Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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1607. Thrawst
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its possible to go from code yellow or orange straight to a depression/storm....Jose 2011 for example...

Not sayin that 90L is like Jose...if anything 90L looks way more formidable than Jose...sorry for bringing up Jose...


The J Word. -_-
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
When the renumber does happen, do you think it's going to be TD 6 or Florence?

Unless there is some sort of wind pass that reveals tropical storm force winds, NHC will probably declare it a depression and take things from there.
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1605. ncstorm
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its possible to go from code yellow or orange straight to a depression/storm....Jose 2011 for example...

Not sayin that 90L is like Jose...if anything 90L looks way more formidable than Jose...sorry for bringing up Jose...


Eh


Ya I seethe resemblence:)
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Quoting yoboi:


katrina type event???


NO WAY!
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90L

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1601. Thrawst
NOT to be a downcaster or anything.. but I think 91L just won't have sufficient time or conditions to become a tropical cyclone. This is coming from someone is DIRECTLY under the yellow circle, and winds here are trades.

:-)
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Good loop of Ernesto. Whenever you start seeing deep convective bans develop on the west side of the circulation that will be your clue that Ernesto is becoming much better organized.
GOES-East 4 km VIS/IR2 Floater 1
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS not good for S FL
Let's not confuse the issue.
That's 16 days out! With multiple storms if folks start posting models without saying what they are admin could come in and halt the images alltogether. So if you're posting one of these worthless 384 hour forecasts just simply say so. Thanks.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, how'd you do that??
Download Loop, and then host it to imgur.
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1597. Levi32
12z FIM also very far south:

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From an October 2011 article (link below). I think it is safe to say that we can declare a cluster assuming 90L is taged as a TD later today or tommorow. While this article specifically mentions Caribbean storms, this is typical for Cape Verde season clusters which originate from African waves:

Hurricanes in the Caribbean tend to cluster together during intense periods of action, sending one storm after another across the body of water, a new study finds.

In the new study, scientists mapped the variability in hurricanes throughout the Americas using a 100-year historical record of hurricane tracks.

Short intense bursts of hurricanes followed by relatively long quiet periods were found around the Caribbean Sea . The clustering was particularly strong in Florida, the Bahamas, Belize, Honduras, Haiti and Jamaica.


Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9307
1595. LargoFl
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Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I am not sure if the hurricane hunters are on their way out to look at Ernesto or if they are out there BUT I think they are going to have another area to investigate before they come back (hence Bahamas).


Tomorrow 3pm to be exact

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
When the renumber does happen, do you think it's going to be TD 6 or Florence?


The NHC is fairly conservative, especially with a system next to Africa. It looks like a TS now, though.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Drakoen:
Good to see you all. Can't respond to all 5 billion questions but good to see you all.


Blast from the past, good to see you too you ready for this lol
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1590. hydrus
Model want to strengthen 91L. Map shows a little bubble of high pressure to 91 east.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree.All though NHC might highlight 90L to red being conservative.

Its possible to go from code yellow or orange straight to a depression/storm....Jose 2011 for example...

Not sayin that 90L is like Jose...if anything 90L looks way more formidable than Jose...sorry for bringing up Jose...
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sheese i take a few hours to do some chores and the tropics blow up. so much for shear dry air and sal what a difference a week makes
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Quoting DataNerd:
A thought occurs to me. Should 91L develop it would serve to add additional weakness to the ridge controlling Ernesto.


Especially if Ernesto was a strong and deep hurricane.





I don't understand steering currents very well. Seems to be tricky science.
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1585. yoboi
Quoting Seflhurricane:
intresting how 91L has convection exploding over the apparent center and as dipicted on miami radar a circulation is evident over andros island , i would expect this to either be at 40-50 percent at 8Pm this could pull a Tropical storm Katrina type event on se florida in respects to how quickly it formed


katrina type event???
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1584. GetReal
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I wouldn't focus on individual models, rather on the operational and the ensemble means. The GFS ensemble means seems to have a better grip on the situation, initialized more realistically.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's another ensemble member:




hurricane Katrina part 2
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I am not really understanding why most blog is focusing on 91L... Ernesto is getting ready to be a strong storm and 90L could be either TD 6 or Florence in couple of minute. Both system are wayyy more interesting than a blob we called 91L.


Ernesto and 90L are several days away from possible affecting the US, if 91L decides to spin up quick it will be on your doorstep in hours not days.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pfffft, credentials lol.



Hey, how'd you do that??
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1579. Seastep
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I am not sure if the hurricane hunters are on their way out to look at Ernesto or if they are out there BUT I think they are going to have another area to investigate before they come back (hence Bahamas).


Mission was pushed back to 2200Z
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yes the whole gulf coast needs to be alert and ready..im wondering what will this become when it hits that high 80's gulf water and heads along the north gulf coast all the way into texas?..by texas the water is almost 90
Yeah I saw the sst and their scary.I'm not going to discount Ernesto becoming a Major hurricane yet because it surely is a possibility weather it happens in the N.W caribbean or gulf.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The blow up of convection associated with 90L is impressive and it could even be a TS already. The CIRA personnel have it locked so only people with credentials can see, but here is the link to the page. Scroll down a few floaters and you can see the nice ball of convection associated with it.

Link
Pfffft, credentials lol.

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1576. Drakoen
Good to see you all. Can't respond to all 5 billion questions but good to see you all.
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Here's another ensemble member:

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The blow up of convection associated with 90L is impressive and it could even be a TS already. The CIRA personnel have it locked so only people with credentials can see, but here is the link to the page. Scroll down a few floaters and you can see the nice ball of convection associated with it.

Link
When the renumber does happen, do you think it's going to be TD 6 or Florence?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting Tazmanian:



IKE part two


No, bad Taz. :P
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Keep an eye on this. Very interesting loop.
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That move to the south by GFS mirrors the earlier jogs south in the BAMD and LBAR models. High building back in?

Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z GFS ensemble members are coming in... Some of them, such as this one, start off a little closer to the current intensity than the operational GFS and therefor may be more accurate scenarios:




IKE part two
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I am not really understanding why most blog is focusing on 91L... Ernesto is getting ready to be a strong storm and 90L could be either TD 6 or Florence in couple of minute. Both system are wayyy more interesting than a blob we called 91L.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
1568. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I was watching the tropical update from myfoxhouston he sounded kinda worried.Basically putting everyone on alert.
..yes the whole gulf coast needs to be alert and ready..im wondering what will this become when it hits that high 80's gulf water and heads along the north gulf coast all the way into texas?..by texas the water is almost 90
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12z GFS ensemble members are coming in... Some of them, such as this one, start off a little closer to the current intensity than the operational GFS and therefor may be more accurate scenarios:

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Quoting Patrap:
Well. one thing for sure is that we can all check our preps, supplies, evac plan.

As its NEVER to early to see what you can do today, tomorrow, or earlier.

A head start now can mean a lot later.



Fill up your tanks now while the getting's good. The threat of a storm in the gulf will shoot those gas prices right way up and hold them there til the refineries come back online.
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The blow up of convection associated with 90L is impressive and it could even be a TS already. The CIRA personnel have it locked so only people with credentials can see, but here is the link to the page. Scroll down a few floaters and you can see the nice ball of convection associated with it.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1564. hydrus
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A thought occurs to me. Should 91L develop it would serve to add additional weakness to the ridge controlling Ernesto.


Especially if Ernesto was a strong and deep hurricane.



Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


That thing is under weak steering parked over the Gulf Stream.



Gulf Stream Waters... 91L ... Weak Steering...

Can 91L just reverse 180 and go out to sea?
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1561. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:


woompf..that sure did shifted south..
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I am not sure if the hurricane hunters are on their way out to look at Ernesto or if they are out there BUT I think they are going to have another area to investigate before they come back (hence Bahamas).
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Just for the record:

1. The only tropical system is Ernesto right now

2. 90L is the AOI in the East Atlantic

3. 91L is the AOI in the Bahamas
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
1km Floater up on Ernesto now:


Looks like that complex over the center is not as organized as it could be.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS not good for S FL
Is that storm north of the islands future Florence?.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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