Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yes using fowl language is so much better.
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1306. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


They can forecast how they want. The trade winds idea has merit, but Ernesto's circulation is strengthening right now when all the global models say it should be weakening/opening into a trough. That is already a huge mistake on the part of the models.


It is healthier than last night. We'll see how it goes the rest of today.
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Me to in WPB it Like a Tropical Storm
Quoting mikatnight:
My rain gauge here in Lantana is at 1.1" so far today, which is pretty good considering no one really thought it would rain at all (30% forcast).
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some people...

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1303. icmoore
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012


Link
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1302. hydrus
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Based on current organization of 90L, I believe we may be talking Florence later this weekend. All it needs to do is mix out that dry air. Gordon may be in the cards soon too.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Quoting Gearsts:
You are getting too excited, is still a weak ts with outflow boundaries everwhere.


Usually every tropical cyclone starts off as a "weak TS with outflow boundaries everywhere".
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting Gearsts:
You are getting too excited, is still a weak ts with outflow boundaries everwhere.



I havent seen outflow boundries for a couple of hours now.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Even that flipping warning didn't prevent any spoilers...


Warning? More like an invitation...
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Quoting Levi32:


You are all acting as if the NHC must trend to the model consensus or else their forecast is wrong. That is not the way it works.


They can forecast how they want. The trade winds idea has merit, but Ernesto's circulation is strengthening right now when all the global models say it should be weakening/opening into a trough. That is already a huge mistake on the part of the models.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
1293. Gearsts
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

NHC is going to have to shift the track north and raise the intensity..
You are getting too excited, is still a weak ts with outflow boundaries everywhere.
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Quoting Doppler22:

What do u think will happen with the invests

nothing much with 91L ladfall as a thunder storm 90L should be red alert by 8pm and TD6 at 11pm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9564
WOW FL
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My rain gauge here in Lantana is at 1.1" so far today, which is pretty good considering no one really thought it would rain at all (30% forcast).
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1289. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I dunno..still think it needs to go up a little.



You are all acting as if the NHC must trend to the model consensus or else their forecast is wrong. That is not the way it works.
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Quoting beantech2:


They both won gold. Just saw it on cnn.
Even that flipping warning didn't prevent any spoilers...
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1287. LargoFl
. ...ok gulf coast.....gee right over my house?....then goes over pats house
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What exactly am I looking for? Ernesto has a closed circulation with TS force winds, this doesn't, it's that simple. Calm down, this will not be the end of the world.


91L is in a jucier environment. Ernesto is in a dry air regimen and doing the best he can thank very much!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



The IVCN is 80 knots...

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will 90l become a fish storm if it developes into anything?
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Ernesto's center under a huge blow up of convection.
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Another way to tell that Ernesto's circulation has strengthened/grown is to look out in front of it. It's influencing the cloud motions well out in front now and could possibly be lessening the effects of any trades for a while.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting Jeff9645:
CFL is looking primed for a possible triple hit! 91L and Ernesto first, then Florence from Africa? And boy, it is raining here in Wekiva, i have picked up 2.98" so far today!


Ernesto is more likely to hit Mexico and 90L is a fish. You can't wishcast a storm into FL no matter how hard you try and I am not sure why anybody would want a storm
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Quoting 7544:
hmmm is there a llc forming by andros tia


If I had to guess looking at the vis-loops, I would say there is a weak LLC between Lower Andros-Upper Keys moving towards the NW in the dirction of Florida Bay-Naples on the SW Coast of South Florida. And it will drag all that displaced convection across Florida over the weekend. It may end up in the same general area that Debby ended up several weeks ago but will hopefully keep moving away from Florida at a much faster clip........... :)
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1277. LargoFl
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1276. Levi32
Quoting floridaboy14:
Wouldnt 91L only make the weakness more prominent and if Ernesto was becoming a hurricane in the NW carribean wouldnt he move more NW rather than west? i think if ernesto becomes a hurricane in the carribean then it will turn NW.


A NW turn will occur, just possibly not as far north as some of these hurricane models are showing. Their track forecast seems based on the idea that Ernesto will be continuously strengthening from now until infinity. My problem with that is that conditions don't seem to support significant strengthening until Ernesto is west of Jamaica's longitude. We will have to see which idea is correct.
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So what are the theory's on the wave off the coast of Florida? Will it dissipate over FL or drift into the GOMEX? What then, Charlie Brown?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Intensity guidance has leveled off a bit for now.

I don't think they'll have to do anything except shift this a bit north.

I dunno..still think it needs to go up a little.

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1273. centex
While models may be having problems I think the NHC has path and strength right on. Even Doc switched today and now sees this as reasonable.
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Shouldnt recon be leaving soon?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
This isn't the most up to date loop in the world, but it does show how Ernesto has come along today.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
1270. Patrap
Quoting thelmores:


If that pans out...... we may get a visit from Stormtop! LOL


O Lordy..

(in best Granny From "Squidbillies" voice)
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1269. LargoFl
Quoting Jeff9645:
CFL is looking primed for a possible triple hit! 91L and Ernesto first, then Florence from Africa? And boy, it is raining here in Wekiva, i have picked up 2.98" so far today!
,,jeff any Hail over there in this storm?
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




If that pans out...... we may get a visit from Stormtop! LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

NHC is going to have to shift the track north and raise the intensity..


Intensity guidance has leveled off a bit for now.

I don't think they'll have to do anything except shift this a bit north.
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1265. LargoFl
..BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

* AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LONGWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 2879 8154 2879 8152 2879 8143 2878 8142
2882 8142 2884 8133 2870 8132 2868 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 127DEG 3KT 2872 8138



BRAGAW
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Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1263. Patrap
Man those ATCF Frames are jumping around like Hotcakes.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
Wouldnt 91L only make the weakness more prominent and if Ernesto was becoming a hurricane in the NW carribean wouldnt he move more NW rather than west? i think if ernesto becomes a hurricane in the carribean then it will turn NW.


Yup and I agree with you. A texas landfall appears to me to be in the area of concern but a trend away from that to the east is very much possible.
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I got slagged off for reporting on the Olympics yesterday. Apparently, you don't get live coverage in the US. So, I'm not gonna say anything about Missy Franklin or Michael Phelps performances in the past half hour. Enjoy your edited late show.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, can't rule out 90L as a threat to the land IMO. We'll see.


With that high in place... it is sure to be a threat to land.

Btw... wow we now have 90L and 91L near Florida? Who flipped the switch?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
1251 -
Roger that.
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1257. LargoFl
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.