Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Omg it's 91L! and it's going to become the next Gustav or Katrina!!! SARCASM.Like some of you all are taking this a little to serious.One blogger thinks it'll have a more significant impact then Ernesto ever will.The hell?.Some good rains and gusty winds for somebody the most.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TWO and intermediate advisory should be out any time now.




MAweatherboy1 there wont be a intermediate advisory has there are no watchs up now so the next one will now be at 5pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting GTcooliebai:
HWRF 108 hrs. poised to shoot the gap or clip western edge of Cuba.

if this pans out we could have a significant hurricane in the yucatan channel
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
This are the EARLY models. The other ones I have a bit more aggresive.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


C FL is as well lightning is going crazy here in Volusia County.

Here in Miami too!!!,a lot of nasty lighting!!!!!!and heavy rain,and when I said NASTY lighting I mean NASTY!!!.
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1 to 2inch of rain at 1:40PM
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
New frame in. Ernesto is still improving in structure and convection each frame.

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Quoting TXCWC:
Any thoughts on why the usually more reliable models(such as GFS) continue to initialize Ernesto incorrectly? 50mph 1002mb tropical storm is very different from a 1009 depression/wave.


Nobody's answering that one.Maybe noone knows. But I would throw them out!
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Quoting Grothar:


I gave you enough hints last night. But that's what friends are for. :P


Kids Gro have short attention span. Some of us posted this days in advance to watchout for the first wave as being a sleeper system.

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Quoting AllStar17:


There won't be an intermediate advisory on Ernesto because the advisories were cancelled.

Good catch, forgot about that.
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Still going with 91L to be pretty much nothing GeorgiaStormz? Warning my folks may have been somewhat unneeded. Yet if this spins up quickly; which it is doing in my opinion, then I'll have done the right thing. Most in Florida weren't aware of this at all. Over warning is better than downplaying what may well become a dangerous storm. This is one of those situations that the NHC hates. Unexpected, close to land, could quickly develop, and even a weak TS can cause major problems and casualties to an unaware public.
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HWRF 108 hrs. poised to shoot the gap or clip western edge of Cuba.

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also BrickellBreeze:

91L is currently situated slightly east of Andros. This is developing right on top of them.


Good call, PP. These are the coordinates

24.0N 78.5W a little more than 100 statute mi SW of Nassau, BA
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91L circulation is begining to become evident on the Miami radar thunderstorms are begining to rotate from east to west in west palm beah and the thunderstorms over MIami dade county/ Broward are moving SE ???
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TWO and intermediate advisory should be out any time now.


There won't be an intermediate advisory on Ernesto because the advisories were cancelled.
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940. emguy
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thanks EM Guy,,I always like your input,it seems well thought out and makes sense to me most of the time....Thanks again..........keep it coming.


Thank you Joe. Your compliment is much appreciated. Will do. Happy tracking :)
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938. 7544
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also BrickellBreeze:

91L is currently situated slightly east of Andros. This is developing right on top of them.


and it going to head west or nw or wnw tia
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TWO and intermediate advisory should be out any time now.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


If 90L and 91L Both get named at 2 (not saying they will) who will be florence and who will be gordon?
Quoting TXCWC:


No competition right now - Ernesto is a fully organized tropical storm and potential hurricane that may still very well have a BIG impact on someone on the US Gulf Coast- 91L is not. Though granted, 91L will probally have a bigger impact "on Florida" than Ernesto. :)


Actually 91L is forecast to cross FL then end up toward the upper TX coast. I watch out as this is the area katrina started taking off and then blew up in the Gulf. You never know sometimes with these systems my friend.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also BrickellBreeze:

91L is currently situated slightly east of Andros. This is developing right on top of them.


Yeah.. 24 Hours is a long time over water... Lets hope Shear kills it.
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(click to enlarge)
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Don't know if NOAA sent one of the Orions down to the Island's yet so keep your eyes/ears open (in South Florida or the Keys) for the Grey HC-130 from Biloxi flying out tommorow towards the Bahamas. I caught them flying across near Tallahassee coming back to base after a mission off of Jax for one of our earlier storms this year.

Those folks/crews are sometimes the most overlooked and unsung heros during H-Season.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also BrickellBreeze:

91L is currently situated slightly east of Andros. This is developing right on top of them.


Correction, slightly west.
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I really think Ernesto will be a different beast tomorrow. I expect further strengthening due to the current moistening trend visible on the water vapor loop and expected lower shear as Ernesto begins to pull away from the high shear area this evening.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It all happened overnight, lol. I was surprised when I woke up to two new circles this morning.


I gave you enough hints last night. But that's what friends are for. :P
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They discontinued the warnings for the islands, but winds were sustained at 38mph, gusting to 53mph at Grantley Adams a half hour ago...
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

but its not a ts though yet!!

It looks like it has sufficient convection and an LLC so it might be one.
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Quoting angiest:


Perhaps GFS is having a resolution problem? The center is apparently quite small, and maybe GFS isn't doing a good job of picking up on it.


That is basically the issue, plus the resolution the images are displayed at. If you look at the pass of Recon this morning that found a 1001.3 mb pressure it started at:

13.817N 61.383W 1006.4mb

and ended at

13.700N 61.577W 1004.5mb

That is a distance of about 19.5 km, the resolution of the GFS is ~27 km, so it can't resolve the 1001.3 mb pressure. Also the met at EMC can add a "bogus" storm that would force the pressure, but I know if no way to determine if they did that or not.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I have my suspicions but these new found trolls are the same regular folks who are on here every day..shame shame shame..


Every day on this blog must drive most to insanity.
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Also BrickellBreeze:

91L is currently situated slightly east of Andros. This is developing right on top of them.
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Quoting angiest:



We are all DOOM.
No way dude....Shower curtain dude..Good to see u posting.
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Here in S LA we don't need the rain. The poor coast just cannot take the pounding of even a TS let alone a cat 3+. Sometimes wish we could skip Aug and Sept.
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921. TXCWC
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think 91L will have a bigger impact across FL and the Gulf Coast US than Ernesto ever will. This is one to watch folks. 91L is much bigger than Ernesto is as well.



No competition right now - Ernesto is a fully organized tropical storm and potential hurricane that may still very well have a BIG impact on someone on the US Gulf Coast- 91L is not. Though granted, 91L will probally have a bigger impact "on Florida" than Ernesto. :)
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Quoting chrisdscane:


this could be very bad for GOM
remember 91L is not being accounted for so florida and the bahamas may be opening up soon as 91L erodes the high
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
918. emguy
Development of 91L or not. It will be nice to get the Recon data for 91L into the models tomorrow. That will be some nice data regarding the conditions of Ernesto's downstream environment.
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Quoting fmhurricane2009:
kannst du bitte zeigen sie uns ... Grothar?

Come on! I used German :)



Well, I'll give you a hint. 4 models move it directly towards the SW coast of Florida. 4 models move directly over the SE coast and 2 models have it moving directly N into Miami-Dade County.

By the way, sie is always capitalized when mean you. . Good German though.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


If 90L and 91L Both get named at 2 (not saying they will) who will be florence and who will be gordon?


They'd probably go in the order of invests. 90L would be Florence and 91L would be Gordon.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


If 90L and 91L Both get named at 2 (not saying they will) who will be florence and who will be gordon?

90L because it was mentioned first.
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Quoting kipperedherring:
Can someone educate me and answer this. I understand that the hurricane eyewall is comprised of thunderstorms circling around a low pressure center, yet I have experienced 4 hurricane eyes pass over me and not once was there any thunder or lightning.

That's because healthy tropical cyclone convection generally lacks the Bergeron Process, which means there is generally no ice crystals involved in the rainmaking process, which in turn helps to keep the charges neutral enough to where there is not extensive lightning.

Here is a good read on warm rain processes (although this particular paper isn't about tropical cyclones, the same mechanics are at work).
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Quoting chrisdscane:


this could be very bad for GOM



We are all DOOM.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Convection is wrapping into 91L from the east. Could have a quick spin up here. Florence may not be that far away folks.

Link


If 90L and 91L Both get named at 2 (not saying they will) who will be florence and who will be gordon?
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I leave for 4 hours, and the tropics EXPLODE....
interesting... I'll be back in 4 more... I expect 90L to be a Hurricane and 91L to be a TD.
lol jk
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The models will shift southward then shift back Northward. This will be a long weekend and week after lol
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this could be very bad for GOM
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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