Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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And just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water.
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Time: 14:13:30Z
Coordinates: 14.9667N 67.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,576 meters (~ 5,171 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.0 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 135° at 50 knots (From the SE at ~ 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: 16.8°C (~ 62.2°F)
Dew Pt: 9.9°C (~ 49.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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5155. tea3781
46.8 knots (~ 53.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

Found 54mph winds on last pass
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Quoting Jedkins01:
lol
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Quoting allancalderini:
Agree do you think it will bring rain to me?
Possible... depends on how close it gets on the way 2 MX.... haven't seen roatangardener [blogger] in here yet, so probably u guys won't get too much....
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


many people here are exited on tracking this storm...don't ruin the day please.

Many people here have him on ignore, including me. I wonder why.




Active Storms:

ERNESTO 05L T3.0/3.0 04/1145Z Atlantic
FLORENCE 06L T2.5/2.5 04/1145Z Atlantic
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Tropical Storm Florence
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5149. ncstorm
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ernesto is generating 99& of the comments due to its proximity to CONUS.


It hasnt even passed the islands yet..I always look at this way, if the models arent pointing to you..be afraid..probably where the storm will end up..hence Texas or Florida according to the map below

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Quoting gordydunnot:
91L is getting some life on the Melbourne radar. Looks to be just east of there.



call it ex 91L has 91L been drop
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spin
Quoting LargoFl:
..is that the radar or is there a lil spin on this now?
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Quoting scott39:
To say ernesto is going to die into an open wave.....is more than laughable....it is idiotic!



I hope nobody said that.

I certainly said no such thing.


I currently expect at least a cat 2 eventually, and if it threads the Yucatan Channel without the eye hitting land it will almost certainly be more than that at some point.

I still think Cat 2 landfall if it heads to Mexico or Belize.

Cat 2 landfall in Cuba if it hooks too hard and hits Cuba before the Channel.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



i would re move that if you dont want too get bannd too marh going on and that dos not have any thing too do with the weather
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91L is getting some life on the Melbourne radar. Looks to be just east of there.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Florence up to 45mph right?maybe she will give us a surprise like lisa of 2010.If this system dissipates it will bring more problem in my opinion because it can regenerate later and become something to watch out.


Possible. Andrew had a tough time at first.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
good news!! Ernesto has weakened winds down to 50 mph at 11am and maybe down to a tropical wave tonight!!


many people here are exited on tracking this storm...don't ruin the day please.
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5140. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Doing good now
..is that the radar or is there a lil spin on this now?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting allancalderini:
Florence up to 45mph right?maybe she will give us a surprise like lisa of 2010.If this system dissipates it will bring more problem in my opinion because it can regenerate later and become something to watch out.



yep
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5138. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Doing good now
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5136. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Tropical Storm Ernesto (Early-Cycle Statistic and Dynamic Models): HWRF & GFDL Eastern-Central GOM landfall (favored). The rest Yucatan Peninsula




Tropical Storm Ernesto (Early-Cycle Intensity Models):
LGEM & GFTI show Cat. 3 Hurricane




Tropical Storm Florence (Track Models):



Tropical Storm Florence (Intensity Models):

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's safe to say that rapid, if not explosive, intensification is possible once Ernesto enters the Northwest Caribbean. Environmental conditions will be more than favorable. The GFDL brings it up to Category 4 intensity now.


I agree. His overall structure right now looks good on satellite despite the dry air (still has a pretty good CDO), and he has increased in size. Once he slows down, reaches warmer waters and less dry air, there is really nothing stopping him from RI...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



wind shear is more then 30kt right now



An ULL should move southwest into mexico and that should ballon a large anticyclone in the western carribean and gulf which should keep the environment moist and well for ernseto to intensify
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The upper level low causing this wind shear is backing southwest.



oh ok
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Ernesto is generating 99& of the comments due to its proximity to CONUS.


I have a blog about Florence if anyone wants to discuss that storm.

Link
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5129. 7544
Quoting 7544:
thanks largo

looks like 91l wants to build again hmmmm may still have a chance but looks more like a n fl event if it does
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6701
Gotta run, but also gotta say, I think I picked the PERFECT time for some time off... 3 systems and complex interactions to watch to my heart's content... lol

see u guys later....

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We are very active for a low point in Atlantic MJO---Only beginning of August. Its up from here!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 06, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 146N, 300W, 40, 1002, TS
Florence up to 45mph right?maybe she will give us a surprise like lisa of 2010.If this system dissipates it will bring more problem in my opinion because it can regenerate later and become something to watch out.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



wind shear is more then 30kt right now



The upper level low causing this wind shear is backing southwest.
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Quoting scott39:
Ernesto looks better than a 50mph TS


But recon says otherwise.
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5123. Patrap
13:45 UTC Viz shows some Bones exposed

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
5122. ncstorm
Crazzzyy!!

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Quoting tennisgirl08:


You're right. It is dry air...but question is can he survive it?


He has been dealing with dry air since before he formed. If he could form into what we are seeing now with all this dry air around, imagine what could happen once Ernesto gets himself out of the dry pocket...
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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I see there is almost 5100 comments and then I see we have TS florence in addition to Ernesto..no wonder..

Ernesto is generating 99& of the comments due to its proximity to CONUS.
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5119. 7544
thanks largo
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hey 91L!!


looks like 91l wants to build again hmmmm may still have a chance
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6701
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's safe to say that rapid, if not explosive, intensification is possible once Ernesto enters the Northwest Caribbean. Environmental conditions will be more than favorable. The GFDL brings it up to Category 4 intensity now.



wind shear is more then 30kt right now


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Quoting wxchaser97:
He should be able to but once he hits the west Caribbean, no matter happens before, expect strengthening to happen.


Yes, but how will his weakening (for the time being) affect his future track? This is why I think the models have him going west all the way. It will take some time for him to recover from the dry air intrusion. The dry air might be the savior here to prevent a CONUS landfall.
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5116. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:04Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 25

14:05:00Z 14.667N 68.100W 842.8 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,564 meters
(~ 5,131 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 117° at 28 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 32.2 mph) 16.2°C
(~ 61.2°F) 9.3°C
(~ 48.7°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 16 mm/hr
(~ 0.63 in/hr) 34.5 knots (~ 39.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 123.3%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 13:55:30Z (first observation), the observation was 306 miles (492 km) to the SSE (162°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

At 14:05:00Z (last observation), the observation was 289 miles (465 km) to the SSE (156°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ernesto's likely to hit Yucatan even if intensifies...
Agree do you think it will bring rain to me?
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I think it's safe to say that rapid, if not explosive, intensification is possible once Ernesto enters the Northwest Caribbean. Environmental conditions will be more than favorable. The GFDL brings it up to Category 4 intensity now.
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i know its early in the game but what do yall think the odds are now on it hitting mexico or the U.S.
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AL, 06, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 146N, 300W, 40, 1002, TS
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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Pretty much right over the center.

Expect more bursts like that as Ernesto tries to pinch off the gap of dry air over it's NW quadrant.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:


Split three ways...
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Quoting allancalderini:
Ernesto may intensify but if it doesn`t make it fast would probably make landfall at Yucatan or Belize.91L is pretty much dead right now.
Ernesto's likely to hit Yucatan even if intensifies...
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Quoting Patrap:


So that's why it rained for 10 seconds!! I was wondering bout that random shower.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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