Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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1257. LargoFl
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if 90l forms will it be a fish storm??
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1255. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto


Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Ernesto looking nice.Will it continue the pattern of dying off at night?.
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Haven't been posting much, just check in to see what's up. Thought someone was making a joke about all the circles, sure got busy fast.
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Quoting Levi32:


Dry air.

Even so, global model consensus on the overall environment in front of a system can be powerful. Even initialized weak, the models should be showing intensification of the low if the environment supported it. I don't think it does, and the global models support staying near the status quo until it reaches Jamaica. We shall see.
Wouldnt 91L only make the weakness more prominent and if Ernesto was becoming a hurricane in the NW carribean wouldnt he move more NW rather than west? i think if ernesto becomes a hurricane in the carribean then it will turn NW.
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1251. Patrap
Quoting mikatnight:


Aye. Those sophisticated models (1222) are lacking sophistication...


Trends downstream converging always concerning.

But things can and do often changed so everyone Im sure is aware and watching.

With TWC and the tools seemingly working.
Things seem to be flowing fine here.
Always a good thing.
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1250. LargoFl
......just LOOK at the size of this wave compared to florida..when it crosses over..every part of florida will get a piece of it somehow
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An observation well SE of Ernesto didn't show much of a wind shift as it passed to the north earlier. Well, in my opinion, the circulation has strengthened this afternoon and now it's showing a wind shift out of the west even though Ernesto is now farther away.

Check this vis loop to see.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Well, can't rule out 90L as a threat to the land IMO. We'll see.
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1247. Grothar
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Someones taking 91L too seriously! Take it easy!!!


There should be an apostrophe between the e and the s in "someone's". j/k (Couldn't resist)
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1246. 7544
hmmm is there a llc forming by andros tia
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1245. Patrap

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting Patrap:
I'm a gonna need another Fresca.


Aye. Those sophisticated models (1222) are lacking sophistication...
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1243. LargoFl
....development or not..this is going to be a dangerous wave,lightning wise
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



NHC is going to have to shift the track north and raise the intensity..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wonder what's affecting Invest 90L. CIMSS shear maps only showed 5-10 knots of northerly wind shear imparting on the system.



dry air possibly
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1239. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wonder what's affecting Invest 90L. CIMSS shear maps only showed 5-10 knots of northerly wind shear imparting on the system.



Dry air.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks Levi, even though I do not agree with a lot of what you said. The global models...CMC, ECMWF, GFS...have had initialization issues because Ernesto's circulation is so small. They all have it as a weak, pathetic low that pretty much is depicted as an open wave when in reality we have a very small, tight, and strong low.


Even so, global model consensus on the overall environment in front of a system can be powerful. Even initialized weak, the models should be showing intensification of the low if the environment supported it. I don't think it does, and the global models support staying near the status quo until it reaches Jamaica. We shall see.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting Patrap:
I'm a gonna need another Fresca.

I'm going to want something soon; but I don't think it will be Fresca. Enjoy yours and I'll do the same. Cheers/Salute.
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Dat northern shift
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wonder what's affecting Invest 90L. CIMSS shear maps only showed 5-10 knots of northerly wind shear imparting on the system.



Most likely dry air more than anything.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1235. LargoFl
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1234. Patrap
that just ,well.

No, Sir,

I don't like it




Quoting LargoFl:
2. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wonder what's affecting Invest 90L. CIMSS shear maps only showed 5-10 knots of northerly wind shear imparting on the system.



Dry air combined with light-moderate wind shear penetrating the core. Still organizing nicely though.
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1232. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
I'm a gonna need another Fresca.



mixed with everclear???
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Correct me if I'm wrong...

The stronger Ernesto gets, the more it wants to go north, true?

None of the models seemed to think it would organize as quickly as it has.

It would appear to me that future runs might show a more northerly track?
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Quoting hydrus:
I have been tracking the wave that is now 91L for over a week. Not surprising for those tracking it.
No surprise for me I has been tracking this way for many days,and posting some comments on this blog for the last few days.
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Do you think 91L will influence the track of Ernesto to a more WNW path or 91L will bot strong enough to erode the ridge ?
If the 1st case happen what will be the implication for Haiti ?

Thanks?
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Wonder what's affecting Invest 90L. CIMSS shear maps only showed 5-10 knots of northerly wind shear imparting on the system.

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1227. LargoFl
2. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1226. Patrap
I'm a gonna need another Fresca.
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Just listening to Levi Tidbits about the tropics he is not paying to much attention at all to the wave East of Florida?,I have great respect for Levi but I believe there is a something going in the Bahamas with this system is up to 20% by the NHC,and it looks very nasty,so will see?, I don't want people in South Florida to lower their guard on this system,again Levi is a superb!!! meteorologist!! I really enjoy his Tudbits,but I don't know if he did the last Tidbit earlier before this wave was circle by the NHC,in any case a lot of nasty weather for South Florida for sure!!.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
Levi if ernesto is a hurricane in the NW carribean and intensifying will it move more NW or west?
Not Levi but it would me a more NW movement.
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The circulation is strengthening this afternoon. The SW/S part is much better than earlier and banding/convection is on the increase. It's not going to open up/weaken today.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1222. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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1221. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
These storms are insane!! Geesh lightning is the worst I've seen in a long time here.

..and this is only the beginning, will be all weekend long into monday...it does not matter if this developes or not..strong to severe thunderstorms can be dangerous also..and watch out for the tornado's with this daytime heating
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1220. hydrus
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Not trying to hype 91L, but this came out of the blue.

We had a 30% chance of rain today in Miami...
I have been tracking the wave that is now 91L for over a week. Not surprising for those tracking it.
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Levi if ernesto is a hurricane in the NW carribean and intensifying will it move more NW or west?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto is looking nice this afternoon. Much better presentation than earlier.


Continued development and subsequent sustainment of the thunderstorm complex over the center would do wonders for Ernesto.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Not trying to hype 91L, but this came out of the blue.

We had a 30% chance of rain today in Miami...


Only 30% of Miami got rain today.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 3rd, with Video

Thanks Levi, even though I do not agree with a lot of what you said. The global models...CMC, ECMWF, GFS...have had initialization issues because Ernesto's circulation is so small. They all have it as a weak, pathetic low that pretty much is depicted as an open wave when in reality we have a very small, tight, and strong low.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wish the models would quit with the initialization issues. They're putting a southern bias to the track that shouldn't be there.


Ernesto would need to grow larger in size to overcome the initialization issues due to global model resolution.
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1214. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






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Wow...

Things really picked up since I left.
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1212. hydrus
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Lest we forget...

Senators Fiddle While Deep Ocean Temperatures Rise

By Christine Gorman August 3, 2012

The latest evidence that average temperatures are increasing around the globe comes from the deepest parts of the ocean, Dr. James McCarthy of Harvard University told a Senate committee hearing on climate change on Wednesday.

As it happens, what to do about climate change is the second of 14 questions that ScienceDebate.org is asking President Barack Obama and likely Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to answer as part of a quest to get more discussion about science and scientific issues in the run-up to this year's U.S. elections.

Scientific American is a partner in this quest because we believe that most of the current challenges, threats and opportunities that the U.S. faces require a better grasp of some key scientific question or research field.


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/08/03/senators-fiddle-while-deep-ocean-temper atures-rise/
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Not trying to hype 91L, but this came out of the blue.

We had a 30% chance of rain today in Miami...
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It seems we have a weather development off the east coast of Florida 91l that the experts and computer models are indicating will travel across the State of Florida and either come out between Charlotte Harbor/Tampa Bay, go directly north through the center of the State or come out around Cape Canaveral.
I do not anticipate this being anything more than a rain storm with a little wind for most of us; however, there is a possibility that it could stall once it comes off the west coast of Florida.

If it moves rapidly in the next day, it should have no impact on TS Ernesto; however, if it choses to hang out in this area for the next couple of days it could change the projected course of TS Ernesto. Most indicators are that this will not affect TS E.
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1207. Patrap
ATCF cleared the Board, or somebody dropped a Keyboard maybe.

: )
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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