Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS not good for S FL
Is that storm north of the islands future Florence?.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
91L is not a big deal... *sigh*


......
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12Z GFS not good for S FL
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1554. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF is still pretty far south with Ernesto, probably too far south.

Levi, If Ernesto becomes a category 1 hurricane in the northwest carribean the chances of him moving NW are more likely correct? Also your thoughts on 90L in the East Atlantic?
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Totally did not expect to be tracking 3 systems when i went to bed last night, holy cow the tropics can turn on a dime that's for sure
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1551. LargoFl
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guys there is no TD 6 yet
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Quoting cg2916:
Will wind shear be a problem for 91L?





2. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Look at the Gulf Coast:

When I was watching the tropical update from myfoxhouston he sounded kinda worried.Basically putting everyone on alert.
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Is this TD 6 or not
No, it's NOT TD 6
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1545. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:
91L Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop


BOOM!
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1544. Patrap
Fuel will be first. Now is the time to avoid lines downstream.

Calmly, but diligently, get the mind flowing on those things.

Im filling up this afternoon and Topping off 10 Gals mo'
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Quoting LargoFl:
Is this TD 6 or not
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I will not be on at 5PM but will be on at 5:30PM so see you all soon!!!:) maybe TD6 or TS!!
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1km Floater up on Ernesto now:

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1540. cg2916
Navy still calls 90L an invest, nothing on ATCF.
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1539. LargoFl
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Look at the Gulf Coast:

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Quoting Patrap:
Well. one thing for sure is that we can all check our preps, supplies, evac plan.

As its NEVER to early to see what you can do today, tomorrow, or earlier.

A head start now can mean a lot later.




i try to be as ready as possible by june 1
sometimes forget a thing or two, but i did
give the ole genny a good runnin for 30 minutes
a couple weeks ago.
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1536. Patrap
..er,make it all 3 BAMMS. One was Hiding.




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But it was 88 today now 75
Quoting CosmicEvents:
There's not much heat in SFLA today.
It's an incredible 75 degrees here. I can't recall an August 3PM reading that low, ever.
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1534. cg2916
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Houston, ummmmm wake up Houston, we gotz a problem here.



That thing is under weak steering parked over the Gulf Stream.

Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
This is a TD/TS. Tight circulation associated with this one and it should be renumbered soon.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1531. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed.

2 BAMMS and OMG maybe?
..YES we all might see some of this huh
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There's not much heat in SFLA today.
It's an incredible 75 degrees here. I can't recall an August 3PM reading that low, ever.
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1529. Levi32
12z ECMWF is still pretty far south with Ernesto, probably too far south.

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1528. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



I know...

Massive Convective Blow Up..

...........ITS HITTING THAT MID 80'S WARM WATER
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1527. Patrap
Quoting LargoFl:
..Pat did you see the track on 91L?


Indeed.

2 BAMMS and OMG maybe?
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If a renumber were to occur on 90L, it'll happen within the next 40 minutes exactly.
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Quoting cloudyboy:
great now for my florida trip i will have to check and Invest 90L and invest 91L (that might eventually follow the coast leaving us in rain since we will come from ontario).


when do you leave? im getting worried myself..i fly from CT to Orlando next friday 8/10..not so much worried about rain, im worried about flight delays
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
TWC says TD6? Any word on this?
The low off africa is this TD 6 or not?
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Quoting cg2916:
Will wind shear be a problem for 91L?



I think the that SHIPS was showing only 10-20 KT at most its entire life. What its under now is the worst conditions it should experience for the next 120 hours. For some reason I thought you where talking about 90L.
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Td6 could be a bad girl heck she looks like Florence already
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If 90L is a depression now, that is a good thing. Better posibility for a fish storm.
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NO TD 6 YET!
hold the horses
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1519. Patrap
91L Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting Drakoen:
This is a depression:





Yes, it does. Surface pressures in general have been falling in this area. A good amount of upper level divergence present should result in falling pressures, but the upper level winds may prevent this from developing significantly.


Shear is ever so slowly decreasing over the center of 91L, which is currently under 20 kts of shear. They may slowly become more favorable.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1517. cg2916
When this page no longer gives you a 404 or no page found error, we have TD6.
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So while 91L has completely ruined the day here in south Florida, it does continue to organize nicely. 90L already looks like a tropical depression, and Ernesto continues to take its time.
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Houston, ummmmm wake up Houston, we gotz a problem here.

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1514. Grothar
91L last position

25.1N 78.9W approx 95 Statute miles SE from Miami
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see a renumber soon, 90L appears to be a tropical depression from my standpoint.



If they're gonna do it in time for the 5PM adviosry it'll have to happen in 30-45 minutes... Personally I have no doubt it's a TD right now, but the NHC may want to see how well it maintains itself.
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1512. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Well. one thing for sure is that we can all check our preps, supplies, evac plan.

As its NEVER to early to see what you can do today, tomorrow, or earlier.

A head start now can mean a lot later.

..Pat did you see the track on 91L?
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Do you see 90L!!
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
91L go away.




91L dos not want too
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Quoting mcluvincane:
That was fast td6 already?

While a few blogger (me included) believe that 90L should be declared a tropical depression, no official renumber has been issued.

Link
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90l is looking sexy is it a depression yet??
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1507. Patrap
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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