Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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And all of a sudden from virtually nothing to discuss in the month of July all or a sudden we now got 3 systems in the Atlantic......... well done Atlantic... way to show the weather annalist u still got it!
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Quoting islander101010:
91.another.landfaller?



vary likey if it fourms
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3 of 5
Quoting islander101010:
91.another.landfaller?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
TS even hurricane CANNOT be ruled out for 91L before impacting FL.

It cannot be ruled out for to become a storm yes...
Hurricane - hell no
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1103. ncstorm
the Euro is running fast today

120 hours

144
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I mean really look at 91L and then look at Ernesto.


What exactly am I looking for? Ernesto has a closed circulation with TS force winds, this doesn't, it's that simple. Calm down, this will not be the end of the world.
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Quoting yoboi:


91L might be something too watch...



yep
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91.another.landfaller?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



this is not your evere day blob that will poof a way in 6 or 12hrs
It's hard to know that because of half of Floridian bloggers overhyping this flipping storm. I can't get an educated discussion about 91L because S2KT is overhyping it.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Euro initializes Ernesto at 1008mb... What is wrong with these models???



the mode runs needs too go see a docer
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
91L about to take off folks.



Those thunderstorms are right over the center unlike Ernesto. This will take off very fast Se FL get ready!
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1095. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




91L is looking better


91L might be something too watch...
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models for ernesto trending North coming very close to over jamaica
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Euro initializes Ernesto at 1008mb... What is wrong with these models???
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1092. ncstorm
72 hours
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
TS even hurricane CANNOT be ruled out for 91L before impacting FL.
Dude please calm down.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL 12z has Ernesto going northward in the eastern GOM, while the UKMET has it going towards central Texas.
I think the global models are having trouble resolving Ernesto's small circulation which is causing run to run inconsistencies in their track. This situation may be better suited for the hurricane models, but time will tell.
Recent satellite imagery showing some good convection developing as Ernesto heads into increasing TCHP.

Hey Drak. How strong do you think Ernesto could get in the NW Caribbean and Gulf? Is a major hurricane a real possibility here with extremely high OHC in that region?
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1089. Patrap
ZOOM and Boxes are active

Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Remember this morning when Ernesto consisted of little more than a small thunderstorm complex... I bet recon finds 55-60mph winds when they get out there if Ernesto doesn't start weakning:



I mean really look at 91L and then look at Ernesto.

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Drak....good to hear from ya. Always love to hear your imput....What's your thinking for Ernesto?? A Gulf storm?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Why no 2PM for ERNESTO???




no watch or warnings so no 2pm update
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Will RECON head into Ernesto today?
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL 12z has Ernesto going northward in the eastern GOM, while the UKMET has it going towards central Texas.
I think the global models are having trouble resolving Ernesto's small circulation which is causing run to run inconsistencies in their track. This situation may be better suited for the hurricane models, but time will tell.
Recent satellite imagery showing some good convection developing as Ernesto heads into increasing TCHP.
i also dont hink the models are taking into account the weakness 91L is going to generate near florida , which should cause the high to erode some
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Nice little flair right over the center, although it needs to continue to grow and maintain itself now for strengthening to take place in any sort of regular fashion.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's just another flipping blob that will poof away after 6-12 hours. CHILL.



this is not your evere day blob that will poof a way in 6 or 12hrs
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1081. ncstorm
is Ernesto moving north?
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Why no 2PM for ERNESTO???
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91L about to take off folks.

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Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL 12z has Ernesto going northward in the eastern GOM, while the UKMET has it going towards central Texas.
I think the global models are having trouble resolving Ernesto's small circulation which is causing run to run inconsistencies in their track. This situation may be better suited for the hurricane models, but time will tell.
Recent satellite imagery showing some good convection developing as Ernesto heads into increasing TCHP.


Nice to see you here again. I always appreciate your input.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think 91L will develop into a named system, but it will still provide gusty winds and heavy rain for FL.



nice outflow all of a sudden, looks like debby did before forming
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Quoting 7544:
91L getting hot towers at this hour could it become a td while still around andors is. ?


They don't listen. 91L is the sleeper that some of us were referring to earlier this week.
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Remember this morning when Ernesto consisted of little more than a small thunderstorm complex... I bet recon finds 55-60mph winds when they get out there if Ernesto doesn't start weakening:

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1074. ncstorm
12z Euro running



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Quoting StormTracker2K:
TS even hurricane CANNOT be ruled out for 91L before impacting FL.
It's just another flipping blob that will poof away after 6-12 hours. CHILL.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFDL 12z has Ernesto going northward in the eastern GOM, while the UKMET has it going towards central Texas.
I think the global models are having trouble resolving Ernesto's small circulation which is causing run to run inconsistencies in their track. This situation may be better suited for the hurricane models, but time will tell.
Recent satellite imagery showing some good convection developing as Ernesto heads into increasing TCHP.
good to see you drak
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think 91L will develop into a named system, but it will still provide gusty winds and heavy rain for FL.



If Tropical Storm Bonnie was a Tropical Storm, than this definitively has a chance to become a named system. :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think 91L will develop into a named system, but it will still provide gusty winds and heavy rain for FL.

.well.on.the.way
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Quoting TXCWC:


That was my thinking as well - but I also thought the initilization data was actually placed into it.


C'mon its a 1002mb TS!!!!!!!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Conditions surrounding 91L are much better than they are with Ernesto. I would expect 91L to ramp up very fast over the next 24 hours. Based on this radar image east of Andros Island.



Lots of energy here folks.
agree
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1067. Drakoen
GFDL 12z has Ernesto going northward in the eastern GOM, while the UKMET has it going towards central Texas.
I think the global models are having trouble resolving Ernesto's small circulation which is causing run to run inconsistencies in their track. This situation may be better suited for the hurricane models, but time will tell.
Recent satellite imagery showing some good convection developing as Ernesto heads into increasing TCHP.
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TS even hurricane CANNOT be ruled out for 91L before impacting FL.
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Well, came back to the chat seeing that Jason spammed it... wonderful.
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Quoting GetReal:


Ernesto is a very compact and small circulation. The COC is directly underneath the convection.

Sign of good organization
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Conditions surrounding 91L are much better than they are with Ernesto. I would expect 91L to ramp up very fast over the next 24 hours. Based on this radar image east of Andros Island.



Lots of energy here folks.




91L is looking better
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC will probably put up Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches for Jamaica either tonight or tomorrow morning. I think it's within the 36-48 time period now.

Most likely tomorrow.
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Conditions surrounding 91L are much better than they are with Ernesto. I would expect 91L to ramp up very fast over the next 24 hours. Based on this radar image east of Andros Island.



Lots of energy here folks.
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1060. 19N81W
I though shear was supposed to drop seems like the models that forecast shear have a hard time
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had to get that out, it's good to have a little laugh in here once in a while.
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1058. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
WOW!!!


You forgot to BOLD it GT..gives it more flair..
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I know...you quoted that message before I changed it. DOH!

Lol some of us are pretty quick at finding typos within seconds!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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