Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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1757. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Invest90

Early Model Wind Forecasts


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?




L. Eye Character: Open, Open North
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles
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1755. Grothar
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Again, you do understand why people are focused on 91L Right.

It is over land (Bahamas) / close to land.

Ernesto is not directly impacting anyone yet.

WU always focuses on the closest storm to Home.


You are very correct. We should be focused on it. Not that it will even be a TS or a hurricane. These types of systems can drop potentially dangerous amounts of rain causing heavy flooding. I don't care about any wind. As we all know, depressions and TS can drop more rain than a hurricane. We have dealt with many of these that form very quickly without warning. Since I am 5 feet below sea level where I am, I am not too worried, since I am 6'1".
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?



From Dr. M's entry this morning.

The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


1. But doesn't this rule apply for all major metropolitan area's, maybe you are confused, the most amount of people wishcasting a storm, does tend to be persay from Florida (JFV and crew), however, i am almost certain that when a Hurricane threatens Houston,NOLA, New York, Savannah, Myrtle Beach, Tampa Bay.. Kingston.. San Juan.. Port Au Prince.. Cancun (Any other Major North American City)that bloggers in those area's will begin to post rapidly in sucession.

Their may be a bias when a Hurricane/Storm is close to Florida, but this also occurs with any other area.

2.

Agree

#2 supercedes #1. Right now, if Ernesto was a cat 2, it would be more exciting. But for most of the FL bloggers (who don't have a majority, but they definitely are the most vocal), the prospect of any storm near them is more exciting than something 3-4 days away.
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For those of you following 91L


Cyclonic turning can be seen at:

25.1N/ 76.7W per the RGB floater loop here: Link



So I would say that now it DOES have a surface low.

Thats a big difference from the past two days when it was an open trough of low pressure. We will have to see what NHC says about this later tonight but I can definetly see the turning in there on the visible loop.


I sort of doubt its going to survive transit over Florida however. But we will see.
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ernesto in 2006 didnt do so good could that all change this TIME
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Quoting tropicfreak:
This blog is moving at warp speed. I'm having such a hard time keeping up with it lol.

I'


I'm way behind,so excuse if I send some redundant questions.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting atl134:


Tough to say, once the storm actually becomes a depression/tropical storm then the models should be able to get a better read on it.


90L is so far out it should not even be much in the discussion other than just a glancing eye. The real issue is Ernesto and 91L. There are a lot of people in the path of both of these storms. 90L has a few days before it gets anywhere near land.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I do.But I don't think this will be a Humberto type situation.As I said before a 50mph storm at best.sst can be warm all they want.


That's your opinion and I gave mine so move on. I said this has the possibility to become a strong TS or hurricane and I'm sticking to my guns based on what i am seeing right now. Right or wrong.

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Quoting hurricane23:


It will over florida by then.


Thought that might be kinda late, probably re-task it then?
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Yucatan Channel, Check.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Ernesto grew so large in 6 hours... but everybody is too focused on hyped storm called 91L.





Yes, the back end of it has gotten very...wet...if nothing else.

Still not a lot of really tall convection anywhere yet, but I just saw the radar presentation on TWC and it's got some respectable rain shield on the back side now.

Antilles Radar shows it, but their visual format isn't as good on this site as the outputs TWC had. Still you can see radar presentation is not that bad at all.

Antilles Radar Link
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1743. icmoore
Quoting Grothar:


I'm so dizzy my head is spinning like a whirlpool making it spin :)
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1742. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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1741. Levi32
Quoting rushisaband:




hi levi ... been a while. how is my favorite frontier?
planning to visit anchorage and stay with my uncle for at least a week or so. might not be until march next year, but still can't wait. love it up there



I'm well, thanks. You're I think the 3rd WU blogger to plan a trip to Alaska in the last year :) It makes me feel less far away.
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Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?



I see three thunderstorms lol
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Quoting Patrap:
91L trying to make some bones, but were nearing Peak Heating so well, it will either sustain, spin down, or well..u know.

: (


:(
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
91L.



ouch not good whats the ch of RI with 91L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
1737. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very doubtful 90L gets renumbered tbh. A more likely scenario would be code red at 8p.m, followed by a renumber at 11p.m.


Looks great!! likely to only bother the fish though with that upper level trough in control of the Atlantic.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what storm is that for?
91L.
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Ernesto's circulation has made large strides today. It was very difficult to find many eastward moving clouds this morning. Not anymore.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
FWTIW.

Same Bouy off Key Largo (Molasses Reef) I posted about 2 hours ago. No change in windspeed but pressure now falling from steady...........Normal given the incliment weather in the vicinity. You want to look for "falling rapidly" which is usually noted in the bouy reports and higher windspeeds.

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2012 18:00:00 UTC

Winds: E (100°) at 5.1 kt gusting to 7.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 87.3 F
Water Temperature: 86.5 F


Dat be some hot juicy water
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
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Some of the computer models have been trending near Belize and so far south that I shake my head. What are they seeing that we aren't? Right now I don't think that scenario is going to play out. I think the southern most track is being hinted at because these models think Ernesto will stay weak and the trough will not have any affect on him. Now if he becomes a hurricane than the trough will have a much bigger affect in his steering and pull him towards the north. I think the stronger the storm than the more the turn. Right now I am not seeing a Mexico storm (Other than the Yucatan of course).

On another note, If 91L forms into a Tropical Storm in front of Ernesto then it could cause a bit of a hiccup in the eventual track and intensity of Ernesto. I hate when we have a situation like this because you always get a surprise and I hate surprises lol.
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Quoting Levi32:


Nice-looking, but in the middle of nowhere and a non-issue while we have systems close to land.
love the summary lol quick and simple
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1728. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. I think 12-18 hours is enough time for those flight level winds of 60 mph to mix down to the surface, so I think recon will find the storm stronger when they investigate this evening.

Wonder if its eyewall has become any stronger since this morning.


Eyewall?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think I know why everyone could be fascinated with 91L (at least I am.) To get my forecast for 91L out of the way, I think a Bonnie (2010) type scenario is likely, named or not.

Now to the real reason of this post, the concern I have about 91L is that it is a low pressure area (duh) and could act as an extension to the current trough forecasted to turn Ernesto more poleward. Just how much would be the question. I am wandering what type of situation Charley (2004) was in the steering mechanism that directed it towards Florida. I wonder if 91L could be the "Bonnie" (2004) type scenario with a low pressure area in the panhandle steering Ernesto more northward (track wise only!) Was Bonnie the reason that Charley turned so severely? Or was it the fact that Charley was more deep and so was the trough... I would appreciate if someone shedded some light on the topic

Thanks In Advance
FM
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z SHIPS thinks so:



SHEAR (KT) 15 15 6 6 7 1 11 9 12 8 5 15 7



what storm is that for?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
1725. Patrap
91L trying to make some bones, but were nearing Peak Heating so well, it will either sustain, spin down, or well..u know.

: (
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I can certainly understand the apprehension of folks and weather watchers at this juncture. If you look at the big picture rainbow loop (below) it looks rather ominous out there and there is a lot of uncertainty at this moment. 1. How strong will the actual named storm (Ernesto) get and when?; 2. Will ominous looking 91L develop right on the door-step of Florida? and 3. Where is potential TD/Wave (90L) that just emerged headed (where did that come from so quickly)?

Much more uncertainly than if we had three fully developed storms, with better established tracks, at the moment so we at least had a good picture of where they were headed.

This feels more like the opening of the orignal 1959 War of the Worlds movie where the 3 alien ships are just emerging out of the gully, and we don't know exactly what is going to happen next.

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
Quoting DataNerd:



Not currently but if the Shear was to drop.......
18z SHIPS thinks so, however, it'll be over Florida by the time upper-level conditions become favorable:



SHEAR (KT) 15 15 6 6 7 1 11 9 12 8 5 15 7
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like 91L is developing some solid banding features right now.




LOL. That's not banding.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm not sure why people are concerned about 91L over Ernesto and saying Ernesto is weak... well, Ernesto have doubled in size since last night and still growing larger. It's getting his act together.





And under I might add a very hostile environment! Dry air,Fast tradewinds......al he does is say forgitaboudit and improve his structure,or at least that's how his satellite presentation appears.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting Levi32:


Nice-looking, but in the middle of nowhere and a non-issue while we have systems close to land.




hi levi ... been a while. how is my favorite frontier?
planning to visit anchorage and stay with my uncle for at least a week or so. might not be until march next year, but still can't wait. love it up there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Tomorrow 3pm to be exact

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


It will over florida by then.
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Quoting Grothar:





If there is a low under there it would be near

25N

76.5-77.3W


I don't think that new convective burst is purely from the upper level ventilation. It may have a sfc low now.
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May be a little early to make that call, but if an off of Africa wave trough doesn't set up to take developed storms away from land then a throw back southern route season is upon us. We haven't had a southern router season in quite a long while. I hope I'm wrong, but the tell tell signs of a possibly really bad season are certainly here. May be premature, and I certainly respect the vets here who are telling me so; but I'm sticking to this being one season we'll remember for quite a long while for all the wrong reasons.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1716. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting Patrap:
Eyes got a right Hip pointer..too.

That cant be good.

: )


Looks like 91L is developing some solid banding features right now.


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thats crazy how 91L looks better than ernesto
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Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, WU always follows two rules:

1. WU focuses on the storm most likely to impact Florida.
2. WU focuses on whichever storm is most "exciting", then proceeds to hype it into oblivion.

Right now, 91L isn't even really a storm (it isn't even a closed circulation), but it is right off the coast, so intense focus is on it.


1. But doesn't this rule apply for all major metropolitan area's, maybe you are confused, the most amount of people wishcasting a storm, does tend to be persay from Florida (JFV and crew), however, i am almost certain that when a Hurricane threatens Houston,NOLA, New York, Savannah, Myrtle Beach, Tampa Bay.. Kingston.. San Juan.. Port Au Prince.. Cancun (Any other Major North American City)that bloggers in those area's will begin to post rapidly in sucession.

Their may be a bias when a Hurricane/Storm is close to Florida, but this also occurs with any other area.

2.

Agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1712. ncstorm
laawwddd..are you guys really arguing over which storm is more important? heck, I dont even live in Florida, NO or Texas and Im still here regardless..

NCians are so much more laid back..LOL
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1711. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


time to activate triple track mode


Shields.


..Condition Yellow.

Turn her into the Wind Sulu..



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Very doubtful 90L gets renumbered tbh. A more likely scenario would be code red at 8p.m, followed by a renumber at 11p.m.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. I think 12-18 hours is enough time for those flight level winds of 60 mph to mix down to the surface, so I think recon will find the storm stronger when they investigate this evening.

Wonder if its eyewall has become any stronger since this morning.



Do you have microwave loop (updated)?

Post it if so perhaps it will tell us something.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If 91L develops at all I can only see a at the strongest a 50mph storm.


You have seen what weak systems can do once they cross Florida and get in the GOM right? 85+ degree water is waiting for 91L!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I've seen it all with these systems. I'm telling you never know. Especially considering it's firing deep convection over 88 SST's. Lots of energy and moisture for this to spin up quick. Remember Humberto?
Yes I do.But I don't think this will be a Humberto type situation.As I said before a 50mph storm at best.sst can be warm all they want.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.