Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I've seen it all with these systems. I'm telling you never know. Especially considering it's firing deep convection over 88 SST's. Lots of energy and moisture for this to spin up quick. Remember Humberto?
Yes I do.But I don't think this will be a Humberto type situation.As I said before a 50mph storm at best.sst can be warm all they want.
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1706. atl134
Quoting Tribucanes:
All three disturbances have the possibility of being bad. 90L looking more and more like it won't be a fish storm in the long run; not good. Blocking high going to send it west and it's going to be a landfaller too I think in the long run.


Tough to say, once the storm actually becomes a depression/tropical storm then the models should be able to get a better read on it.
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1704. Grothar
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Link



Ew. Last three frames WNW jog. Seems as its deepening its feeling the steering currents now.

Which is not good for me ofc.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon now.He thinks this has the potential to be a hurricane striking Florida.Really not seeing it...50mph storm at best.


Well if he thinks it then that's his opinion. I don't think it will be much by then but he has been right before
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the COC of Ernesto is located at 14.1N 68.8W
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Quoting Patrap:
Miami Long Range Radar





Hey Pat we need to watch this one.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Basically this. Synoptically you can't compare 91L's environmental conditions to Katrina's.



Not currently but if the Shear was to drop.......
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Quoting windshear1993:
when 90l develope will it become a fish storm??




no mode runs are not showing it it will not be a fish storm
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1695. Patrap
Eyes got a right Hip pointer..too.

That cant be good.

: )
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1694. 900MB
Quoting HuracanTaino:
The majority of the bloggers here are from Florida, south and east, U.S. that's the answer, those others features possible a threat to Jamaica , Yucatan, and eastern caribbean.


Looks like us up here on the NE Coast have a chance at some action as well.
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Quoting GetReal:



I have watched the visible loops and can not find any evidence of a low level circulation present with 91L.


Andros Island.
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Quoting DataNerd:




Yes, because usually once the storm establishes a good mid level circulation and outflow pattern it requires upper level systems to disrupt it, sfc patterns (aside from dry air pockets) become less of a factor to intensification.



If the current appearance of Ernesto is any guide, its finally getting its act together.

Yes. I think 12-18 hours is enough time for those flight level winds of 60 mph to mix down to the surface, so I think recon will find the storm stronger when they investigate this evening.

Wonder if its eyewall has become any stronger since this morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
when 90l develope will it become a fish storm??
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Again, you do understand why people are focused on 91L Right.

It is over land (Bahamas) / close to land.

Ernesto is not directly impacting anyone yet.

WU always focuses on the closest storm to Home.

Actually, WU always follows two rules:

1. WU focuses on the storm most likely to impact Florida.
2. WU focuses on whichever storm is most "exciting", then proceeds to hype it into oblivion.

Right now, 91L isn't even really a storm (it isn't even a closed circulation), but it is right off the coast, so intense focus is on it.
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1689. Levi32
Quoting floridaboy14:
thanks and what are your thoughts on 90L?


Nice-looking, but in the middle of nowhere and a non-issue while we have systems close to land.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon now.He thinks this has the potential to be a hurricane striking Florida.Really not seeing it...50mph storm at best.


I've seen it all with these systems. I'm telling you never know. Especially considering it's firing deep convection over 88 SST's. Lots of energy and moisture for this to spin up quick. Remember Humberto?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Say what you want but 91L could very well be a big problem not only for FL but from Houston over to New Orleans as well. So this is top interest right now. Also I've never heard of Denis Philips so let's move on.




I am not a "hypist" and I think that until the shear relaxes 91L has little to no chance of developing.


However, its possible development after 36 hrs, if it lives that long, and the role its going to play in Ernesto's track absolutely cannot be discounted.


Let him diss all he wants it shows he doesn't know what he is talking about.
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1686. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



time to activate triple track mode
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53863
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
When did Ernesto get so big?


I guess it took one of those funny enhancement pills that are advertised on TV at 3:00 in the morning.
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Quoting Patrap:
Miami Long Range Radar





As Patrap would say

"Tis Doom.. Er... I need a fresca"
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1683. Patrap
ZOOM and Boxes are active

Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting DataNerd:



It did originate from a similar area of disturbed whether near the Bahamas, and it went pretty rapidly from there.

Katrina also was not under 25 kt of wind shear.


The gulf SSTs are similar however.

But aside from all of that IMO the only comparison you can make is that they both started in the same place, which of course means nothing.
Basically this. Synoptically you can't compare 91L's environmental conditions to Katrina's.
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1681. GetReal



I have watched the visible loops and can not find any evidence of a low level circulation present with 91L.

Ernesto is expanding in size, IMO.
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Quoting weatherh98:


We got dissed? I diss him!

Dude. St2k is like the rest of us.
He's calling it a hurricane in his forecast with 91L -_-
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1679. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Buoys are still only reporting winds around 15 kt in the East Caribbean. Not exactly unfavorable for intensification considering that's what the storm has been in for all of its life (Ernesto).


And so far after several days of development has limited it to a low-grade tropical storm.
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1678. Patrap
Miami Long Range Radar



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trade winds are a low-level flow which is why surface circulations are disrupted when they get too intense.

That doesn't seem to be the case with Ernesto.




Yes, because usually once the storm establishes a good mid level circulation and outflow pattern it requires upper level systems to disrupt it, sfc patterns (aside from dry air pockets) become less of a factor to intensification.



If the current appearance of Ernesto is any guide, its finally getting its act together.
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Holy crap are the tropics getting interesting. Ernesto is swallowing every bit of moisture he can find and growing immensely in size, 90L is very likely to be declared at least a TD today, and 91L was that nice little cluster of storms we've been watching near PR and the Dominican finally coming together (rather quickly, might I add). This coming week is going to be such a ride for enthusiasts for sure.

And, I'm reading talk of Jose: considering the fact that he was named, I definitely think 98L should have been, it looked even better than that sad little swirl.
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what a huge difference from last year. with that huge high parked in the middle of the atlantic. dont think we will be as lucky with fish storms
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Quoting Levi32:


The stronger it is the more likely it is to track farther north.
thanks and what are your thoughts on 90L?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This is why Denis Philips dissed us big time on his live stream a few nights ago.

ST2K stop hyping..


Say what you want but 91L could very well be a big problem not only for FL but from Houston over to New Orleans as well. So this is top interest right now. Also I've never heard of Denis Philips so let's move on.

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1672. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
almost ready at 5 pm
i start my long weekend
no work till tuse 9am

full speed ahead
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53863
Quoting HuracanTaino:
The majority of the bloggers here are from Florida, south and east, U.S. that's the answer, those others features possible a threat to Jamaica , Yucatan, and eastern caribbean.


Is Ernesto close to Jamaica, or the Yucatan Yet?

It already has passed the eastern carribean islands.
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Quoting weatherh98:


We got dissed? I diss him!

Dude. St2k is like the rest of us.
C'mon now.He thinks this has the potential to be a hurricane striking Florida.Really not seeing it...50mph storm at best.
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1669. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:
First FL then the NW Gulf will have to deal with 91L hopefully it doesn't get to strong.



the Euro did not bring 91L into the Gulf..still a wait and see situation
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1668. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting Levi32:


A NW turn will occur, just possibly not as far north as some of these hurricane models are showing. Their track forecast seems based on the idea that Ernesto will be continuously strengthening from now until infinity. My problem with that is that conditions don't seem to support significant strengthening until Ernesto is west of Jamaica's longitude. We will have to see which idea is correct.


But didn't Ernesto strengthen from a TD in a poor environment?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5223
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Which one is the most immediate treat to a major land area?

Ernesto is traversing the middle of the East Carribean

90L is in the Middle of the Atlantic


91L is over the Bahamas, and will be affecting Florida and the Gulf Coast over the next few days.

THAT IS YOUR ANSWER.
Very well said!!, is all depends where you are located!, I don't believe Ernesto will have a direct impact on South Florida,but 91L will do one way or the other,myself here in Miami,are not paying that much attention to Ernesto at the present time,and looking more to our East.
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well it is that time again. another severe t'storm warning for escambia county. just got a little over two inches in a short time yesterday afternoon. i'm south of i-10 in southwestern escambia county. pat ..radar please
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not seeing any sign of a renumber which tells me the NHC is going to want to wait for consistency with Invest 90L before declaring it TD6.



i dont think its time yet i would wait a few more and see what happens
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Quoting Tribucanes:
All three disturbances have the possibility of being bad. 90L looking more and more like it won't be a fish storm in the long run; not good. Blocking high going to send it west and it's going to be a landfaller too I think in the long run. 91L looking like it may form into at least a weak to moderate TS. Ernesto will be the beast of the three, but these three will all be an issue imo. Worst season since 05' is under way.

IMO...too early to call that....
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Sad when I knew it was going to happen. When 91L was declared, I was just waiting on the comparison lol...

Hey, can you hook me up with the ATCF files link? I got a new computer and lost a lot of my good bookmarks.
Yessir: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Ernesto grew so large in 6 hours... but everybody is too focused on hyped storm called 91L.





Again, you do understand why people are focused on 91L Right.

It is over land (Bahamas) / close to land.

Ernesto is not directly impacting anyone yet.

WU always focuses on the closest storm to Home.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not seeing any sign of a renumber which tells me the NHC is going to want to wait for consistency with Invest 90L before declaring it TD6.

Wonder if they will end up later on skipping straight to TS Florence...like they did with Alberto thru Debby...
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All three disturbances have the possibility of being bad. 90L looking more and more like it won't be a fish storm in the long run; not good. Blocking high going to send it west and it's going to be a landfaller too I think in the long run. 91L looking like it may form into at least a weak to moderate TS. Ernesto will be the beast of the three, but these three will all be an issue imo. Worst season since 05' is under way.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Katrinawas a 80 mph hurricane when it pass overe the keys of FL



It did originate from a similar area of disturbed whether near the Bahamas, and it went pretty rapidly from there.

Katrina also was not under 25 kt of wind shear.


The gulf SSTs are similar however.

But aside from all of that IMO the only comparison you can make is that they both started in the same place, which of course means nothing.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not seeing any sign of a renumber which tells me the NHC is going to want to wait for consistency with Invest 90L before declaring it TD6.


They didn't renumber Ernesto the other day until 415pm Eastern or later.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10253

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.