Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1457 - 1407

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

This blog is moving at warp speed. I'm having such a hard time keeping up with it lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I bet we have a TS or Hurricane quickly forming here over the next 2 days. Lots of energy here for 91L to work with.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
This is going to be a long season... MJO isn't here, yet we got tropical storms and waves EVERYWHERE.


MJO will be here soon BTW.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is it a TD now and will it be one at 5pm?
I haven't seen renumber yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
So we have TD 6 now!!:)



no we dont
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1452. Patrap

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
So we have TD 6 now!!:)


There has been no update from the ATCF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
intresting how 91L has convection exploding over the apparent center and as dipicted on miami radar a circulation is evident over andros island , i would expect this to either be at 40-50 percent at 8Pm this could pull a Tropical storm Katrina type event on se florida in respects to how quickly it formed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1449. LargoFl
Quoting WeatherMSK:


Does look eerily similar :( Remember the land of Florida doesn't affect tropical cyclones ability to maintain structure as much as the island mountains.
..swftmd track has it crossing florida over me, then on to texas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So we have TD 6 now!!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1447. cg2916
How come 04L and 05L didn't get an official renumber in the ATCF? There's a 99L, an 05L, but no renumber!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

NONONONONONOONONONOONONONONONONONONOONONONOONONON ONONO!


Does look eerily similar :( Remember the land of Florida doesn't affect tropical cyclones ability to maintain structure as much as the island mountains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Poll:
What will Ernesto peak as?

A.TS
B.Cat 1
C.Cat 2
D.Cat 3
E.Cat 4
F.Cat 5

D/E. Conditions are so favorable ahead an it seems Ernesto is going to be coming into the highest of the TCHP as a Cat 2 with low shear.


E. CAT 4 145 mph


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. is 90L a TD or TS at 5PM
A. yes
B. NO
Im going to say yes


YES, if not, then in a special advisory... or at 11 PM but I doubt it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1444. shfr173
Does anybody have surface data from Bahamas? pressure tendency?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is scary!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Poll:
What will Ernesto peak as?

A.TS
B.Cat 1
C.Cat 2
D.Cat 3
E.Cat 4
F.Cat 5

D/E. Conditions are so favorable ahead an it seems Ernesto is going to be coming into the highest of the TCHP as a Cat 2 with low shear.

C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1441. emguy
I believe the NHC intensity forecast up through the Jamaica area will pan out. There is historical precedent to support it.

In fact, I can think of one example where a compact storm faced very similar conditions and gradually strengthened to a hurricane as it reached Jaimaica. Other similarities would be that it had a forward speed of 26 MPH, lots of dry air ahead of it (including african dust), fast moving trade wind clouds ahead of it, and was known for belching out outflow boudries ahead of it throughout the eastern and central Carribean. For a hint, I'm including a satellite photo LINK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS Ernesto stirring the waters as he moves westward but look at Nassau in the Bahamas. An impressive deepening of heavy thunderstorms is occurring there. 90L is also looking much better organized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


MY 2 Cents Predictions for 8PM TWO


Ernesto goes to 60mph

90L Becomes TD6

91L gets a Code Red

I agree.All though NHC might highlight 90L to red being conservative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yes, it was declared a TD before NHC did.
Is it a TD now and will it be one at 5pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1437. LargoFl
Link................gee 10 times i tried to post this, its the track on 91L..guess i have to link it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1436. cg2916
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yes, it was declared a TD before NHC did.


The ATCF is always initialized before the NHC makes it public.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Poll:
What will Ernesto peak as?

A.TS
B.Cat 1
C.Cat 2
D.Cat 3
E.Cat 4
F.Cat 5

D/E. Conditions are so favorable ahead an it seems Ernesto is going to be coming into the highest of the TCHP as a Cat 2 with low shear.
it depends on the track. if its a mexico track cat 1 if its a gulf track cat 4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beantech2:


Yes... we are all impressed with your MGMT quoting...but you already used that song.

Get some new material....



Summer Wind

There's a growing summer wind
Brandishing an ancient whip,
Delivered from a desert womb,
It travels on a path of doom.

Circling its lofty wagons,
Like desperate, fire-breathing dragons;
Pity the poor soul in its path -
Lord only knows if they will last
The night.

The night will be a long one.
Bolt the doors and hide the children.

Though all is quiet in the town,
The smell of fear is all around -
For in the corner of its eye,
Some will live and some will die
Tonight.

Tonight will be a long one.
Bolt the doors and hide the children.

There's a growing summer wind
Brandishing an ancient whip,
Delivered from a desert womb,
Sure as night, it'll be here soon...




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1432. Patrap
Quoting Jeff9645:
Hate to say the 'K' word folks, but this is still very much an option at this point!!!!




...KlunK'

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not sure that the NHC will classify 90L today... It definitely looks like a TD/TS, but these systems have a tendency to strengthen quickly and fall apart quickly, so the NHC will likely wait a while to see if it can keep its act together. I say 5AM if it keeps up, maybe 11PM if it organizes even more. Plus, with marginal model support, they will be extra cautious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
91L should have been initialized farther eastward according to the surface observations.


Howdy Drak...In your opinion, does 91L have a shot at Depression status?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9645:
Hate to say the 'K' word folks, but this is still very much an option at this point!!!!



DON'T EVEN GO THERE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Q. is 90L a TD or TS at 5PM
A. yes
B. NO
Im going to say yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poll:
What will Ernesto peak as?

A.TS
B.Cat 1
C.Cat 2
D.Cat 3
E.Cat 4
F.Cat 5

D/E. Conditions are so favorable ahead and it seems Ernesto is going to be coming into the highest of the TCHP as a Cat 2 with low shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
This is going to be a long season... MJO isn't here, yet we got tropical storms and waves EVERYWHERE.


Just goes to show that MJO isnt the most important factor!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9645:
Hate to say the 'K' word folks, but this is still very much an option at this point!!!!


NONONONONONOONONONOONONONONONONONONOONONONOONONON ONONO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


MY 2 Cents Predictions for 8PM TWO


Ernesto goes to 60mph

90L Becomes TD6

91L gets a Code Red



I think 91L deserves a code orange, but I think that's a bit generous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"I AINT NOT CROSSING 15N!!!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1421. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yes, it was declared a TD before NHC did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FWTIW.

Same Bouy off Key Largo (Molasses Reef) I posted about 2 hours ago. No change in windspeed but pressure now falling from steady...........Normal given the incliment weather in the vicinity. You want to look for "falling rapidly" which is usually noted in the bouy reports and higher windspeeds.

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2012 18:00:00 UTC

Winds: E (100°) at 5.1 kt gusting to 7.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 87.3 F
Water Temperature: 86.5 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1418. cg2916
So, a TS and two invests? The Atlantic's cranking it up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

VERY IMPRESSIVE STORM...MAYBE A TD NOW...
Did ATCF made 99L TD5 before the NHC did??? I didn't see that...
Could it happen again for TD 6 if it did happen?
Yes, it was declared a TD before NHC did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
91L should have been initialized farther eastward according to the surface observations.


Hmmm....very interesting surface obs.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
ATCF is out by now for 90L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Believe if any surface feature were trying to take hold, it would be underneath the circular looking blob in the center of the pic.



You know... I think there is a LLC trying to form there. Wind shear though is keeping 91L at bay for the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A huge uh-oh... Ernesto is REALLY GROWING toward the size of typical major hurricane. I can easily see this being a major in few days the way it's growing. This is no longer a weak tropical storm IMO.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hoping to see some lively discussion about the XTRP model and Hebert Boxes soon.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1410. Drakoen
91L should have been initialized farther eastward according to the surface observations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

VERY IMPRESSIVE STORM...MAYBE A TD NOW...
Did ATCF made 99L TD5 before the NHC did??? I didn't see that...
Could it happen again for TD 6 if it did happen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
That storm by Africa is likely a T.D now...


MY 2 Cents Predictions for 8PM TWO


Ernesto goes to 60mph

90L Becomes TD6

91L gets a Code Red

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


"Teh" language is only used by that South Florida troll.


i accidentally type teh all the time.
its one of the mistakes i make teh most
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1457 - 1407

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.