Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1857 - 1807

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you know what post number was that?.


1805 is what I was replying to
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link



Well thats impressive. Now I can see mid level turning as well still at 77W/25N



Folks in Florida your going to get alot of rain by the looks of things regardless of what this does, but if I didn't know better I'd say they make this a TD later tonight..

Now that would of course be ONLY if the current pattern continues, any changes and that's out the door, 91L has a long way to go yet.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting OrchidGrower:


Thanks (I think!), Jeffs .... There is so much hype talk from the adrenaline junkies, I think most of us more rational types try to keep a lid on during "normal" times. I'm a Florida resident who has survived some big storms, and I don't wish for another one. I love this blog because I love having the earliest possible notice on what to expect from the weather, both short-term and long-term.

I love a rockin' wind & rain, am fine with getting a weak tropical storm 'most anytime. But I'm not wishing destruction on Florida, certainly, or any other place ... promise!

The rest of you sane storm-veterans will have to speak for yourselves!... ;-)


I agree with you. I have had to learn to keep a "lid" on weather adrenaline. Some times that can be hard when your mind is telling you the situation is about to hit the fan. An example of that is with Ernesto right now. I know a lot are discussing 91L and Ernesto becoming a Major hurricane in the NW Caribbean and Gulf but my concern is that this will happen even before he reaches Jamaica. So yea I am trying to keep a lid on it and see what everyone else thinks for the short term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1854. cg2916
Quoting floridaT:
one thing to consider is a system crossing south florida, the everglades are warm water. sometimes a system doesnt slow down at all


Just like when Fay formed an eye over FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto's circulation has made large strides today. It was very difficult to find many eastward moving clouds this morning. Not anymore.



Has a partially formed anti-cyclone over it, so I think it's starting to gain some protection against the shear.


I don't want to speculate too much about the future shear environment 4 to 7 days out, but currently there is absolutely nothing in the regions the storm will be passing through during that time. The Yucatan Channel, BoC, and Gulf of Mexico in general have near zero shear.

Now a lot can change in 4 to 7 days, but hurricane warnings for U.S. landfalls will need to be issued 4 or 5 days from now, depending on track, and 2 or 3 days for various places in Mexico and Central America.

I suspect that if the storm gets through the John Hope zone as strong or stronger than it is now, it will be well on it's way to becoming a major hurricane either in the central Gulf or the BoC....eventually...

Official is 80kts at what amounts to 112 hours from now...

So that's only like 1kts increase every 3 hours....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1850. LargoFl
.............they upped the rain chances once again for Tampa Bay area
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
THANK YOU!
Do you know what post number was that?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1848. Patrap
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Whatcha think Pat. Banding?



Well, what I do is focus directly on the Miami Radar Sight in the frame, and you can see the overall circulation forming.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:


12z GFDL 990 mb. Eastern Gulf:



UKMET wants to pay Patrap a Visit, and steal his Fresca's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1845. Grothar
Quoting Tribucanes:
How tall were you when you were younger Grothar? :)


6' 4" (you twit). Rub it in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1844. bappit
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I know; 1 degree difference between it and the air temps......Makes little sense to jump in off the boat to cool off...........

Water conducts heat much better than air. Jump in and you will cool off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1842. GetReal


90L may already be a TS.... IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


12z GFDL 990 mb. Eastern Gulf:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link



Can't see very much here too much back-scatter towards the east.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
1838. Patrap
Hurricane Preparation 2012








Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Anyone want to start watching Miami radar and see if you can see any rotation out there around 77W?


I see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


03/1745 UTC 13.9N 63.2W T2.5/2.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
Highest SAB's been thus far. TAFB didn't update in the ATCF file. :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Whatcha think Pat. Banding?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
one thing to consider is a system crossing south florida, the everglades are warm water. sometimes a system doesnt slow down at all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1832. ncstorm
Look at the low now on the surface map for 91L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

I know that the overwhelming majority of FL bloggers are sensible, and really don't want anyone to experience a hurricane - and would help however they can. That said, those bloggers only account for about 20% of the posts from FL.


Thanks (I think!), Jeffs .... There is so much hype talk from the adrenaline junkies, I think most of us more rational types try to keep a lid on during "normal" times. I'm a Florida resident who has survived some big storms, and I don't wish for another one. I love this blog because I love having the earliest possible notice on what to expect from the weather, both short-term and long-term.

I love a rockin' wind & rain, am fine with getting a weak tropical storm 'most anytime. But I'm not wishing destruction on Florida, certainly, or any other place ... promise!

The rest of you sane storm-veterans will have to speak for yourselves!... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1830. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All I can say is WOW! Going to go slam a beer and chase it with a fresca. That should be about as nasty as these three systems have the potential to be. What a couple days and weeks this is shaping up to be. Be back after my chill pill kicks in.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting ILwthrfan:


"possible" hurricane, big difference...
It got no chances of being a hurricane... it's way too close to land and it's about to cross Florida in few hours. Just no way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Im water DuDe but smooth as the Heat took me for a spin Weds.

Water, water. wattttter...


watteerrrrrrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



Modify Comment works find for me

I can tell he's lying
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1825. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
What's your thoughts on 91L?.Do you believe the hype?.



Earlier today it was hype.

Now the system does have a small surface low, and the organization resembles a depression somewhat.

So I would say that if nothing changes its no longer hype.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
1822. yoboi
Quoting wolftribe2009:


better question....

what is the chance of RI with Ernesto


see what it does near the yucatan...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Anyone want to start watching Miami radar and see if you can see any rotation out there around 77W?


Look at my post# 1808. Look at the link. Could have 91L go up to 40 to 50% by 8pm. Maybe higher.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you need to chill it'll be over fl just like hurricane23 mentioned! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9645:


Honestly bro, hurricane? You honestly cannot think that considering how close it is to land, and that we cant even see a COC yet! But we are used to your hype here, and most the time you are wrong so no big deal :) Thats why you are not working for the NHC, otherwise the whole US coast would be evacuating right now!
THANK YOU!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcluvincane:



Lmao, that's a cool picture tho, i remember jasoncoolman made one of himself just like that lol



cool i think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Well.. it's not likely.. but it is not impossible..

I mean Humberto did that, and Katrina kind of did that.



Actually we can see the coc now.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
1815. Patrap
AL912012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


click image for Loop.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Um ive been at work all day but ive noticed some pressure falls near the vicinity the past few hrs. Its very close to SFL already so if this wave wants to do something it better not waster anytime. Regardless it should make for an interesting and wet weekend in Miami.
What's your thoughts on 91L?.Do you believe the hype?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1813. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone want to start watching Miami radar and see if you can see any rotation out there around 77W?
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Taz... it won't let me edit my post when I click "Modify Comment"...



Modify Comment works find for me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9645:


Honestly bro, hurricane? You honestly cannot think that considering how close it is to land, and that we cant even see a COC yet! But we are used to your hype here, and most the time you are wrong so no big deal :) Thats why you are not working for the NHC, otherwise the whole US coast would be evacuating right now!


Well.. it's not likely.. but it is not impossible..

I mean Humberto did that, and Katrina kind of did that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



no its a photo of jfv and it needs too be re move or wounder blog admin will likey give him a 24 hrs ban for posting off topic photo



Lmao, that's a cool picture tho, i remember jasoncoolman made one of himself just like that lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow! Look at 91L go. LOL. Looking more and more impressive with each frame. Now what in the world will happen to Ernesto as a result.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Well, 2012 season sure got busy quickly.


It always fascinates me how that happens sometimes, its like someone flipping a switch.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534

Viewing: 1857 - 1807

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast