Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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1907. LargoFl
.....................PAT..wake up LOL...you see the track now?..very interesting when it hits that hot gulf water near the coastlines
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Ernesto says he will show us and the trade winds who's boss...

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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Wow..


Interesting...

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) 5-day plot - Wind Direction WDIR 5-day plot - Wind Speed WSPD
4:00 pm NE ( 56 deg ) 28 kts
3:50 pm NE ( 45 deg ) 12 kts
3:40 pm NE ( 55 deg ) 14 kts
3:30 pm NE ( 49 deg ) 17 kts
3:20 pm ENE ( 58 deg ) 12 kts
3:10 pm N ( 0 deg ) 10 kts
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91L

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91L looking good


i could be up too 40 or 50%
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Quoting weatherh98:


Prolly the old 100% chance saying that advisorys will likely be issued
windshear.is.bad.right.now..12hrs
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Quoting DataNerd:
Well get a load of this one, more buoy data:


4:00 pm NE ( 56 deg ) 28 kts
3:50 pm NE ( 45 deg ) 12 kts
3:40 pm NE ( 55 deg ) 14 kts
3:30 pm NE ( 49 deg ) 17 kts
3:20 pm ENE ( 58 deg ) 12 kts
3:10 pm N ( 0 deg ) 10 kts



Look at the change between 3:50 reading and 4:00 reading. Up from 12 to 28 kts.

Could also be a simple thunderstorm. The direction change is interesting... Which direction is that buoy from the estimated COC?
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Quoting weatherh98:


Prolly the old 100% chance saying that advisorys will likely be issued



If that is for 91L then yes I would be in agreement.


Buoy data combined with radar and Vis sat pretty clearly shows a developing circulation over the Bahamas.


Where its going to go is a somewhat interesting question it appears to be drifting south atm.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
1898. LargoFl
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Whats the chances 91 comes into gulf?
..about 90% if the current models are right
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1896. Patrap
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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1895. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:


91L hasnt even gotten in the Gulf stream yet I dont think..someone correct me if I am wrong..storms have been known to blow up real quick..never say never



..yes your right there..
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Gotta be specific in times like this...lol. I know which storm you meant, but others are probably about to explode with excitement thinking you are talking about 91L.

Yeah, I edited my post right after posting it. :P
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Whats the chances 91 comes into gulf?
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Well get a load of this one, more buoy data:


4:00 pm NE ( 56 deg ) 28 kts
3:50 pm NE ( 45 deg ) 12 kts
3:40 pm NE ( 55 deg ) 14 kts
3:30 pm NE ( 49 deg ) 17 kts
3:20 pm ENE ( 58 deg ) 12 kts
3:10 pm N ( 0 deg ) 10 kts



Look at the change between 3:50 reading and 4:00 reading. Up from 12 to 28 kts.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting ClevelandBob:
What will Ernesto's 5PM EDT intensity be?
A. 45
B. 50
C. 60


B likely but C maybe
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1890. ncstorm
Quoting Bluestorm5:
The only thing 91L will do is to bring LOT of rain. Maybe possible flooding. That's it. I don't really see tropical depression out of this even.


91L hasnt even gotten in the Gulf stream yet I dont think..someone correct me if I am wrong..storms have been known to blow up real quick..never say never



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14460
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC is probably watching to see if thunderstorm activity sustains itself. Code Red at 8PM EDT seems very likely, followed by designation at 11PM EDT if the storm maintains itself.


Prolly the old 100% chance saying that advisorys will likely be issued
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Quoting floridaboy14:
will the HH investigate ernesto today?

yes they are expected to takeoff in about an hour or two from now
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Now, I don't expect 91L blow up and become a tropical storm on use. But if it does... I bet there could be an awesome time-lapse radar made video that shows the evolution of 91L go from tropical wave to a tropical storm, all being observed by the Miami long range radar.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC is probably watching to see if thunderstorm activity sustains itself. Code Red at 8PM EDT seems very likely, followed by designation at 11PM EDT if the storm maintains itself.


Gotta be specific in times like this...lol. I know which storm you meant, but others are probably about to explode with excitement thinking you are talking about 91L.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC is probably watching to see if thunderstorm activity sustains itself. Code Red at 8PM EDT seems very likely, followed by designation at 11PM EDT if the storm maintains itself.




I find 91L more interesting of the two atm, as 90L is largely exposed at this time.


More buoy data:

08 03 3:00 pm NNW 13 15 - - - - 30.00 -0.04 82.2


Emphasis mine as that shows evidence of a developing surface circulation.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
1883. LargoFl
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I am not really understanding why most blog is focusing on 91L... Ernesto is getting ready to be a strong storm and 90L could be either TD 6 or Florence in couple of minute. Both system are wayyy more interesting than a blob we called 91L.


Dude,It's close to land, where a lot of our fellow bloggers live.
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Quoting yoboi:


see what it does near the yucatan...


trust me I don't wanna know what he will do when he reaches near 90 degree water. Hurricanes tend to like that. All this heat this year in the northern hemisphere just doesn't make one feel easy when a big storm starts churning the water. I am wishing for the best along with everyone else. A large portion of the US could could sure use the rain to put out the heat.
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Quoting Grothar:


6' 4" (you twit). Rub it in.


I'm that tall)
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1878. yoboi
Quoting DataNerd:
Buoy North of 91L estimated COC:


Link


Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F


they had a 42kts gust, wave ht has been on the increase aalso...
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1877. amd
Quoting Jeff9645:


Honestly bro, hurricane? You honestly cannot think that considering how close it is to land, and that we cant even see a COC yet! But we are used to your hype here, and most the time you are wrong so no big deal :) Thats why you are not working for the NHC, otherwise the whole US coast would be evacuating right now!


Yeah. Some of the hype for 91L is almost laughable. Pressures in the NW Bahamas and SE Florida are around 1016 mb, which are typically much too high to support much surface development, and just about all of the convection in the Bahamas is occurring under 20-30+ knots of shear.

The thunderstorm activity seems to be just an interaction between a weak surface trough and a upper level trough.
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The NHC is probably watching to see if thunderstorm activity sustains itself. Code Red at 8PM EDT seems very likely, followed by designation at 11PM EDT if the storm maintains itself.

Talking about 90L, by the way.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Buoy North of 91L estimated COC:


Link


Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F


Wow..
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1873. Patrap
18z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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Quoting floridaboy14:
will the HH investigate ernesto today?



yes
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1870. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SARASOTA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES EAST OF
PALMETTO TO 12 MILES NORTH OF NORTH PORT... AND MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PARRISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.



LAT...LON 2765 8206 2712 8205 2712 8242 2765 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 103DEG 4KT 2752 8224 2722 8222
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Quoting Patrap:



Well, what I do is focus directly on the Miami Radar Sight in the frame, and you can see the overall circulation forming.





Rotation is clear here:

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What will Ernesto's 5PM EDT intensity be?
A. 45
B. 50
C. 60
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buoy North of 91L estimated COC:


Link


Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
will the HH investigate ernesto today?
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12z UKMET Central Gulf:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1863. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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The only thing 91L will do is to bring LOT of rain. Maybe possible flooding. That's it. I don't really see tropical depression out of this even.
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1861. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14460
1860. LargoFl
.............NAM does'nt even have it coming into florida now..hmmm up the east coast? or is it an outlier model?
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1858. Patrap
It is broad for sure, and making gains seems.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you know what post number was that?.


1805 is what I was replying to
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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