Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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1207. Patrap
ATCF cleared the Board, or somebody dropped a Keyboard maybe.

: )
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These storms are insane!! Geesh lightning is the worst I've seen in a long time here.

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Wind Fields for Ernesto
Last Updated On 8/3/2012 10:58:28 AM

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at ernesto by the 5pm advisory we could have a 60mph or a 70mph TS and if continues we may get a 75mph Cat 1 Ernesto at 8pm or 11pm
oh yeah I expect TS watches to go up for Jamaica or the Eastern half of Jamaica at the 5pm advisory or 8pm

Yeah...no...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not much change but location for Ernesto:

AL, 05, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 138N, 633W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,

And the African orange is about the same, as well...

AL, 90, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 128N, 260W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


there is no 8PM adv. if warnings are not issued at 5 PM
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Newbie here in Eastern NC. Geographer not Met. What, if any, are the chances a front drags 91L towards the Carolina's?
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1201. hydrus
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFDL taking a right hook?
I am still looking. I do believe that if 91L moves across Florida into the gulf, Ernesto will jog to the north a bit more than forecast, if it lifts out to the north and east, high pressure may build in behind it and keep Ernesto on a more southerly track. If Ernesto becomes a hurricane sooner than predicted, that too may take it on the northern side of the forecast track.
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1200. Patrap
Stand By...
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Ernesto is looking nice this afternoon. Much better presentation than earlier.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10283
Every frame Ernesto is looking better.

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It will be interesting to see if Ernesto stays the same or begins to develop more over the next 12 hours. As some have suggested after it reaches 70 W, which should be about 2 AM Sat'
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I wish the models would quit with the initialization issues. They're putting a southern bias to the track that shouldn't be there.
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1144 -

The Mayan 2012 Atlantic Swirl-a-palooza...

LOL!
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Quoting LloydBentsen:
Does Ernesto's westward speed hurt its chances of developing rapidly?

by the looks of it maybe not
Quoting hydrus:


I expect that forecast track to shift a tad N and E

Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 05, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 138N, 633W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,

AL, 90, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 128N, 260W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


hmm very close to where the COC of ernest is right now its at 14.0N 63.5W moving W-N of due W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
1192. Patrap
AL052012 - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop




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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hype much?
It sounds more reasonable then people calling 91L a hurricane when it's still a sheared system.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 3rd, with Video
Thanks Levi!
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1189. WxLogic
91L could greatly influence Ernesto's track. Depending on how quick it gets it's act together (if it does).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at ernesto by the 5pm advisory we could have a 60mph or a 70mph TS and if continues we may get a 75mph Cat 1 Ernesto at 8pm or 11pm
oh yeah I expect TS watches to go up for Jamaica or the Eastern half of Jamaica at the 5pm advisory or 8pm

What do u think will happen with the invests
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 3rd, with Video


Thank You. I was typing as you posted......... :)
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1186. hydrus
There is a little area of high pressure near 91L.
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1185. Thrawst
And the thunderstorm begins. Told ya.
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I post occasionally but mainly read the message board - but I have a question for those who know:

IF 91L develops, wouldn't that create a weakness in the ridge and allow Ernesto to move further north?

It hasn't developed yet and it may not, but if it were to develop, wouldn't it create a hole in the ridge to follow or is Ernesto too far south to be bothered?

Thanks.
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1183. emguy
Just a quick model discussion...thoughts to consider...

It goes without saying that some models are more reliable overall, but also important to consider that certain types of models are better performers in certain situations.

In this case, Ernesto is a small and compact system, that is more vulnerable to interactions with it's local weather environment. There are two models that specifically focus on this, these being the GFDL and HWRF. So, it is likely that these will be the front runners on performance for Ernesto.

Now, it is important to note that both of these models had a real problem the last 2 years, where they basically ran away with intensity and tried to turn almost every storm into something major. Which was an issue since storms of different intensities interact with their surrounding environments differently.

That said, major modifications were made to these models over the winter and the problem appears to have been resolved. In fact, these models seem to be depicting the potential future intensity of Ernesto quite well.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at ernesto by the 5pm advisory we could have a 60mph or a 70mph TS and if continues we may get a 75mph Cat 1 Ernesto at 8pm or 11pm
oh yeah I expect TS watches to go up for Jamaica or the Eastern half of Jamaica at the 5pm advisory or 8pm

Hype much?
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1181. Patrap
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There he is.....LOL!!! Good to hear from ya LEVI...it's crazy in here right now!!!
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Quoting cat6band:
Where is LEVI when you need him.......


Probably figuring out the large scale synoptic issues that may impact the track of Ernesto when juxtaposed against the effects of 91L.......Or something like that....... He knows what he is talking about and I do not expect him to come out of left field with the Fujiwhara Effect theory........... :)
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1178. GetReal




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1177. LargoFl
......................still ok over here by me,sunny and HOT
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Quoting hydrus:


GFDL taking a right hook?
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1175. Patrap
ATCF has cleared both the Statistical and Dynamic Boards of the 12Z Runs, and the 18 Z pkg should load shortly.

er, fer Ernesto


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Quoting Doppler22:
Haha so it looks like we could have Ernesto, Florence and Gordon here soon... geez it seems as if As soon as August hit mother nature flipped the storm switch...
..unknown.not.mojo
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looking at ernesto by the 5pm advisory we could have a 60mph or a 70mph TS and if continues we may get a 75mph Cat 1 Ernesto at 8pm or 11pm
oh yeah I expect TS watches to go up for Jamaica or the Eastern half of Jamaica at the 5pm advisory or 8pm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Not much change but location for Ernesto:

AL, 05, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 138N, 633W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,

And the African orange is about the same, as well...

AL, 90, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 128N, 260W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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1171. Levi32
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 3rd, with Video
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1170. hydrus
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is almost as active as the West Pacific.


One of those on the WPac is inland too, so it should die relatively soon, which would put the Atlantic one invest more than that WPac.

It's certainly dropping lots of rain on its way out though...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
90L is up to T1.5/1.5. Getting very close to tropical depression status.

03/1745 UTC 13.3N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

91L started with "Too weak".

03/1745 UTC 24.4N 78.3W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

Ernesto is finally up to T2.5/2.5, which would support tropical storm status. Probably means it is up to 60 mph since Dvorak intensity estimates have been lacking.

03/1745 UTC 13.9N 63.2W T2.5/2.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic


Gonna go for awhile...
My thoughts -

Ernesto 60 mph by 11 pm tonight...
90L will be a TD by 5 am tomorrow morning...
and 91L will not form within the next 2 days.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


How about for track?
Not sure sorry.
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Quoting Patrap:
Def don't want 91L to wind up too fast, and get any momentum w to wnw, bad tings can happen and unexpectedly.

Welcome to The Mayan 2012 Atlantic Swirl-a-palooza.

Pat don't tell me you joined the hype club.
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Haha so it looks like we could have Ernesto, Florence and Gordon here soon... geez it seems as if As soon as August hit mother nature flipped the storm switch...
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I believe they are some of the best out there for intensity but correct me if I am wrong.


How about for track?
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90L is up to T1.5/1.5. Getting very close to tropical depression status.

03/1745 UTC 13.3N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

91L started with "Too weak".

03/1745 UTC 24.4N 78.3W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

Ernesto is finally up to T2.5/2.5, which would support tropical storm status. Probably means it is up to 60 mph since Dvorak intensity estimates have been lacking.

03/1745 UTC 13.9N 63.2W T2.5/2.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
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WOW, crazy storm in Jupiter, FL right now. Looks like night time.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
TS even hurricane CANNOT be ruled out for 91L before impacting FL.

Sorry no hurricane for now
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Quoting cat6band:
Where is LEVI when you need him.......



hes busy and he has his own life this like the rest of us
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Does Ernesto's westward speed hurt its chances of developing rapidly?
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lol
Quoting cat6band:
Where is LEVI when you need him.......
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is almost as active as the West Pacific.


It will be officially more active once Saola dies...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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