Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not seeing any sign of a renumber which tells me the NHC is going to want to wait for consistency with Invest 90L before declaring it TD6.


They didn't renumber Ernesto the other day until 415pm Eastern or later.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 7544:
ok 1013 low nw of andros island plotted
Quoting 7544:
ok 1013 low nw of andros island plotted
yup
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Which one is the most immediate treat to a major land area?

Ernesto is traversing the middle of the East Carribean

90L is in the Middle of the Atlantic


91L is over the Bahamas, and will be affecting Florida and the Gulf Coast over the next few days.

THAT IS YOUR ANSWER.
The majority of the bloggers here are from Florida, south and east, U.S. that's the answer, those others features possible a threat to Jamaica , Yucatan, and eastern caribbean.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This is why Denis Philips dissed us big time on his live stream a few nights ago.

ST2K stop hyping..


We got dissed? I diss him!

Dude. St2k is like the rest of us.
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Not seeing any sign of a renumber which tells me the NHC is going to want to wait for consistency with Invest 90L before declaring it TD6.
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1652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting floridaT:
sheese i take a few hours to do some chores and the tropics blow up. so much for shear dry air and sal what a difference a week makes


THE BUBBLE HAS BROKEN
THEY COME
ONE RIGHT AFTER ANOTHER

FAST AND FURIOUS IT GOES
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting DataNerd:



But thats SFC winds not upper level flows?


Or do some of these buoys have vad profilers?

Trade winds are a low-level flow which is why surface circulations are disrupted when they get too intense.

That doesn't seem to be the case with Ernesto.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Tomorrow 3pm to be exact

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


alright well I am sure they will have their hands full. Thanks for giving me the update :-)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
People already comparing 91L to Katrina? LOL, WU never fails. :)


Sad when I knew it was going to happen. When 91L was declared, I was just waiting on the comparison lol...

Hey, can you hook me up with the ATCF files link? I got a new computer and lost a lot of my good bookmarks.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1648. Levi32
Quoting floridaboy14:
Levi which track are you leaning towards more if Ernesto becomes a Cat 1 in the NW carribean?


The stronger it is the more likely it is to track farther north.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
People already comparing 91L to Katrina? LOL, WU never fails. :)
This is why Denis Philips dissed us big time on his live stream a few nights ago.

ST2K stop hyping..
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Ernesto grew so large in 6 hours... but everybody is too focused on hyped storm called 91L.



I have been watching him all day but the last 4 or 5 hours he has been growing rapidly.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Buoys are still only reporting winds around 15 kt in the East Caribbean. Not exactly unfavorable for intensification considering that's what the storm has been in for all of its life (Ernesto).



But thats SFC winds not upper level flows?


Or do some of these buoys have vad profilers?
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1644. hydrus
Quoting mcluvincane:


Don't think any of the models are recognizing 91L and its influence on the future track of Ernesto. You mentioned early on that Debbie would be the most difficult storm to track all season, Ernesto seems a bit difficult also
I believe if Ernesto continues to expand as it has been, it will start to effect the environment that is steering it, this would not be good news for the U.S.
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Lots of obsticals for Ernesto still. So don't expect any intensification until he reaches the NW Caribbean.

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1642. 7544
ok 1013 low nw of andros island plotted
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How strong would this be ?
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Quoting AllStar17:
Keep an eye on this. Very interesting loop.
check out the little blob just west of Andros. Looks like a spin developing
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1639. TXCWC
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do you see 90L!!


No, I see Ernesto in the Gulf heading twd either Mexico or Texas

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
91L will have a big impact on Enresto down the road now wether it's good or bad is yet to be seen. On the other hand 91L is about to go off to the races. Could be a TS or hurricane in the making over the next 36hrs.



Center of 91L is just east of Andros Island.
It definitely has potential.... You know its August when..
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91L won't have a fun time if it manages to cross Florida:



Those conditions can change, of course.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
People already comparing 91L to Katrina? LOL, WU never fails. :)



Katrinawas a 80 mph hurricane when it pass overe the keys of FL
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:



That area is looking better.


I think again, it is going to be worth noting that the strength of 91L may play a significant role in the ridging pattern to the east of Ernesto. Quite possibly if it became TS it would allow Ernesto a more Northerly movement.

Whats fascinating though is the dynamic of the situation, this certainly adds something new to the equation, and its going to make the track forecast harder I think.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
When did Ernesto get so big?
Ernesto grew so large in 6 hours... but everybody is too focused on hyped storm called 91L.



Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
During the day dude !

An hurricane is not out of question south of DR !

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
When did Ernesto get so big?
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People already comparing 91L to Katrina? LOL, WU never fails. :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Invest 91L.

Do they realize 91L is going to pass over Florida? Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
If 91L develops at all I can only see a at the strongest a 50mph storm.
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91L is really firing up.
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First FL then the NW Gulf will have to deal with 91L hopefully it doesn't get to strong.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
When did Ernesto get so big?
obviously when you wasnt here lol
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
When did Ernesto get so big?

While everyone's been freaking out over 91L.
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Buoys are still only reporting winds around 15 kt in the East Caribbean. Not exactly unfavorable for intensification considering that's what the storm has been in for all of its life (Ernesto).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I am not really understanding why most blog is focusing on 91L... Ernesto is getting ready to be a strong storm and 90L could be either TD 6 or Florence in couple of minute. Both system are wayyy more interesting than a blob we called 91L.


Which one is the most immediate treat to a major land area?

Ernesto is traversing the middle of the East Carribean

90L is in the Middle of the Atlantic


91L is over the Bahamas, and will be affecting Florida and the Gulf Coast over the next few days.

THAT IS YOUR ANSWER.
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1621. hydrus
New CMC 144 hours.204 hours.
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91L will have a big impact on Enresto down the road now whether it's good or bad is yet to be seen. On the other hand 91L is about to go off to the races. Could be a TS or hurricane in the making over the next 36hrs.



Center of 91L is just east of Andros Island.
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1619. 7544
91L IS getting larger at this hour if this stalls it could wind up prettty fast imo
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Quoting Levi32:
12z FIM also very far south:



Don't think any of the models are recognizing 91L and its influence on the future track of Ernesto. You mentioned early on that Debbie would be the most difficult storm to track all season, Ernesto seems a bit difficult also
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's another ensemble member:

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When did Ernesto get so big?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its possible to go from code yellow or orange straight to a depression/storm....Jose 2011 for example...

Not sayin that 90L is like Jose...if anything 90L looks way more formidable than Jose...sorry for bringing up Jose...

Haha, everybody's favorite naked swirl. :P
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Here is why I don't think Ernesto will come to visit the upper TX coast (important part bolded)...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
415 am CDT Friday Aug 3 2012


Discussion...
short term weather will be status quo with strong 500 mb trough centered
over North Texas. This ridge is forecast to gradually shift nwwd late in the
weekend and into next week. Increased moisture...cooler 850 mb & 700 mb
temperatures...seabreeze and impulses rotating around the eastern periphery
of the ridge should allow for rain chances to be re-introduced
into the forecast. At this time...models painting Monday as having the most
rain coverage and will trend probability of precipitation accordingly. Storm motion looks
to be on the slow side (even on sunday) so those that do see the
precipitation might see some localized higher amounts.


From midweek on...medium range models show ridge centered from The
Rockies into the plains....
far enough away to anticipate some isolated
rain showers/thunderstorm chances each day. Fly in the ointment of course is what
ts Ernesto decides to do. Variety of model solutions out there...none
of which can be taken to the bank this far out - still a week out
if it were to impact US.
47

Basically, the high is going to be over the rockies and plains states. Not far enough away (especially as strong as it is) to open up a gap to hit here, especially considering the flow around a deep high pressure system. STX and Mexico is still more likely, with the next best possibility being Ernesto being pulled into the Eastern GOM.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z FIM also very far south:

Levi which track are you leaning towards more if Ernesto becomes a Cat 1 in the NW carribean?
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Quoting Levi32:
12z FIM also very far south:



Lol. It initialized way off in the first place. Too far SE.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Invest 91L.
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Quoting rushisaband:



i try to be as ready as possible by june 1
sometimes forget a thing or two, but i did
give the ole genny a good runnin for 30 minutes
a couple weeks ago.


I hear ya. I have 3 generators now for redundancy. Already have fuel stored and hopefully everything ready to go. Also tested out my window a/c units for 3 days to make sure no problems there.
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Quoting yoboi:


katrina type event???

Just stop man!
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1607. Thrawst
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its possible to go from code yellow or orange straight to a depression/storm....Jose 2011 for example...

Not sayin that 90L is like Jose...if anything 90L looks way more formidable than Jose...sorry for bringing up Jose...


The J Word. -_-
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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