Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1057 - 1007

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Quoting hurricanejunky:


I know...you quoted that message before I changed it. DOH!

Lol some of us are pretty quick at finding typos within seconds!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh my....

The Atlantic tropics are exploding! I did a tropical update this morning (my 70th of the season so far)...check it out if you want. I've gotten positive reviews on the detail I leave in there...let me know what you think too...I am only doing this because of bloggers like you....

I will be doing a special update later this afternoon (because of 90L and 91L)...and then a full update early tomorrow morning....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think 91L will develop into a named system, but it will still provide gusty winds and heavy rain for FL.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC will probably put up Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches for Jamaica either tonight or tomorrow morning. I think it's within the 36-48 time period now.
very likely at 5Pm he has not slowed down and its well within the 36 hrs expect TS watches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks.like.ernesto.going.to.the.boc.stall.for.a.few .days.then.come.north.hits.e.texas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. 7544
91L getting hot towers at this hour could it become a td while still around andors is. ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1051. hydrus
Quoting angiest:


When there's a storm brewing that might pose a threat to us I post forecast charts or model plots on my cube. I wonder when someone will notice that I have two different ones up now.
This is the latest GFS run. It has Ernesto striking Mexico about 200 miles south of Texas. Which I do not think will pan out. There will be a more W-NW movement when it reaches the Western Caribbean. I am wondering if this system will make it to 25 degrees north while in the gulf. If so, Southern Texas will have something to watch. That ridge over Texas is a staunch one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ST2K your hyping 91L up waaay to much..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
91L won't be nothing much then some Gusty rain showers for someone.It won't be the next Katrina or Gustav..


;) DOOOOOMMMMMMMM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW take a look at the pull/fetch 91L has
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HE he lol
Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL

wait we have 2 JasonisCOOLman in here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. GetReal


Ernesto is a very compact and small circulation. The COC is directly underneath the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


All our parrot ever says to me is, "Your late, you jerk"



LOL, I'd show him a roasting pan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Expect TS watches to go up for jamaica later today because of Ernesto's forward speed after that Hurricane Watches may be needed for the caymans but i think it would likely be TS watches first
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC will probably put up Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches for Jamaica either tonight or tomorrow morning. I think it's within the 36-48 time period now.

Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Do you have to use so many exclaimation points just to prove your point?
Instead of trying to yell and get noticed... Try posting something Intelligent, that gets people's attention... As that stuff that you do, gets you ignored.


I would recommend refraining from scolding or talking to Jason

I believe jason has a mental issue, he is not a simple troll. Posting on the blogs, is his life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

91L is up to 20%


I know...you quoted that message before I changed it. DOH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pocamocca:

Got one in tropic chat as we speak.

LOL


LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pocamocca:

Got one in tropic chat as we speak.

LOL
WOW!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NHC will probably put up Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches for Jamaica either tonight or tomorrow morning. I think it's within the 36-48 time period now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thats what i been trying to say guys there no watch so no 2pm updates
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Expect TS watches to go up for jamaica later today because of Ernesto's forward speed after that Hurricane Watches may be needed for the caymans but i think it would likely be TS watches first
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Look at post# 790. Very evident where the center is and this could be a douzy in the Gulf from what I am seeing by some of these models heading for you guys.
91L won't be nothing much then some Gusty rain showers for someone.It won't be the next Katrina or Gustav..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Do you have to use so many exclaimation points just to prove your point?
Instead of trying to yell and get noticed... Try posting something Intelligent, that gets people's attention... As that stuff that you do, gets you ignored.
At least he slowed down on bold and WOW!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I 91L has a very evident center on radar. This could pull a Humberto. SE FL better be on guard with this one.


It will not get stronger than 50mph if it does form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Why no 2PM advisory for Ernesto?

They discontinued Warnings and watches on the islands... so no intermediate advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1030. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:


All our parrot ever says to me is, "Your late, you jerk"



make some parrot and sausage gumbo....would solve that problem
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


Wash..did you see the 12Z GFS?? as Jason would say "WOW"
LOL

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tropical Storm Warning going up for SE FL soon maybe today or tomorrow!!!
wait we have 2 JasonisCOOLman in here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

they changed it from 03/1800Z to 03/2200Z

What does that mean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Why no 2PM advisory for Ernesto?
tropical storm Warnings were discontinued for the islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Why no 2PM advisory for Ernesto?


no watches or warnings. Next advisory is 5:00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I 91L has a very evident center on radar. This could pull a Humberto. SE FL better be on guard with this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
red next to invest 91L AND yellow for maybe invest 92L DOWN THE ROAD!! INVEST 92L WILL BE AT 35 WEST IN YELLOW DOWN THE ROAD!!

Do you have to use so many exclaimation points just to prove your point?
Instead of trying to yell and get noticed... Try posting something Intelligent, that gets people's attention... As that stuff that you do, gets you ignored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tropical Storm Warning going up for SE FL soon maybe today or tomorrow!!!
not at all 91L has lots to go but if it forms quickly warnings would be issued in very short notice but i dought it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Wait they cancelled what?

Why no 2PM advisory for Ernesto?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


All our parrot ever says to me is, "Your late, you jerk"

ROFLMBO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

well this is going too be some in too watch





and we have other storm too watch the E storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like an eye developing around 14N/62.3W. I think Recon should take off within an hour or so!

they changed it from 03/1800Z to 03/2200Z
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12717
ERNESTO is too lol
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Why 91L is so disorganized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1016. 7544
911 20% now hmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
91L only has a 10% circle on it...is there some reason why so many here are getting worried? Local mets have said it's going to pass over the South FL area over the weekend bringing us welcome rains. I do think it's interesting the analogy that was made to Katrina. Same vicinity and forecast for it to cross the state. We saw what Katrina did, what will Invest 91L do? Hmmmmm....

20% now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think we will have Florence tomorrow folks!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Wait they cancelled what?

TS warnings for the islands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW hey 91L big rain for me now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tropical Storm Warning going up for SE FL soon maybe today or tomorrow!!!

Why 91L is so disorganized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1009. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



little birdie told me to watch this on in the Bahamas


All our parrot ever says to me is, "Your late, you jerk"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
91L only has a 10% circle on it...is there some reason why so many here are getting worried? Local mets have said it's going to pass over the South FL area over the weekend bringing us welcome rains. I do think it's interesting the analogy that was made to Katrina. Same vicinity and forecast for it to cross the state. We saw what Katrina did, what will Invest 91L do? Hmmmmm....

91L is up to 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am and getting calls every few minutes from friends and co-workers asking for the latest.

lucky you so far I had about 95 people calling me asking me on the latest
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12717

Viewing: 1057 - 1007

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron