Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2107 - 2057

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Time: 21:08:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5333N 65.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 624.1 mb (~ 18.43 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,107 meters (~ 13,474 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.8 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 55° at 33 knots (From the NE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 3.9°C (~ 39.0°F)
Dew Pt: -3.2°C (~ 26.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)

And it's still pretty far from center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Going to be a interesting night with Ernesto.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
2105. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:
Ahh, for the days of just Radio a Map and Pin.


Sheeesh



Yes, indeed, I remember those antediluvian days well. Sitting there with my Hallicrafters SX-71, listening to the marine bands and hourly updates out of Miami, as well as ship reports coming in. It's nice to be able to see everythig in real time but I kind of miss the challenge of trying to place the COC on the map and tracking it with yarn attached to push pins. There was no such thing as models back then (1960) and knowing much beyond 12 hours was just a guess. Now we have such information overload that everyone can see something different in the same model runs and satellite photos and argue about it for hours or days on end. I guess it's what we call progress. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2104. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
OSCAT not much help on 91L





Oceansat 17:34z pass shows a formative circulation could be developing:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2103. LargoFl
......................................Local met just said, almost 2000 lightning strikes in the last hour..whew
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wont be on for awhile, after this...
My forecast for the next 6 Hours ---
Ernesto @ 11 pm Advisory:
60 mph
999 MB

8 Pm TWO %'s:
90L: 80%
91L: 50%
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2101. emguy
Ernesto will clearly win out on the weakening/open wave debate now. In fact, Carribean Trade Winds ahead of the system will likely begin to slacken. In fact, Ernesto's signature has improved to the point now where the cumulous streets over the Central Carribean are begining to become involved in Ernesto's overall circulation pattern. Furthermore, 91L will also help out here, note it is developing inflow jet on it's southeastern flank, which is also will be reducing the influence of the ridge, which was producing the rapid trades over the Carribean. Its going to get even more interesting...Fast...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2100. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like Ernesto went North a bit? Just looking at that circle with the convection around it. Maybe 14.8N or 15.0N?


13.9N looks like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 21:11:00Z
Coordinates: 15.4N 65.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 728.6 mb (~ 21.52 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,876 meters (~ 9,436 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1017.7 mb (~ 30.05 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 53° at 22 knots (From the NE at ~ 25.3 mph)
Air Temp: 10.7°C (~ 51.3°F)
Dew Pt: 0.7°C (~ 33.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon already noting an increase in winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:



I'm well, thanks. You're I think the 3rd WU blogger to plan a trip to Alaska in the last year :) It makes me feel less far away.


Iwa in Anchorage in 1964 for the 9.2 Quake. That baby had some giddyup!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon.
Seems we could have Ernesto, Florence and maybe even Gordon occurring at the same time...in early August...during an El Niño year.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like Ernesto is ventilating well to all quadrants?


Starting to look like the real deal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Where are you StormGoddess...? Be careful

We are in Northern Pottawatomie County.
Thanks, I appreciate the concern.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Ahh, for the days of just Radio a Map and Pin.


Sheeesh



And Nash wid his Map and felt tip pens...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is it going into 91L or Ernesto. As 91L could be close to a TS right now.


If it is a TS its the ugliest one this season...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2090. jeebsa
Good to see everyone is in full swing here. Its definitely getting interesting out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the nhc need to shift that cone N and E I think they would do that soon

also I think that Ernesto is way stronger than what the 5pm advisory says we wiil have to wait till the hunter fly in which should be very very soon

btw never mind about the NHC sat not work its back

I think Ernesto is a 65MPH or 70MPH storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
anyone care to venture a guess on what the pressure the hh will find in Ernesto my guess 999 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nearing cruising altitude:

211100 1524N 06528W 7286 02876 0177 +107 +007 053022 023 016 000 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting windshear1993:
thats crazy how 91L looks better than ernesto


Have to disagree with that point of view.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2083. Patrap








Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OSCAT not much help on 91L



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
HH in their now?.
Going toward Ernesto right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HH in their now?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
25 to 30 mph surface winds this far from the center? Impressive...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2077. Patrap







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
60 mph is a good bet.



wow, a band of clouds expanding westward, overtaking fully the coc, and making ernesto much more symettrical for now
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9718
Quoting MississippiWx:
91L deserves a significant jump in percentage at the next TWO.


90L might also as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon descending...


210100 1555N 06512W 5281 05451 0283 -028 -082 072017 021 025 000 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Levi32:


Eyewall?



Looks like Ernesto went North a bit? Just looking at that circle with the convection around it. Maybe 14.8N or 15.0N?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting hurricane23:


Trying to pinpoint were a possible surface circulation maybe developing is Difficult under that cloud shield.


Agreed. Wish we could have a recon in tonight. Cloud movement patterns would make one think one is trying to form in there somewhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
1131 TropicalAnalystwx13: Maybe bolding and big wording makes it seen...
[unbolded]There is no 2PM AST Intermediate Advisory On Tropical Storm Ernesto Because All Tropical Cyclone Watches And Warnings Were Discontinued At 11AM AST.

So what? Wishcast your little heart away that the next storm will be a Cat.6
A lot of us like studying TropicalCyclones, including how they die.
Besides it ain't as if the AL05-ATCF has been Deactivated. So I'll be following the WaVe as long as the (NHC)ATCF keeps posting.

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 3August6pmGMT:
MinimumPressure stayed at 1002millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 266.8%uFFFDWest@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 276.7%uFFFDWest@20.3mph(32.7km/h)

CDD-PuertoLempira :: AUA-Aruba :: NGD-Anegada :: SLU-St.Lucia :: BGI-Barbados :: SVD-St.Vincent

The Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TD.5 became TS.Ernesto
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent to a coastline
3August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over PraslinBay,St.Lucia
3August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed 5.1miles(8.2kilometres)South of St.Lucia on its way to passage 17.2miles(27.7kilometres)North of Aruba.
3August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over ParqueNacionalKruta near PuertoLempira in ~2days15hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste [] into the
GreatCircleMapper for the larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.

I think you need to reread my comment and the posts before that before you start with your usual rude tone at people. What you stated is not what I meant at all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
2069. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think they'll find 55-65 mph SURFACE WINDS in Ernesto with 60-70 mph flight winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1131 TropicalAnalystwx13: Maybe bolding and big wording makes it seen... [unbolded&unbigged]
There is no 2PM AST Intermediate Advisory On Tropical Storm Ernesto Because All Tropical Cyclone Watches And Warnings Were Discontinued At 11AM AST.

So what? A lot of us like studying TropicalCyclones, including how they die. Besides, it ain't as if the AL05-ATCF has been Deactivated. So I'll be following the WaVe as long as the ATCF keeps posting.

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 3August6pmGMT:
MinimumPressure stayed at 1002millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 266.8*West@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 276.7*West@20.3mph(32.7km/h)

CDD-PuertoLempira :: AUA-Aruba :: SLU-St.Lucia :: BGI-Barbados :: SVD-St.Vincent

The Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TD.5 became TS.Ernesto
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent to a coastline
3August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over PraslinBay,St.Lucia
3August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed 5.1miles(8.2kilometres)South of St.Lucia on its way to passage 17.2miles(27.7kilometres)North of Aruba.
3August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over ParqueNacionalKruta near PuertoLempira in ~2days15hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pnd, cdd, aua-12.623n70.055w-12.872n70.082w, ngd, fdf, slu, svd, bgi, 13.1n55.5w-13.3n57.4w, 13.3n57.4w-13.7n59.8w,13.7n59.8w-13.6n61.5w, 13.6n61.5w-13.8n63.3w, 13.6n61.5w-15.1n83.315w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5 o'clock
the tropics now
have my full attention
for the next 96hrs

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
2065. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
,,these situ's, well can if given the right conditions,









The Florida Straights are known to power up system like that one very quickly when there isnt any shear involved.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2064. Patrap
Quoting jeffs713:

Rough COC off the western tip of Andros.


Dats my Tally Ho, ping, dat middle,,etc,etc'

: )

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2063. yoboi
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Whats the chances 91 comes into gulf?


very good chance.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Ernesto:

Link






91L:
Link






Both looking like TS's atm.


Both looking like cigar band indians, and I have heard somewhere that is a bad sign for those in the path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
60 mph is a good bet.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
2060. Patrap
Ahh, for the days of just Radio a Map and Pin.


Sheeesh

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

Rough COC off the western tip of Andros.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Does 91L have a circulation with it? I as because I see so many saying it's close to being the next system.




yes or one is fourming a W wind was reported from some where 91L is really starting too spin up fast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114650
Quoting MississippiWx:
91L deserves a significant jump in percentage at the next TWO.


Trying to pinpoint were a possible surface circulation maybe developing is Difficult under that cloud shield.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2107 - 2057

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.