Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Well, 2012 season sure got busy quickly.


It always fascinates me how that happens sometimes, its like someone flipping a switch.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting DataNerd:
Link



If this continues to improve its structure it will have its chances raised significantly at the next advisory time.


Its got good ventilation at the upper levels courtesy of the ULL and now it has a surface low evident in visible imagery.


By Popular agreement, 91L has about 24 hours of water time, and it is sitting over waters that came from the Gulf, so.. I'd watch it.
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Quoting yoboi:



91L is looking very impressive...


better question....

what is the chance of RI with Ernesto
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Quoting yoboi:



is that a pic of cantore when he was young???



no its a photo of jfv and it needs too be re move or wounder blog admin will likey give him a 24 hrs ban for posting off topic photo
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1801. LargoFl
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Quoting yoboi:



is that a pic of cantore when he was young???
Jfv
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hurricane hunters is to take off for Ernesto in about an hour or 2
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Quoting jeffs713:

I know that the overwhelming majority of FL bloggers are sensible, and really don't want anyone to experience a hurricane - and would help however they can. That said, those bloggers only account for about 20% of the posts from FL.


This i can agree with, at the moment all three systems are strengthing and are extremely interesting.

Obviously Ernesto and 91L are of most importance atm.

But 90L could make Puerto Rico very nervous in the coming week.
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Link



If this continues to improve its structure it will have its chances raised significantly at the next advisory time.


Its got good ventilation at the upper levels courtesy of the ULL and now it has a surface low evident in visible imagery.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Thought that might be kinda late, probably re-task it then?


Um ive been at work all day but ive noticed some pressure falls near the vicinity the past few hrs. Its very close to SFL already so if this wave wants to do something it better not waster anytime. Regardless it should make for an interesting and wet weekend in Miami.
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1794. Patrap
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


I see it, looks like it's organizing.

Patrap, can i have a fresca, or perhaps a Beer?


Im water DuDe but smooth as the Heat took me for a spin Weds.

Water, water. wattttter...
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1793. LargoFl
Quoting jeffs713:

#2 supercedes #1. Right now, if Ernesto was a cat 2, it would be more exciting. But for most of the FL bloggers (who don't have a majority, but they definitely are the most vocal), the prospect of any storm near them is more exciting than something 3-4 days away.
..agreed
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1792. yoboi
Quoting altesticstorm2012:


91L just too lame...



is that a pic of cantore when he was young???
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anyone know what TAFB/SAB gave Ernesto at 18z?


03/1745 UTC 13.9N 63.2W T2.5/2.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
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Quoting DataNerd:
Corrections:

sfc low seen at 25N/77W, stationary





I see it, looks like it's organizing.

Patrap, can i have a fresca, or perhaps a Beer?
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Quoting hurricane23:


Looks great!! likely to only bother the fish though with that upper level trough in control of the Atlantic.


I love these kind of storms. Beautiful to behold.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


:) Hey.. hey.. hey...

If a Hurricane was threatening you, i would be on here trying to give you information.

Please don't let JFV and a few silly others ruin the image of us "Florida" bloggers.

By the way, 91L is interesting and exciting, It has the same feeling of when Humberto was off the Texas coast.

I know that the overwhelming majority of FL bloggers are sensible, and really don't want anyone to experience a hurricane - and would help however they can. That said, those bloggers only account for about 20% of the posts from FL.
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Quoting Levi32:


An embryo existed last night when it was NW of Barbados but that is long gone based on microwave imagery and earlier radar out of the Antilles.


I agree that it fell apart when that microwave image was taken. However, it could be rebuilding one now as convection keeps rebuilding over the center. Recon will be interesting.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Anyone know what TAFB/SAB gave Ernesto at 18z?
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1785. TXCWC
Quoting Articuno:

Think he means it's structure.


No, think he meant eyewall - just as dr. Master's mentions it above in his blog as well: "The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall."
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I have to say I totally understand the focus on 91L


Earlier today it was still an open trough for the most part but that has changed in the past 8 hours.

Additionally its much closer to land then Ernesto, and it will also almost certainly play a role in the track of Ernesto.




And I just realized, the "shear" is actually ideally place. The flow from the ULL to the north of the circulation of 91L seems to be enhancing its outflow right now.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



L. Eye Character: Open, Open North
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles

While the partial eyewall did exist, due to the pulsing nature of the thunderstorms over and around Ernesto's center, I feel like it was probably a more of a transient feature than a permanent fixture at that time.
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Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?

i dont see one and Levi where do you see Ernesto's center right now is it north or south of 14N and how has ernesto faired today? maintaining itself or stregthining?
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:


91L just too lame...




i hop you injoy the 24hr bannd wounder blog admin give you so i would re move it
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Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
He's calling it a hurricane in his forecast with 91L -_-


"possible" hurricane, big difference...
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Dat be some hot juicy water


I know; 1 degree difference between it and the air temps......Makes little sense to jump in off the boat to cool off...........
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Quoting jeffs713:

#2 supercedes #1. Right now, if Ernesto was a cat 2, it would be more exciting. But for most of the FL bloggers (who don't have a majority, but they definitely are the most vocal), the prospect of any storm near them is more exciting than something 3-4 days away.


:) Hey.. hey.. hey...

If a Hurricane was threatening you, i would be on here trying to give you information.

Please don't let JFV and a few silly others ruin the image of us "Florida" bloggers.

By the way, 91L is interesting and exciting, It has the same feeling of when Humberto was off the Texas coast.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Um... folks? Ernesto is getting stronger pretty fast. First image is 6 hours ago, and second image is right now.



It does appear he has a big set of cajones. Everyone calling him DOA and clinging to life yesterday and now he look's ok to pretty good considering the environment he is in.
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1774. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



ouch not good whats the ch of RI with 91L?



91L is looking very impressive...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


time to activate triple track mode

Yeppers...Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not that this holds any credence at the time being...


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)




thanks
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Quoting hurricane23:


Looks great!! likely to only bother the fish though with that upper level trough in control of the Atlantic.
I agree. Don't mind a good ol' fish. :)
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1770. TXCWC
Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?



Believe he is refering to Dr. Master's blog comment above: " The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall."
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How tall were you when you were younger Grothar? :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?


Think he means it's structure.
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looks like if 91L moves overe FL it will be going overe the keys and with the keys being small in land it will still keep it mosty overe water druning the pass overe the keys
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1766. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


From Dr. M's entry this morning.

The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


An embryo existed last night when it was NW of Barbados but that is long gone based on microwave imagery and earlier radar out of the Antilles.
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Ernesto is trucking along, though it seems to moving barely north of west.
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1764. Patrap
I'm so confused"...

(FaCepalm)
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1763. Grothar
Quoting icmoore:


I'm so dizzy my head is spinning like a whirlpool making it spin :)


Just stay calm and relax. REMEMBER RELAX!!!!!! RELAX!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



ouch not good whats the ch of RI with 91L?
Not that this holds any credence at the time being...


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
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Corrections:

sfc low seen at 25N/77W, stationary



Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto's circulation has made large strides today. It was very difficult to find many eastward moving clouds this morning. Not anymore.

He has definitely made progress through today.
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MIA NWS

000
FXUS62 KMFL 031859
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY)
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHEAST JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH MOST
OF THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS...INCLUDING OUR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SURFACE
TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND GENERALLY INDICATES IT
CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY AS A WEAK LOW. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ADJUST
THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND FROM
WHAT WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND INDICATES THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ADVANCING NW AND MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WE WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND GENERALLY SHOW IT CONTINUING
WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
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Quoting hurricane23:


It will over florida by then.


The center I see is just east of Andros Island. NHC has it to the NW of Andros island. 850 vort doesn't match the NHC's low center.

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1757. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Invest90

Early Model Wind Forecasts


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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