Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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I'm not sure why people are concerned about 91L over Ernesto and saying Ernesto is weak... well, Ernesto have doubled in size since last night and still growing larger. It's getting his act together.



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1356. Patrap
No Sir,

I dont Like it..
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Quoting zoomiami:


Doesn't take much to spin up off the coast due to the water. But the reality is that 91L doesn't need a name to cause us trouble. The storms we are having right now are much stronger than I've experienced in a lot of tropical storms.


Including tropical thunderfart bonnie?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6872
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Err.....Houston



Houston here, are we gonna have to play play catch with this one too?
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Impressive.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Two-headed turtle: Hatchling found on northern Jupiter Island WOW lol that cool




More sad, animals with those genetic mutations usually die quickly
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In South Florida, I was driving from Jupiter/Tequesta to Hobe Sound an hour ago along US 1, and the wind was whipping my little car around like a toy. There were some spots where I couldn't see the road in front of me through the rain the wind was blowing everywhere.

It was funny. When I was at the gas station watching the palm trees sway all over and looking at the dark sky, I thought to myself this looks and feels like a tropical storm. All I knew about was Ernesto and knew he couldn't be affecting our weather. Then I get to the office and see WU. Crazy stuff, lol...
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Err.....Houston

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1349. Patrap
The water is warm,
but it's sending me shivers.
A baby is born,
crying out for attention.
Memories fade,
like looking through a fogged mirror
Decision to decisions are made and not bought
But I thought,
this wouldn't hurt a lot.
I guess not



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Quoting Jeff9645:
Boy FL is sure going to get POUNDED by 91L, Ernesto and 90L. I just spoke with NWS Melbourne and they seemed a little worried about 91L, saying it could spin up to a TS in no time...now is the time to prepare people!


Doesn't take much to spin up off the coast due to the water. But the reality is that 91L doesn't need a name to cause us trouble. The storms we are having right now are much stronger than I've experienced in a lot of tropical storms.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
This wants to become a tropical cyclone so bad. It just has a huge flaw in that it lacks anything significant at the surface.



It's all about attitude.
I think I can, I think I can.
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Sorth? Is that NSN or SNS? I hate it when storms do that. Makes the models go crazy. ;)
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Part of the Tallahassee NWS am discussion as to passage of the wave/low in our parts on Sunday Night:

.LONG TERM...
[Sunday night through next Friday] Weak tropical wave axis is forecast to pass across the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. With the southeasterly flow in the wake of the wave and a weakness aloft between subtropical ridges to the east and west, expect deep layer moisture to remain elevated on Monday with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. The onshore low-level flow trajectory is expected to continue through at least Thursday, keeping PoPs elevated and temperatures near seasonal norms.


Just making the point that Ernesto is quite a distance from the Northen Gulf region and if it remains weak through the end of next week, any weakness caused by the low in the Gulf will not have any impact on brining Ernesto further North in the short term.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


??????????????????????


ya know SORTH? Like Weast!
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One of the interesting features of Ernesto is that it did not die out. As Dr. Master's said, this will now make it a more formidable storm.

There is an area throughout the Southern Caribbean that is not a good area for development, but once it hits a certain point picks back up.

I'm sure that someone here has the coordinates -- I'm typing from memory at work.


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1339. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto


Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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This wants to become a tropical cyclone so bad. It just has a huge flaw in that it lacks anything significant at the surface.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting Gearsts:
outflow boundaries everywhere


The ones to the north, werent they produced hours ago?
It looks like convection continues to build popcorn style around the entire system.
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1335. DocBen
Ernesto - I have my welcome mat out for you. Come on through the Gulf and up through eastern Texas, Oklahoma and on up the Kansas. We will welcome you.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
the new modeles are out for invest 90L AND THE MODELES ARE LITTLE MORE TO THE SORTH!!


??????????????????????
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Quoting beantech2:
Oh please...don't act all surprised that they took the Gold.

He posted that for one reason....they took the gold.

Why would he come on here and say "I'm not going to spoil what happened" if they didnt even medal? He wouldn't.



beantech2 you need too read this bold part



repost

1315. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:58 AM PDT on August 03, 2012 +2
Have fun in WU jail, beantech2. WunderBlogAdmin just came on here last night and stated that anybody that posted olympic results would be banned until the games are over.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The circulation is strengthening this afternoon. The SW/S part is much better than earlier and banding/convection is on the increase. It's not going to open up/weaken today.



This makes me glad I went a bit bullish with my Ernesto forecast this morning...
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CPC's new 3-7 day hazard outlook:



It could be way off, but I don't like the looks of this.

After all:
High winds and heavy rain oft spell out a hurricane.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


What kind of winds are you getting.
I'm in West Palm also... Nothing more than a typical south Florida thunderstorm... No real strong winds
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They do this hurricane update videos on this site called myfoxhouston.com.Check it.
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1327. Gearsts
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



I havent seen outflow boundries for a couple of hours now.
outflow boundaries everywhere
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
My apologies to all for the outburst.



hahaha, ive been a good boy hopefully they cut me some slack :p


Hey it happens, no worries fellow Virginian ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6872
1324. GBguy88
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes using fowl language is so much better.


...cluck, cluck?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


90L = Florence

Then

91L = G Storm

Tropical cyclone outbreak!
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My apologies to all for the outburst.

Quoting mikatnight:
Alas, poor VAbeachhurricanes, I did not know him well...


hahaha, ive been a good boy hopefully they cut me some slack :p
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in the Thunderstorm it 30 to 40 MPH!!
Quoting tropicfreak:


What kind of winds are you getting.
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Alas, poor VAbeachhurricanes, I did not know him well...
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1318. Patrap
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Me to in WPB it Like a Tropical Storm


What kind of winds are you getting.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6872
Have fun in WU jail, beantech2. WunderBlogAdmin just came on here last night and stated that anybody that posted olympic results would be banned until the games are over.
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1314. Patrap
I know it may be difficult, but please just hit the ! button and ignore those disrupting the blog.


And quoting only makes it worse.

As they want attention.

We can focus on the Situ instead.


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Quoting Levi32:


A NW turn will occur, just possibly not as far north as some of these hurricane models are showing. Their track forecast seems based on the idea that Ernesto will be continuously strengthening from now until infinity. My problem with that is that conditions don't seem to support significant strengthening until Ernesto is west of Jamaica's longitude. We will have to see which idea is correct.
im in agreement with you that i dont see ernesto stregthining until it gets to jamaicas longitude but as soon as it gets there, the environment will be very favorable and he could easily stregthen to a hurricane. Also, note the more wnw track as the ridge weakens giving him a chance to move farther north in a couple of days. Note however that models that take him into mexico dont have him a hurricane in the carribean but a streghthining tropical storm which is why they are further south. we still have lots of time to see which path he takes but if Ernesto is a Cat 1 and getting stronger in the NW carribean, would you still see a bay of campeche, northern mexico or the NW US Gulf track? the NOGAPS has shifted farther north as well. Thanks for the tidbit and will you make one tomorrow aswell?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ouch.Delete it VBH before admin com crashing on you.


I did, delete yours too :p
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW FL


And none of those models have it headed for FL. It's going to take a Gilbert like track into Mexico :)
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW FL
Quoting MississippiWx:


They can forecast how they want. The trade winds idea has merit, but Ernesto's circulation is strengthening right now when all the global models say it should be weakening/opening into a trough. That is already a huge mistake on the part of the models.


The stronger it gets, the more it wants to go north...
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.
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Once again please keep the Olympics stuff out of this blog and into another blog!! Thanks!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yes using fowl language is so much better.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.