Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:
91L deserves a significant jump in percentage at the next TWO.


Trying to pinpoint were a possible surface circulation maybe developing is Difficult under that cloud shield.
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Levi? Are you impressed with Ernesto's satellite presentation? It looks like he has doubled in size and the intensity of the convection has markedly gotton stronger. Are we not coming up to DMIN?
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With 91L in close proximity to Ernesto later in the term we may have a game changer, not sure what could happen but I sense that forecasting either of them right now is going to be very challenging to say the least.
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Quoting BDAwx:

Why's that?
I highly doubt that Ernesto will weaken considerably to the point that both the ECMWF and GFS depict, thus constituting to the more westward track in response to zonal shallow-layer steering. Personally I find steady strengthening more likely beyond 24 hours, with even quicker intensification thereafter pointing towards a slightly more poleward track. Currently I'm south of the GFDL solution, but north of the official track; right around the 18z TVCN solution basically.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2053. Patrap
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Quoting BDAwx:

Yessir


were they good/what you wanted?
I know i missed a few frames
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Does 91L have a circulation with it? I as because I see so many saying it's close to being the next system.
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Being that the bad thunderstorms started at 10am in south florida I think it is outflow boundaries not just from the storms over the mainland today.
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2049. LargoFl
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Quoting Tazmanian:



going too Ernesto


correct:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Definitely building some tall tops this evening. Interested to see what it looks like in the morning.

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Nice graphic out of the NWS office in Corpus Christi, TX regarding Ernesto's future path possibilities. :P



In the meantime, it looks like most of the recent convection has been firing closer to the center, which is good for the system.

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Ernesto is becoming a teenager now... no longer a baby tropcial depression, but a strong teenager tropical storm. Wondering if it'll mature and grow into big adult major hurricane?

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
2044. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is it going into 91L or Ernesto. As 91L could be close to a TS right now.

..ok ty ST..the sky over Tampa way is sure getting DARK...we are gonna get what you got before
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2043. BDAwx
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


did you get the images from debby?

Yessir
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2042. ncstorm
Quoting MississippiWx:


Pretty sure the map you posted said 10%. Regardless, 4% is still pretty good considering the uncertainty. If trends continue, Ernesto could be a major before it even reaches the Gulf.


Miss..its says 4% and that is a very low probability especially when it goes up to a 100..

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Quoting MississippiWx:
91L deserves a significant jump in percentage at the next TWO.



same here i say at lest 50% ch of it fourming
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Wow, get back from braces/shopping:( and I find Ernesto doing better, 90L almost a TD, and a new invest 91L. Did I miss anything?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
(click to enlarge)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
91L deserves a significant jump in percentage at the next TWO.
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Quoting DataNerd:




Yes, because usually once the storm establishes a good mid level circulation and outflow pattern it requires upper level systems to disrupt it, sfc patterns (aside from dry air pockets) become less of a factor to intensification.



If the current appearance of Ernesto is any guide, its finally getting its act together.


Looks like Ernesto is ventilating well to all quadrants?
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Quoting BDAwx:

Why's that?


did you get the images from debby?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is it going into 91L or Ernesto. As 91L could be close to a TS right now.




going too Ernesto
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
2007... what do you mean?

I mean that when lots of stuff is spinning between Africa and North America, this blog tends to think either about stuff well in the past (as in other major hurricanes), or stuff well into the future (model runs 5 days out). Not stuff going on in here and now.
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Quoting ncstorm:
for those of yall calling for a major in the GOM...the NHC is giving it a 4% chance..


come on na!


problem is the NHC never forecasts storms "Bombing out" with RI or anything..A lot of people have that as a possibility
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting Tazmanian:
i have good news


the recon is up


Is it going into 91L or Ernesto. As 91L could be close to a TS right now.

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Quoting ncstorm:
for those of yall calling for a major in the GOM...the NHC is giving it a 4% chance..


come on na!


Pretty sure the map you posted said 10%. Regardless, 4% is still pretty good considering the uncertainty. If trends continue, Ernesto could be a major before it even reaches the Gulf.
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2030. BDAwx
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Disagree with that reasoning. They are giving a little too much credence to the GFS/ECMWF duo when they should be following the TVCN down the middle.

Why's that?
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Needless to say NHC and alot of regional NWS boys and girls gonna be busy this weekend...I'm working in the Gulf so guess I'll keep one eye on Ernie and one on
91-L...
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Quoting LargoFl:
..with that HUGE heatwave I am surprised this isnt happening more often in Oklahoma..115 degree's and no rain for geez seems like forever


well if Ernesto has his way like everyone keeps saying (headed for Texas they say) then you'll finally probably see rain. It is my guess though that heat due to the high pressure will be what drives Ernesto further east.
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If 91L is just east of Andros Island,that's like 200 miles SE of Miami and moving at 5-10mph,could be over water for some time.
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2024. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:
you know its damn funny..people always complain..oh these floridians post too much...well..what IS the weather where YOU live?..why arent YOU posting YOUR warnings from YOUR area?..why must WE do it for you?.......anyhow..lost of warnings out there around the country..i just posted a few..here is another one...participation folks, from all area's is what we really need....................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OLD TOWN...BANGOR...
CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MAINE...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EAST CORINTH...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEXTER...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KENDUSKEAG...HERMON...HAMPDEN...BREWER...VEAZIE... ORONO AND DEDHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CONTACTING YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.



LAT...LON 4496 6841 4459 6856 4490 6923 4508 6913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 293DEG 42KT 4494 6906



NORTON


Largo..exactly!!
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I'm sorry but I don't quite understand the reasoning of the shift to the left and I will tell you why.

1. TVCC/TVCN consensus shifted 100 miles to the right, they shift it to the left and admit that it is south of consensus. (By my estimate about 100 miles)

2. They admit that while it is more organized, they would check for confirmation before upping the speed, yet they keep the intensity forecast level for 24 hours before increasing it. Plus, a stronger system has a more deep center allowing it to feel weakness more.

3. I understand that the GFS/ECMWF combo is reliable, but now they are more outliers and should be discounted due to the sheer fact that they did not initialize correctly and Ernesto has a stronger circulation that will be harder to open up. (like these models are forecasting.)

I understand that these are professional and most of them , if not all have masters degrees in tropical meteorology. However, I don't get the reasoning to change the forecast that way... Hopefully they made the right decision though.
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i have good news


the recon is up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Nice thank you Beaumont Weather:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting StormGoddess:
Ash is falling from the sky from the wildfires in Cleveland County just to our west. Everything is a strange orange color from the sun shining through the smoke. The smell is horrendous. Oh dear....
Where are you StormGoddess...? Be careful
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Quoting weatherh98:


No 90 l


Harrison, you done swimming yet?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
2018. ncstorm
for those of yall calling for a major in the GOM...the NHC is giving it a 4% chance..


come on na!
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I know everyone is way too preoccupied with Ernesto and 90L/91L (2000 comments today!), but here in my neck of the woods, we've got the first tornado potential in months...

S4 65 dBZ 37,000 ft. 73 kg/m 90% chance 100% chance 2.50 in. 25 knots WSW (258)





SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

SDC021-129-032100-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-120803T2100Z/
CAMPBELL SD-WALWORTH SD-
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
WALWORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JAVA...OR 5 MILES EAST
OF SELBY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 345 PM GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN SELBY
WITH THIS STORM. HAIL HAS FALLEN FOR 20 MINUTES.
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News 13 in Orlando says this could spin up fast and the C & S FL need to be ready for a possible storm later this weekend.

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2015. LargoFl
you know its damn funny..people always complain..oh these floridians post too much...well..what IS the weather where YOU live?..why arent YOU posting YOUR warnings from YOUR area?..why must WE do it for you?.......anyhow..lost of warnings out there around the country..i just posted a few..here is another one...participation folks, from all area's is what we really need....................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OLD TOWN...BANGOR...
CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MAINE...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EAST CORINTH...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEXTER...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KENDUSKEAG...HERMON...HAMPDEN...BREWER...VEAZIE... ORONO AND DEDHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CONTACTING YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.



LAT...LON 4496 6841 4459 6856 4490 6923 4508 6913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 293DEG 42KT 4494 6906



NORTON
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Ash is falling from the sky from the wildfires in Cleveland County just to our west. Everything is a strange orange color from the sun shining through the smoke. The smell is horrendous. Oh dear....




yellow stone blowing up run for your life
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Quoting tropicfreak:
Ernesto poses a bigger threat....much bigger than 91L. I know 91L is closest to home, but honestly it's being overhyped a little too much on here, don't ya think?


All due respect but I tend to disagree. Will 91L develop? Maybe. Will it be a TS or Hurricane before it gets here? Probably Not. However, it has happened before and to just completely discount it is not wise IMO.
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Ernesto:

Link






91L:
Link






Both looking like TS's atm.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
Ash is falling from the sky from the wildfires in Cleveland County just to our west. Everything is a strange orange color from the sun shining through the smoke. The smell is horrendous. Oh dear....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
I always love this, when blog posts start paralleling our own current time frame... lol.

Be sure to record the time and date for history's sake - it doesn't happen often.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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