Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1507 - 1457

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

1507. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1506. 7544
91L is blowing up at this hour and has a llc could it win the race
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1505. cg2916
Will wind shear be a problem for 91L?



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC says TD6? Any word on this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1503. Patrap
Well. one thing for sure is that we can all check our preps, supplies, evac plan.

As its NEVER to early to see what you can do today, tomorrow, or earlier.

A head start now can mean a lot later.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
91L should have been initialized farther eastward according to the surface observations.


Might have something there.

Them USAF and NOAA boys are gonna be busy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is likely a depression.What's the hold up?.Anyone see anything on the ATCF file?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1500. hydrus
Quoting Jeff9645:
The models will have to re-initialize farther east of Andros Island. Currently they are initializing west of there and according to the radar, visible and 850MB vorticity the center is either over the island or just East! Keep an eye out folks as this could spin up very quickly!!!!

The experimental FIM model keeps Ernesto far to the south. I bet this will change by tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91L is not a big deal... *sigh*
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
I don't think ernesto will make it to TX-we could sure use some rain, but no cane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1497. GetReal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
91L..looks really good





I know...

Massive Convective Blow Up..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see a renumber soon, 90L appears to be a tropical depression from my standpoint.


Is it a TD or not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1493. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go lie down.
..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1492. ncstorm
I really hope you guys in the GOM are ready..

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

VALID 12Z MON AUG 06 2012 - 12Z FRI AUG 10 2012

...SYNOPSIS...

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED FLOW
PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE VORTEX NEAR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE/WESTERN
CANADA...RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH
PLAINS...AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD DY 6 AND
BEYOND...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...CURRENTLY NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO APPROACH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1491. Patrap
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How come the 91L Models don't show, Pat?


They formatting now,or awaiting release clearance.

Dunno
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
91L should have been initialized farther eastward according to the surface observations.




hey drak ...good to see you in for a while ........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
C or D, if it's stronger than that I am willing to eat crow. Track beyond 3 days is quite uncertain and will determine the strength of Ernesto.
I am saving your comment to make sure you eat your crow if it ever crossed the Cat 4 threshold. Remember you offered.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1488. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................TEXAS..forget Ernesto....LOOK at THIS 91L AND WHERE IT IS GOING TO GO
..GEEZ iM GLAD I GOT MY SUPPLIES, THIS IS GOING RIGHT over TAMPA BAY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
This is a depression:





Yes, it does. Surface pressures in general have been falling in this area. A good amount of upper level divergence present should result in falling pressures, but the upper level winds may prevent this from developing significantly.
drak 91L is quickly organizing whats your take
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

This system surprised me personally. I knew it was there...but I didn't pay too much focus on it because I focused a lot on Ernesto and 90L. This is crazy...


Same here and Bahama born storms are usually no trivial concern.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could see a renumber soon, 90L appears to be a tropical depression from my standpoint.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm not sure that the NHC will classify 90L today... It definitely looks like a TD/TS, but these systems have a tendency to strengthen quickly and fall apart quickly, so the NHC will likely wait a while to see if it can keep its act together. I say 5AM if it keeps up, maybe 11PM if it organizes even more. Plus, with marginal model support, they will be extra cautious.


I see your point. It should be interesting to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
This is a depression:





Yes, it does. Surface pressures in general have been falling in this area. A good amount of upper level divergence present should result in falling pressures, but the upper level winds may prevent this from developing significantly.


it looks like a little pimple
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



How come the 91L Models don't show, Pat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1480. ncstorm
91L..looks really good


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Airport Weather Warning for Orange, FL
Issued by The National Weather Service
Melbourne, FL
Fri, Aug 3, 2012, 3:09 PM EDT

AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AND EXECUTIVE AIRPORTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER UNTIL 400 PM EDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1478. LargoFl
.....................TEXAS..forget Ernesto....LOOK at THIS 91L AND WHERE IT IS GOING TO GO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
great now for my florida trip i will have to check and Invest 90L and invest 91L (that might eventually follow the coast leaving us in rain since we will come from ontario).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Poll:
What will Ernesto peak as?

A.TS
B.Cat 1
C.Cat 2
D.Cat 3
E.Cat 4
F.Cat 5

D/E. Conditions are so favorable ahead and it seems Ernesto is going to be coming into the highest of the TCHP as a Cat 2 with low shear.


C or D, if it's stronger than that I am willing to eat crow. Track beyond 3 days is quite uncertain and will determine the strength of Ernesto.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1475. Patrap
Im gonna go lie down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That was fast td6 already?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Link................gee 10 times i tried to post this, its the track on 91L..guess i have to link it




delete the S in https
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Um... folks? Ernesto is getting stronger pretty fast. First image is 6 hours ago, and second image is right now.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
GOES East in Rapid Scan Mode (8 frames per hour)

91L Visable Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1470. Drakoen
This is a depression:



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Howdy Drak...In your opinion, does 91L have a shot at Depression status?


Yes, it does. Surface pressures in general have been falling in this area. A good amount of upper level divergence present should result in falling pressures, but the upper level winds may prevent this from developing significantly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91L go away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I haven't seen renumber yet.


neither do I
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is going on here!!!

Hi everyone!


I got out for lunch break to run some errands and get slammed in a thunderstorm here in Broward County with street flooding.. 2-3" in some parts.. my house got over 1.5" from that line of storms.
and I am thinking... this is that "tropical wave" we were watching..

Now it is Invest 91 and starting to swirl!

Yikes...

and of course 90L and TS Ernesto...

After such an idle July, things are popping now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1466. Patrap
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2 things i notice, storms getting sucked up at the South side of ernesto, and strong possibly trade winds out west of ernesto in caribbean sea.
Anyone else agree??

Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1464. yqt1001
I know everyone is busy on 05L, 90L and 91L but I have made gif loops of Vicente's EI a week or so ago in July.

They aren't spectacular as I could only save 21 frames of it, but here it is nonetheless. They re each about 3MB.

RGB loop
AVN loop
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting Seflhurricane:
td 6 is 90L or 91L

90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I bet we have a TS of Hurricane quickly forming here over the next 2 days. Lots of energy here for 91L to work with.



Not a whole lot of dry air for Ernesto to deal with.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1461. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
intresting how 90L has convection exploding over the apparent center and as dipicted on miami radar a circulation is evident over andros island , i would expect this to either be at 40-50 percent at 8Pm this could pull a Tropical storm Katrina type event on se florida in respects to how quickly it formed


Bahamas AOI = 91L

East Atl. AOI = 90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting windshear1993:
this is scary!!!



BAAAAD BOY!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
So we have TD 6 now!!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This blog is moving at warp speed. I'm having such a hard time keeping up with it lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877

Viewing: 1507 - 1457

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.