Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


"Teh" language is only used by that South Florida troll.


i accidentally type teh all the time.
its one of the mistakes i make teh most
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Believe if any surface feature were trying to take hold, it would be underneath the circular looking blob in the center of the pic.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Someone probably posted this already, but the latest SHIPS has Ernesto going through no more than 7 kts of shear for the next 5 days.





thats not good
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Err.....Houston


This system surprised me personally. I knew it was there...but I didn't pay too much focus on it because I focused a lot on Ernesto and 90L. This is crazy...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
LOL.You wanna know why this reminds me of 2004?.Because after July/31/2004 all hell broke loose in the tropics.And what do we have here.Mind you the the MJO is not here.
yess i was just thinking that it seems like mother nature can do whatever the h*** she wants lol
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This is going to be a long season... MJO isn't here, yet we got tropical storms and waves EVERYWHERE.
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Quoting Jeff9645:


Sorry I just get so excited! Besides, i just have a feeling CFL may be in for a doozy!!!!

Its alright I it used to happen with me a few years ago lol.I do think something may come from 91L though and 90L is too far to know whats going to happen!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting Gearsts:
outflow boundaries everywhere


Levi's read on this looking good so far. Great TT Levi, thanks. I also would love to see another tomorrow.
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:

Wii that be TD 6 at 5pm?



nop likey at 11pm
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That storm by Africa is likely a T.D now...
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Quoting Patrap:
The water is warm,
but it's sending me shivers.
A baby is born,
crying out for attention.
Memories fade,
like looking through a fogged mirror
Decision to decisions are made and not bought
But I thought,
this wouldn't hurt a lot.
I guess not





Pat.. It looks like it's getting it's act together.....

Not concerned yet here in South Florida, this is typical this time of year.

However, i would be worried if i was you, even if 91L Forms it will not be a Hurricane, but the weakness it causes could pull Ernesto into LA/Texas.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


"Teh" language is only used by that South Florida troll.


hmmmmm... interesting
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
Someone probably posted this already, but the latest SHIPS has Ernesto going through no more than 7 kts of shear for the next 5 days.
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1393. LargoFl
Quoting Jeff9645:


Sorry I just get so excited! Besides, i just have a feeling CFL may be in for a doozy!!!!
..big rain maker i know and those folks up in north florida i hope dont get those flooding rains once again..they are still recovering from Debby's 2 feet of rain
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What do u guys think what 90L and 91L will be at 8?


What u think 90L will be?
A:60%
B:70
C:80%
D:90%
E:100%
What u think 91L will be?
A:20%
B:30%
C:40%
D:50%
E:60%


C for 90L and either A or B for 91L.
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1391. hydrus
Plenty of moisture.
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1390. Patrap
Watch for the tight end 91L over the middle, as the Long ball Ernesto is not the first pick.

Maybe.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive.


Wii that be TD 6 at 5pm?
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Quoting AllStar17:


You could argue that is a depression right now IMO. And the long term fate of this storm is still uncertain.


It's all up to the NHC.

It has a well defined LLC and it's developing convection right over it.

The size is really something as well. It will take a ton of unfavorable conditions to muffle that kind of wave signature (if it were to open up)
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1387. LargoFl
Quoting AllStar17:


You could argue that is a depression right now IMO. And the long term fate of this storm is still uncertain.
..this might depend on how long it stays out over those warm waters and how fast it gets over land by us here in florida..its a waiting game
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Could it be whom?


"Teh" language is only used by that South Florida troll.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

SAB came back with T1.5/1.5. Usually good enough for classification.


Renumber soon?
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1382. Patrap
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What do u guys think what 90L and 91L will be at 8?


What u think 90L will be?
A:60%
B:70
C:80%
D:90%
E:100%
What u think 91L will be?
A:20%
B:30%
C:40%
D:50%
E:60%
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Including tropical thunderfart bonnie?


I was standing outside when the one and only band of Bonnie "blew through". It was funny.
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They cancelled the horse races at Calder Race Course due to 91L
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LOL.You wanna know why this reminds me of 2004?.Because after July/31/2004 all hell broke loose in the tropics.And what do we have here.Mind you the the MJO is not here.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hmmmmm...Could it be?


Could it be whom?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive.

Easily a tropical depression right now, if not tropical storm.
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1374. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm not sure why people are concerned about 91L over Ernesto and saying Ernesto is weak... well, Ernesto have doubled in size since last night and still growing larger. It's getting his act together.



well for one thing..ernesto whatever he becomes and goes..thats way into next week..the storm by florida is this weekend..first things first, florida might be in danger this weekend
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Quoting mikatnight:


And are considered a warning that something is wrong with the ecosystem...


ehhh, maybe if theres more than one.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive.


SAB came back with T1.5/1.5. Usually good enough for classification.
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1371. Patrap
The mirror tries to please me, the image wouldn't stay
The stranger is too perfect, take my breath away
The future rides beside me, tomorrow in his hand
The stranger turns to greet me and take me by the hand


91L RGB Still





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Link
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive.



You could argue that is a depression right now IMO. And the long term fate of this storm is still uncertain.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


More sad, animals with those genetic mutations usually die quickly


And are considered a warning that something is wrong with the ecosystem...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Teh lack of recon is making me sad


Hmmmmm...Could it be?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Jeff9645:
Boy FL is sure going to get POUNDED by 91L, Ernesto and 90L. I just spoke with NWS Melbourne and they seemed a little worried about 91L, saying it could spin up to a TS in no time...now is the time to prepare people!

Calm down lol! I don't think Ernesto is going to FL! Me thinks it'll be a TX/LA Storm.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ya know SORTH? Like Weast!
lmaooooo
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive.



Looks like it should easily be TD6.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Teh lack of recon is making me sad
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
Sorry if this has been posted already...Blog is moving at warp speed...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY)
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHEAST JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH MOST
OF THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS...INCLUDING OUR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SURFACE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND GENERALLY INDICATES IT
CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY AS A WEAK LOW. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ADJUST
THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND FROM
WHAT WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND INDICATES THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ADVANCING NW AND MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WE WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND GENERALLY SHOW IT CONTINUING
WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
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Lol!!
Quoting TreasureCoastGirl80:
In South Florida, I was driving from Jupiter/Tequesta to Hobe Sound an hour ago along US 1, and the wind was whipping my little car around like a toy. There were some spots where I couldn't see the road in front of me through the rain the wind was blowing everywhere.

It was funny. When I was at the gas station watching the palm trees sway all over and looking at the dark sky, I thought to myself this looks and feels like a tropical storm. All I knew about was Ernesto and knew he couldn't be affecting our weather. Then I get to the office and see WU. Crazy stuff, lol...
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I'm not sure why people are concerned about 91L over Ernesto and saying Ernesto is weak... well, Ernesto have doubled in size since last night and still growing larger. It's getting his act together.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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