Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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5 P.M. Advisory is out. No change to 91L or 90L, will wait until 8.

Ernesto looking better and for now, track is held slightly further back to the south again but is not around the model consensus, this is due to the outliers ECMWF and GFS.



I wonder how many runs it takes before the models take into account the influence of 91L, which was a non-issue until about 6 hrs ago.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
NHC extremely conservative/bearish...as per the usual.

I wouldn't say that... I've seen them be quite a bit more bullish on forecasts than the models, too. (they did that with Debby, IIRC)
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting mynameispaul:


The better prepared you are for a storm, the less anxiety you will experience.


lol I was talking more weather hype but I know what you mean.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting Tazmanian:



wish means

It'll need to be shifted north eventually.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN
A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN
THIS CASE.
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Severe T'Storm Warning for Manatee County:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Check this buoy at the western end of Grand Bahama
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tis what I thought:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS."



wish means
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
1948. LargoFl
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1946. Patrap
The Rocket Coast Meets the Perfect stranger?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


The outflow boundaries are actually from the storms over the mainland today.

Yes, many of them are, but that is still stable air being thrown into that area, which 91L will have to overcome in order to be classified, along with several other things.
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1944. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..getting closer
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Tis what I thought:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1942. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:


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1941. Patrap


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Looks like some nasty storms are about to roll into Tampa Bay. It looks to be an active weekend around here with Ernesto and 91L... Time to head home.
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Quoting Patrap:
,,these situ's, well can if given the right conditions,












squares well with the buoy data.
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wierd.wpac.had.two.westernly.landfallers..now.its.t he.atlantics.turn
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if I agree with Ernesto moving over the Yucatan. I still think the Yucatan Channel seems more likely considering it appears we're going to see gradual strengthening as it moves across the East and Central Caribbean.



That and we are now looking at a TS potentially weakening the ridge near Florida.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


I agree with you. I have had to learn to keep a "lid" on weather adrenaline. Some times that can be hard when your mind is telling you the situation is about to hit the fan. An example of that is with Ernesto right now. I know a lot are discussing 91L and Ernesto becoming a Major hurricane in the NW Caribbean and Gulf but my concern is that this will happen even before he reaches Jamaica. So yea I am trying to keep a lid on it and see what everyone else thinks for the short term.


The better prepared you are for a storm, the less anxiety you will experience.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Observations out of Northern Cuba show west winds.


That's interesting. What speed? There are a lot of thunderstorms in the area from daytime heating so it is possible that might be from them.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1933. Patrap
,,these situ's, well can if given the right conditions,









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Quoting jeffs713:

Could also be a simple thunderstorm. The direction change is interesting... Which direction is that buoy from the estimated COC?



It is just to the north and west of the COC and its reporting winds are out of the NE-ENE which would square with the circulation as well.

It is under the thunderstorm complex but its been under it for about 3 hrs.

Latest data from this buoy: Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F




Be another 15 minutes I think before I get the next update from it.
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Not sure if I agree with Ernesto moving over the Yucatan. I still think the Yucatan Channel seems more likely considering it appears we're going to see gradual strengthening as it moves across the East and Central Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trade winds are a low-level flow which is why surface circulations are disrupted when they get too intense.

That doesn't seem to be the case with Ernesto.


i seems to see mediumly strong trade winds on RGB
Link
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1929. LargoFl
Quoting wolftribe2009:


those tracks probably arent going to be accurate. They will probably be further south in the gulf in the next 24 hours.
agreed lots of time left for changes
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1928. hydrus
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto says he will show us and the trade winds who's boss...

I say without hesitation that Ernesto will be a large and intense hurricane. It will be serious business to the people in its path. bummer
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Observations out of Northern Cuba show west winds.
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
BANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR
IS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING
THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
COULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN
A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN
THIS CASE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.9N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 21.0N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I see outflow boundaries. While the thunderstorms do look impressive, it still has a long way to go before classification is even considered.


The outflow boundaries are actually from the storms over the mainland today.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................PAT..wake up LOL...you see the track now?..very interesting when it hits that hot gulf water near the coastlines


those tracks probably arent going to be accurate. They will probably be further south in the gulf in the next 24 hours.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1920. LargoFl
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto says he will show us and the trade winds who's boss...

Ernesto is becoming a large storm, although not quite as large as Category 5s that went through that area in past.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7462
85mph system before landfall in the Yucatan.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting DataNerd:



If that is for 91L then yes I would be in agreement.


Buoy data combined with radar and Vis sat pretty clearly shows a developing circulation over the Bahamas.


Where its going to go is a somewhat interesting question it appears to be drifting south atm.


No 90 l
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1916. Patrap
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................PAT..wake up LOL...you see the track now?..very interesting when it hits that hot gulf water near the coastlines




3 BAMMS and Fresca?
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 64.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 64.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 66.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.7N 69.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.3N 73.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1913. Patrap
There is a Lotta Mojo starting to swing around with 91L definitely.

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
91L


I see outflow boundaries. While the thunderstorms do look impressive, it still has a long way to go before classification is even considered.
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Link



Last 3 frames 91L looking very good overall, weak TS even in appearance.


Don't be surprised if you see them start with this thing in the next 4 hrs.
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1909. Patrap
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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1907. LargoFl
.....................PAT..wake up LOL...you see the track now?..very interesting when it hits that hot gulf water near the coastlines
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.