Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am and getting calls every few minutes from friends and co-workers asking for the latest.

lucky you so far I had about 95 people calling me asking me on the latest
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
man, i've let my guard down on ernesto for the morning and it now appears that this new 91L may have a chance at developing in the gulf as ernesto does as well. i'll be keeping my eyes peeled from texas...
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Tropical Storm Warning going up for SE FL soon maybe today or tomorrow!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4415
1004. ncstorm
Quoting mcluvincane:



The cmc is all over the place


LOL..I would agree with that..
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91L only has a 20% circle on it...is there some reason why so many here are getting worried? Local mets have said it's going to pass over the South FL area over the weekend bringing us welcome rains. I do think it's interesting the analogy that was made to Katrina. Same vicinity and forecast for it to cross the state. We saw what Katrina did, what will Invest 91L do? Hmmmmm....
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
To my untrained eye he looks like he is getting his act together steadily now.


Looks like an eye developing around 14N/62.3W. I think Recon should take off within an hour or so!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7704
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

or gordon....90L will be florence first
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

or gordon....90L will be florence first


Look at post# 790. Very evident where the center is and this could be a douzy in the Gulf from what I am seeing by some of these models heading for you guys.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
90L deserves a code red.Really impressive.It's officially hurricane season ya'll.As soon as it was August.Bam!.Here comes the storms.Busy weeks coming up.


Wash..did you see the 12Z GFS?? as Jason would say "WOW"
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Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z CMC 180 hours out




The cmc is all over the place
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good catch, forgot about that.


Wait they cancelled what?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
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The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* significant weather advisory for...
eastern Palm Beach County

* until 230 PM EDT

* at 137 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected
strong thunderstorms near Lake Worth... moving west at 20 mph.

* The storm will affect...
Lake Worth...
West Palm Beach...
Greenacres City...
Haverhill...
Golden Lakes...
Wellington...
and surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. These winds
can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around unsecured
small objects. Seek shelter until the storm passes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
994. emguy
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Nobody's answering that one.Maybe noone knows. But I would throw them out!


Models like the GFS are likely having a hard time iniallizing Enresto due to his very compact nature. Even on the high resolution, he may be compact enought that the models just can't depict the closed low.

In a sense, they see the larger, broader (non-closed) circulation pattern around Ernesto, but otherwise, he is so small in size that the models just do not see him.
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No advisory for ernesto but 20% for 91L and 50% for 90L
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Could spell bad news for you folks up in the Cayman Islands, I would watch this one closely.

more so in Grand Cayman Island
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Kids Gro have short attention span. Some of us posted this days in advance to watchout for the first wave as being a sleeper system.




I guess you are right. Just gets a little annoying after awhile. One posts an image for 4 days, gives an analysis, and all of a sudden, you see written. "Wow, this is a surprise."

I've really been in a bad mood lately. My tolerance level is getting lowered. Sorry to all the nice bloggers on here. I apologize. I just don't like being referred to as man, or dude by people I do not know. I don't refer to anyone as kid, or buddy. The only people to whom I refer as "twit" are people I like and respect.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Could spell bad news for you folks up in the Cayman Islands, I would watch this one closely.
I am and getting calls every few minutes from friends and co-workers asking for the latest.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting Seflhurricane:
91L circulation is begining to become evident on the Miami radar thunderstorms are begining to rotate from east to west in west palm beah and the thunderstorms over MIami dade county/ Broward are moving SE ???


I see it also, though it may just be thunderstorms expanding and heading in direction,Does anyone else see this?

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50 and 20%
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The East Pac sure has been quiet lately...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I suspect things will pick up out there as El Nino sets in.
what el nino? the pacific hasnt warmed since late june..
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Bad news: Ernesto is having no problem pushing the dry air in front of him out of the way:



And 90L is bringing a nice plume of moisture along with it in the ITCZ towards the Central Atlantic also; makes for a much easier go of it for the ones that may follow. Another classic sign of the swtich being thrown in the Atlantic.
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For us here in South Florida if 91L quickly forms Tropical storm warning would be issued in very very short notice for the Se fla coast but expect ALOT of rain
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Save them Gro for later as the blog can't handle that right now. Especially the people from houston to new orleans.

Here's our center of 91L. I suspect we will have Florence tomorrow if not sooner.


or gordon....90L will be florence first
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
red next to invest 91L AND yellow for maybe invest 92L DOWN THE ROAD!! INVEST 92L WILL BE AT 35 WEST IN YELLOW DOWN THE ROAD!!


Where for possible 92L? When also? BY the way when is the next recon flight into Ernesto?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
To my untrained eye he looks like he is getting his act together steadily now.
Could spell bad news for you folks up in the Cayman Islands, I would watch this one closely.
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90L deserves a code red.Really impressive.It's officially hurricane season ya'll.As soon as it was August.Bam!.Here comes the storms.Busy weeks coming up.
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Quoting Grothar:


Good call, PP. These are the coordinates

24.0N 78.5W a little more than 100 statute mi SW of Nassau, BA



little birdie told me to watch this on in the Bahamas
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The East Pac sure has been quiet lately...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I suspect things will pick up out there as El Nino sets in.
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Quoting Tazmanian:





MAweatherboy1 there wont be a intermediate advisory has there are no watchs up now so the next one will now be at 5pm
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Are the GFDL And HRWF considered good models?
I believe they are some of the best out there for intensity but correct me if I am wrong.
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the 12z CMC 180 hours out

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next model runs should be out vry soon lets see if we have any shifts but some models have a very dangerous hurricane near the yucatan channel
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
HWRF 84 hrs. looks like it has shifted to the right.



Are the GFDL And HRWF considered good models?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Down to 979 mb. heading towards the GOM.

To my untrained eye he looks like he is getting his act together steadily now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting Grothar:
This are the EARLY models. The other ones I have a bit more aggresive.



Save them Gro for later as the blog can't handle that right now. Especially the people from houston to new orleans.

Here's our center of 91L. I suspect we will have Florence tomorrow if not sooner.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Bad news: Ernesto is having no problem pushing the dry air in front of him out of the way:


It has done a good job so far..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Omg it's 91L! and it's going to become the next Gustav or Katrina!!! SARCASM.Like some of you all are taking this a little to serious.One blogger thinks it'll have a more significant impact then Ernesto ever will.The hell?.Some good rains and gusty winds for somebody the most.


With Ernesto headed for Mexico it may never impact FL at all. I think that's what they were trying to say
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Quoting jeffs713:
744.

Why NOLA, and not Pensacola, Mobile, Houston, Corpus Christi, or Brownsville?
They just like terrorizing traumatized people. Anywhere on the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye out, which they do at this time of year.
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966. yoboi
Quoting LSUCaneGirl:
Any thoughts on a SE Louisiana landfall? I know it's REALLY early still..our local emergency preparedness office has already activated it's team to monitor Ernesto..so what are some of your thoughts?


ya better worry about 91L right now...tracks coming our way to la
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Bad news: Ernesto is having no problem pushing the dry air in front of him out of the way:

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Down to 979 mb. heading towards the GOM.

not good
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Though the either or scenario on Ernesto is still in doubt...I think Ernessto will be a formidable storm. The NHC always down plays intensity longe range because the models tell them so. If he gets in the Gulf...Northwestward he will go. Take it to the bank.
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Hallo all. Some activity at last.
I've been just peeking in from time to time this season, but will be watching now.
As ever, thanks for the conversation and great links.
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Down to 979 mb. heading towards the GOM.

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959. TXCWC
Quoting angiest:


Perhaps GFS is having a resolution problem? The center is apparently quite small, and maybe GFS isn't doing a good job of picking up on it.


That was my thinking as well - but I also thought the initilization data was actually placed into it.
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Any thoughts on a SE Louisiana landfall? I know it's REALLY early still..our local emergency preparedness office has already activated it's team to monitor Ernesto..so what are some of your thoughts?
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Omg it's 91L! and it's going to become the next Gustav or Katrina!!! SARCASM.Like some of you all are taking this a little to serious.One blogger thinks it'll have a more significant impact then Ernesto ever will.The hell?.Some good rains and gusty winds for somebody the most.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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