Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
I always love this, when blog posts start paralleling our own current time frame... lol.

Be sure to record the time and date for history's sake - it doesn't happen often.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
In all seriousness, storms have a history of developing quickly in the Bahamas. I wasn't too worried about this earlier in the day, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on now as it continues to organize at the surface.



Especially as the steering is toward the NW and into the Gulf. Could have Florence or Gordon tomorrow from 91L.
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2005. Levi32
Large spread in the ECMWF ensembles at 12z indicates that a significant number of the ensemble members show Ernesto taking a very reasonable track across the northeastern Yucatan into the western Gulf of Mexico, aiming for the far northern Mexican coastline.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
In all seriousness, storms have a history of developing quickly in the Bahamas. I wasn't too worried about this earlier in the day, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on now as it continues to organize at the surface.



it sure looks messy, but is in a dangerous breeding ground. gulf stream current near by as well. what is the sheer value in this area?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


My wife was scared to leave the library, she and my daughter stayed an extra hour till the storms passed. Good place to be stuck in though, plenty to do.
I bet Guanabanas cleared out pretty fast.......Maybe everyone should have shifted to Schooners.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
In all seriousness, storms have a history of developing quickly in the Bahamas. I wasn't too worried about this earlier in the day, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on now as it continues to organize at the surface.

850 mb. vort increasing:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628


Planning on writing a blog on Ernesto tonight. I have quite the unorthodox views on the future of this cyclone. ;P
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1999. LargoFl
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
NORTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LAKEWOOD...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF TOMS RIVER...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAKEWOOD AROUND 505 PM EDT...
6 MILES EAST OF JACKSONS MILLS AROUND 520 PM EDT...
FREEWOOD ACRES...HOWELL...FARMINGDALE AND ADELPHIA AROUND 545 PM
EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 4027 7428 4020 7401 3999 7417 4006 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 199DEG 5KT 4008 7424



HEAVENER
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Moving: W at 21 mph


Starting to slow down.
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1997. atl134
Quoting ClevelandBob:
What will Ernesto's 5PM EDT intensity be?
A. 45
B. 50
C. 60


BC: 55

Note: I made this guess before seeing/looking it up.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Ernesto poses a bigger threat....much bigger than 91L. I know 91L is closest to home, but honestly it's being overhyped a little too much on here, don't ya think?


I will be sure to pass crow on to the blog come Monday as 91L is ramping up right now. This will spin up quick and not FL has to worry about this as this will likely head for the Gulf.

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1994. LargoFl
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Weather outside Tropics.

HUGE FIRE near Oklahoma City spreading this afternoon under intense heat and drought

http://www.weather.com/news/oklahoma-wildfire-201 20803
..with that HUGE heatwave I am surprised this isnt happening more often in Oklahoma..115 degree's and no rain for geez seems like forever
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1993. Patrap
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
PP.... I am in West Palm, but I kept looking at the WPTV radar and saw that Jupiter was getting hammered.


My wife was scared to leave the library, she and my daughter stayed an extra hour till the storms passed. Good place to be stuck in though, plenty to do.
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Quoting AllStar17:
From discussion:

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.


Debby downers
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Quoting Patrap:


Not pleasant at all.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Ernesto looks good... We should see 60mph at 11PM:



not super looking, but the cloud canopy has increased in size quite a bit
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NHC floater seems to be down can anyone else confirm
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NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.


THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
Sounds like low confidence in terms of the intensity and the track in the long range. A lot will depend on the strength of Ernesto. I see a stronger storm more likely a Hurricane gaining latitude and making it into the GOM as opposed to a tropical storm. I guess only time will tell.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Weather outside Tropics.

HUGE FIRE near Oklahoma City spreading this afternoon under intense heat and drought

http://www.weather.com/news/oklahoma-wildfire-201 20803
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.






What I am considering now is basically what sort of a storm I will be looking at in the Gulf come Tuesday.

If its a cat 1 or 2 I am probably in the clear. If its a cat 3 or strong cat, and is intensifying I will have to consider my options.

That of course would apply given a NW track toward SE Texas.

If I was going to leave I would need to leave Tuesday due to traffic issues. Learned during Rita if you wait to see whether it turns or not you don't get out.
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In all seriousness, storms have a history of developing quickly in the Bahamas. I wasn't too worried about this earlier in the day, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on now as it continues to organize at the surface.

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Quoting tropicfreak:
Ernesto poses a bigger threat....much bigger than 91L. I know 91L is closest to home, but honestly it's being overhyped a little too much on here, don't ya think?
Thank you! I'm getting slammed on by Floridians today for saying that. It's not gonna be tropical storm. Ernesto COULD be a MAJOR in Gulf of Mexico next week.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
1981. LargoFl
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF WHITEHALL...OR
12 MILES EAST OF GONZALES...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SORRENTO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 3035 9069 3017 9064 3013 9080 3016 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 130DEG 5KT 3019 9073



CAB
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Ernesto poses a bigger threat....much bigger than 91L. I know 91L is closest to home, but honestly it's being overhyped a little too much on here, don't ya think?
I would agree.One person saying it could even turn into a hurricane..
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1979. Patrap
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Ernesto looks good... We should see 60mph at 11PM:

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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32806
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if I agree with Ernesto moving over the Yucatan. I still think the Yucatan Channel seems more likely considering it appears we're going to see gradual strengthening as it moves across the East and Central Caribbean.
I actually like that track over the northern yucatan. my track has shifted farther south. i see ernesto making landfall in Extreme northern yucatan and then remerging in the Central Gulf heading towards texas
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I can surely vouch for those storms being nasty. It's been a long time since we've been pounded like that here in Jupiter.
PP.... I am in West Palm, but I kept looking at the WPTV radar and saw that Jupiter was getting hammered.
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Ernesto poses a bigger threat....much bigger than 91L. I know 91L is closest to home, but honestly it's being overhyped a little too much on here, don't ya think?
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1971. LargoFl
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1970. Patrap
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Quoting DataNerd:



I don't see that holding post recon do you?

Expect north shift around 10?

I agree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32806
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll need to be shifted north eventually.


yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1967. ncstorm
45% for all hurricane categories
32% for Category 1
10% for Category 2

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"I'm only human..." "born to make mistakes"
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tis what I thought:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS."



I don't see that holding post recon do you?

Expect north shift around 10?
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Quoting SouthTampa:
Looks like some nasty storms are about to roll into Tampa Bay. It looks to be an active weekend around here with Ernesto and 91L... Time to head home.


I can surely vouch for those storms being nasty. It's been a long time since we've been pounded like that here in Jupiter.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Observations out of Northern Cuba show west winds.



still very broad circulation, but when west winds are evident, nhc might start taking a better look-see.
it is in their backyard.
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1962. LargoFl
..............whew gonna hit Tampa on rush hour
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's interesting. What speed? There are a lot of thunderstorms in the area from daytime heating so it is possible that might be from them.

Fairly weak...only 5kts from what I can see.
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From discussion:

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
I have been thru many hurricanes...so tx pat for the info, pics and reminders about preparedness. oh and tx grother (#1845) for making me laugh when i get caught up in the weather!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tis what I thought:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS."
Disagree with that reasoning. They are giving a little too much credence to the GFS/ECMWF duo when they should be following the TVCN down the middle.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
5 P.M. Advisory is out. No change to 91L or 90L, will wait until 8.

Ernesto looking better and for now, track is held slightly further back to the south again but is not around the model consensus, this is due to the outliers ECMWF and GFS.



I wonder how many runs it takes before the models take into account the influence of 91L, which was a non-issue until about 6 hrs ago.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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