Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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the ensemble models are all over the place.
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5206. LargoFl
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like 91L is trying to come back circulation center has formed about 100 miles east of melbourne Florida
and getting closer to the warm gulfstream
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39690
Quoting RTSplayer:



Are they in the circulation center or are they in the big feeder band near PR?

The feeder band is sort of meaningless since that's mostly just going to be thunderstorm winds with the CoC being so dry and ill defined...

But the radar presentation has improved a LITTLE in the past 30 minutes or so, but not a lot.

Still very dry in there past the first band...

its close to the center its in that blow up of convection
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Anything noteworthy found by Recon?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is Recon still going out and investigating it later today?
no
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Pretty sure the Euro had this an open wave until it reached the western Caribbean.... it has been dead wrong this entire system



23 use to be a respectable forecaster but now just spits out nonsense
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Quoting reedzone:
Due to recent recon obs, Ernesto should remain a 60 mph. Tropical Storm.. Could become a Hurricane tonight or tomorrow.
i have to agree looking at the Data they will likely leave it at 60 mph
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Rain coming to FL now
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4711
i'd say at 11AM, Ernesto is still 60mph and Florence is 45mph.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Really?????

No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like 91L is trying to come back circulation center has formed about 100 miles east of melbourne Florida
Is Recon still going out and investigating it later today?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Any chance of 91L becoming a tropical depression now east of FL. has become slim to none, so its next chance of development will have to wait until it crosses FL. and emerges into the GOM.




its not 91L any more its ex 91L
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Really?????


Pretty sure the Euro had this an open wave until it reached the western Caribbean.... it has been dead wrong this entire system
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/13:56:00Z
B. 14 deg 18 min N
068 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 22 kt
E. 193 deg 5 nm
F. 284 deg 17 kt
G. 209 deg 9 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1530 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 14:14:30Z
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opps Double post
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Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery


That is some big-time dry air over Brazil...
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GFS 192hrs



CMC


NOGAPS 144hrs



GFDL 126hrs
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Due to recent recon obs, Ernesto should remain a 60 mph. Tropical Storm.. Could become a Hurricane tonight or tomorrow.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
looks like 91L is trying to come back circulation center has formed about 100 miles east of melbourne Florida
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's divergence, not wind shear. :P

Oh.. XD
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Quoting hurricane23:
As of now EURO has been spot on with ernesto.


Really?????
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5186. Patrap
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting hericane96:
Is it me or is ernesto trying to filter out some of the dry air in his system.

yes I believe that ernesto is trying to filter out the dry air should be trying to restrengthen by mid to late afternoon
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Any chance of 91L becoming a tropical depression now east of FL. has become slim to none, so its next chance of development will have to wait until it crosses FL. and emerges into the GOM.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
5183. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:24Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 27

14:25:00Z 15.400N 67.333W 843.2 mb

(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,592 meters
(~ 5,223 feet) 1013.1 mb
(~ 29.92 inHg) - From 135° at 48 knots
(From the SE at ~ 55.2 mph) 16.1°C
(~ 61.0°F) 9.5°C
(~ 49.1°F) 49 knots
(~ 56.3 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 35.3 knots (~ 40.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 73.5%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 14:15:30Z (first observation), the observation was 257 miles (413 km) to the SSW (205°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 14:25:00Z (last observation), the observation was 225 miles (362 km) to the SSW (202°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
No question the dry air surrounding Ernesto is having some influence as far as intensity levels. I think once the storm gets to 80W and beyond, things will improve. The question then becomes at that time will the weakness in the ridge forecast to take place in a few days be enough to pull Ernesto on a more northwestward track? Not sure if it has been mentioned or not yet, but I wouldn't be shocked during the day with all the dry air getting in to the circulation if another were to form and possibly at higher lattitudes which could impact the track down the road. I think today will be telling as far as the potential strength of this system. Tomorrow we should have a better fix on a more definitive track in my opinion.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quadrant.



Are they in the circulation center or are they in the big feeder band near PR?

The feeder band is sort of meaningless since that's mostly just going to be thunderstorm winds with the CoC being so dry and ill defined...

But the radar presentation has improved a LITTLE in the past 30 minutes or so, but not a lot.

Still very dry in there past the first band...
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Info from recon thus far sustains a 55-60 Mph Tropical Storm
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Quoting Articuno:

So it's being sheared...?

That's divergence, not wind shear. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
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5177. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'd say Panhandle to Louisiana, because the Plains Ridge should be able to hold over Texas and the Subtropical Ridge should be able to nose over the FL. Peninsula. This is just my opinion of course.


Yeah I can see that..but Im just wary of the fact that the GFS and the Euro still have this going south..will be a big epic fail for them if they are wrong..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
5176. Patrap
Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
5175. 7544
thoght i seen this week that dr grey has up the numbers to 16 storms and 6 hurricanes wonder why we have 6 already and the mjo hasnt even kick in lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
Recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quadrant.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Living in Cayman - regardless of what Ernesto may or may not become over the day, there is NO way that I am going to lower my guard until he is well clear west of us - then it will likely be more focus on Florence
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Quoting LargoFl:

So it's being sheared...?
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Quoting unknowncomic:
We are very active for a low point in Atlantic MJO---Only beginning of August. Its up from here!


With El-nino starting in a couple of weeks the season should start slowing down if not end once we get into Sept when it comes to landfalling canes in the US
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SHIPS appears to be assuming landfall in Mexico...likely Cat 2 (notice the sharp drop in intensity after 96 hours).
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5168. scott39
Ok heres the deal....the death high that is over the mid-west and Texas isnt going anywhere. there is a H over FL.and the atlantic that is steering Ernesto W. He is going to shoot the gap and move more N in a couple of days. Oh yea....He isnt going to become an open wave!!
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BACK TO BORING TIME IS THE LEEWARDS.. FLORENCE IS A WEAK FISH..
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I'm wondering what those two fl bloggers are going to say now about ex91L now lol....thinking that it had a chance of becoming an ts! haha
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5165. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39690
Is it me or is ernesto trying to filter out some of the dry air in his system.
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Quoting ncstorm:


It hasnt even passed the islands yet..I always look at this way, if the models arent pointing to you..be afraid..probably where the storm will end up..hence Texas or Florida according to the map below

I'd say Panhandle to Louisiana, because the Plains Ridge should be able to hold over Texas and the Subtropical Ridge should be able to nose over the FL. Peninsula. This is just my opinion of course.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Time: 14:14:30Z
Coordinates: 15.0167N 67.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,581 meters (~ 5,187 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.4 mb (~ 29.87 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 139° at 52 knots (From the SE at ~ 59.8 mph)
Air Temp: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Dew Pt: 9.7°C (~ 49.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 53 knots (~ 60.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting ncstorm:
Crazzzyy!!



Was that the last frame of that model run? Or is there more?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Doing good now



I'm not liking this spin off the east coast of Florida, it might rob most of Florida from getting the rain we need if it keeps organizing that spin, we went from too much rain to know not enough...
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5159. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
spin


spin here no 2
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
And just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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