Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is almost as active as the West Pacific.


It will be officially more active once Saola dies...
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Quoting ncstorm:
goodness..Ernesto has been fired already?

Why freak out over a storm that is easily 3-4 days from any kind of imminent threat, when you have a thunderstorm complex that is a mere 20% yellow circle a few hundred miles away.

One has a potential to become an apocolyptocane... the other is more likely to not generate into anything, probability-wise. BUT IT IS CLOSE TO FL.
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Quoting Patrap:
Def don't want 91L to wind up too fast, and get any momentum w to wnw, bad tings can happen and unexpectedly.

Welcome to The Mayan 2012 Atlantic Swirl-a-palooza.

Well put!!!,simple but to the point!.
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Where is LEVI when you need him.......
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Euro initializes Ernesto at 1008mb... What is wrong with these models???


Global models do not have the resolution to accurately model the core of a small cyclone.
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
91L looks like a TD u guys think

It has lots of nice convection but there is no real structure of any sort in there. I haven't checked surface pressured for that area, but that would be a good area to look if things appear to gain any organization since there are plentiful surface obs in that region. The thunderstorms are nice, but pretty thunderstorms with cold cloudtops do not alone make a tropical cyclone.
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1151. ncstorm
goodness..Ernesto has been fired already?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Soon!!

no.
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The Atlantic is almost as active as the West Pacific.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maybe bolding and big wording makes it seen...

There is no 2PM AST Intermediate Advisory On Tropical Storm Ernesto Because All Tropical Cyclone Watches And Warnings Were Discontinued At 11AM AST.

I need bigger letters. Maybe flashy letters, too.

Ooh! CAPS!
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1147. yoboi
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It looks real good, I'm certainly not denying that.. Lots of rain and some gusty winds on the way for FL... It just doesn't meet the qualifications for a tropical storm.


neither did humberto...but looked what happened
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


why
Because people are too stupid to read.
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1145. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maybe bolding and big wording makes it seen...

There is no 2PM AST Intermediate Adivosry On Tropical Storm Ernesto Because All Tropical Cyclone Watches And Warnings Were Discontinued At 11AM AST.


ok im on the floor now imao too much
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1144. Patrap
Def don't want 91L to wind up too fast, and get any momentum w to wnw, bad tings can happen and unexpectedly.

Welcome to The Mayan 2012 Atlantic Swirl-a-palooza.

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Quoting floridaboy14:
Why hasnt the 2pm advisory on ernesto come out?

ok go and look at the 11am advisory at the botton where they have next advisory and you will see
plus no watches or warning have been issued
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
6:00PM
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What time is that then?
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Quoting hydrus:
This could twist up quick.
Could this become something today?
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. nvm, there are no watches anywhere
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Rainy any cloudy here in Fort Lauderdale Florida. Not much wind at all with 91L off the coast. I guess that will change in the next 6-12 hours.

The straits of FL are very warm with the gulf stream right there, if it sits tight for long enough it just might become TS status.

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Quoting floridaboy14:
Why hasnt the 2pm advisory on ernesto come out?

They only issue Intermediate advisories during watches or warning situations... The Islands' TS warnings were dropped.
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1137. yoboi
Quoting 7544:


agree isnt this the area katrina started ?


i live in la and 91L has my eye more than ernesto it's really firing since last night..
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Quoting ncstorm:
According to Allan's site..the frames have already loaded?? and it says August 3 with the first frame..

216 hours


240 hours

Why can't it be this fast every day, lol.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


1008 at the center or the smallest isobar?

Yep... It starts it out as little more than an open wave.
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Soon!!
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
91L looks like a TD u guys think
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hurricane hunters changed there flight into ernesto from 1800Z to 2200Z
What time is that then?
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1133. hydrus
This could twist up quick.
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I do not think that 91L is going to be a named storm on the Atlantic coast anytime soon. The low is sandwiched near a large ULL in the NW quadrant causing sheer and Florida to the West where it is headed. If you look at the current hi-rez loops, you can see a broad circulation SE of the Florida Keys slowly rotating to the NW as discussed in the NHC discussion but headed towards Florida Bay. Finally, the closet bouy (off Mollasses Reef in the Keys) is holding steady with winds of 7-8 knots.

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2012 17:00:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110°) at 7.0 kt gusting to 8.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.99 in and steady
Air Temperature: 86.2 F
Water Temperature: 86.4 F



What may happen on the Gulf side is another matter but South and Central Florida are going to be on the "dirty" side as the low crosses into the Gulf whether it develops or not. Lots of rain and gusty conditions regardless going into the weekend for those folks.



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Maybe bolding and big wording makes it seen...

There is no 2PM AST Intermediate Advisory On Tropical Storm Ernesto Because All Tropical Cyclone Watches And Warnings Were Discontinued At 11AM AST.
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Quoting yoboi:
91L is really starting to fire on all cylinders....

It looks real good, I'm certainly not denying that.. Lots of rain and some gusty winds on the way for FL... It just doesn't meet the qualifications for a tropical storm.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
50 or 60MPH but hurricane 3%

Hurricane 0% Might become a 60 mph... i can agree with that... I just don't trust these type of systems... Very unpredictable if they will be called a storm or not.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
Why hasnt the 2pm advisory on ernesto come out?


Because there are no watches or warnings issued.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Euro initializes Ernesto at 1008mb... What is wrong with these models???


1008 at the center or the smallest isobar?
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1126. ncstorm
According to Allan's site..the frames have already loaded?? and it says August 3 with the first frame..

216 hours


240 hours
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Quoting floridaboy14:
Why hasnt the 2pm advisory on ernesto come out?



there are NO watch or warnings out so there will not be any 2pm update so the next update will be 5pm
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Ernesto is getting his act together. It's becoming an average sized storm now rather than small.
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e.central.florida.been.hit.by.alot.of.hurricanes..b ut.no.majors.that.i.know.about
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

What does that mean?

hurricane hunters changed there flight into ernesto from 1800Z to 2200Z
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 3August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 1004millibars to 1002millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 279.9*West@27.3mph(44km/h) to 266.8*West@19.1mph(30.7km/h)

FDF-Martinique :: SLU-St.Lucia-UVF :: BGI-Barbados :: SVD-St.Vincent :: CIW-Canouan

The Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is TropicalStormErnesto's most recent position

2August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage 9.6miles(15.4kilometres)North of Barbados
3August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage 12.3miles(19.8kilometres)North of Barbados
3August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over PraslinBay,St.Lucia
3August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed 5.1miles(8.2kilometres)South of St.Lucia and was heading for passage 17.2miles(27.7kilometres)North of Aruba. (Copy&paste aua, cur, bon, svd, slu, bgi, 13.7n59.8w-13.6n61.5w, 13.7n59.8w-12.872n70.082w, 12.623n70.055w-12.872n70.082w into the GreatCircleMapper for the Aruba mapping)
Copy&paste vqs, ngd, axa, bbq, anu, ptp, dom, fdf, slu-13.871n60.88w, uvf-13.708n60.947w, svd, bgi-13.335n59.613w-13.474n59.601w, 13.335n59.613w-13.512n59.596w, 12.9n53.6w-13.1n55.5w, 13.1n55.5w-13.3n57.4w, 13.3n57.4w-13.7n59.8w, 13.7n59.8w-13.634n60.943w-13.6n61.5w, 13.708n60.947w-13.634n60.943w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
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pressures along the se Fla coast buoys are not dropping..as of now. hence the 20 %.
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1119. 7544
Quoting yoboi:
91L is really starting to fire on all cylinders....


agree isnt this the area katrina started ?
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91L looks like a TD u guys think
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1117. hydrus
I forgot to post the latest GFS. I wanted to show the trough forecast at 240. If this materializes, it will be a player for sure if a storm threatens the U.S.
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Why hasnt the 2pm advisory on ernesto come out?
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Yes it is
Quoting yoboi:
91L is really starting to fire on all cylinders....
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1113. yoboi
91L is really starting to fire on all cylinders....
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1112. Patrap
There be some B-A-D Mojo afoot yeah..


Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop


91L Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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Someones taking 91L too seriously! Take it easy!!!
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50 or 60MPH but hurricane 3%
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It cannot be ruled out for to become a storm yes...
Hurricane - hell no
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Quoting ncstorm:
the Euro is running fast today

120 hours

144

Another unrealistic Central american, run... hmm
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Quoting ncstorm:
72 hours
Look at Florence.Minded her business just like we like to see.
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And all of a sudden from virtually nothing to discuss in the month of July all or a sudden we now got 3 systems in the Atlantic......... well done Atlantic... way to show the weather annalist u still got it!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.