Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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5257. scott39
Ernesto weakened???
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I can't believe that Ernesto has winds of only 50mph when it looks so good on satellite.
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5254. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Not to bad!:)


tyring to make a comback but still looks like a north fl event rather than south fl unless it build more conv to the south like it did yesterday wait and see but no rip yet it could still stall where it is now and bloom ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6756
as stated earlier the NHC in the discussion states the models are not doing well either in track or intensity
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From Steve Weagle in WPB
As promised some morning sunshine...but it will disappear as we go through the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms will develop today and tonight with heavy rain in spots. The tropical wave is still over the Bahamas and moving slowly this way.
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.
Intermediate Advisory will be written now at 2 and 8.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Notice the direction now! WNW
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
5247. ncstorm
oh Ernesto..weaker and going to Mexico..buenos noches!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15137
5246. LargoFl
.................................Daytona beach cam
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
5245. Patrap
Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
1008mb? that is ridicolous!! also WNW movement now..
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Why? So far, the highest wind found was 53.8 mph. The rest have been 45mph - 50mph. Unless they find something exceptional in the next 10 minutes, the NHC will lower it to 50mph.

I was thinking they would keep it for continuity and on the basis that the deep bursts of convection would help sustain the stronger wind gusts.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1500 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 32.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 36.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 30.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
5241. Patrap
TFP's and ZOOM are active

Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC may have to think twice about dropping the intensity back to 50 mph.

Why? So far, the highest wind found was 53.8 mph. The rest have been 45mph - 50mph. Unless they find something exceptional in the next 10 minutes, the NHC will lower it to 50mph.
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Everyone that's watching the HH obs. Please stop.
Ernesto know we are watching and he's not liking it.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERNESTO WEAKER DESPITE THE WELL
ORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
5237. scott39
GFDL is spot on imo.
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Nevermind. :P

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 68.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 68.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Not to bad!:)
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This is a really disorganized storm!


Should open up to a wave later... (sarcasm)
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I say for the forecast should remain steady as it is till nightfall then strengthening thereafter
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5232. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
I think Florence could be like Irene in 05 except further south
I can't help but think of Florence + the Machine
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Again the models are not initialing Ernesto very well if you look at them closely they are having a hard time with the ridge and the weakness that will develop in the eastern gulf and the intensity of Ernesto all of those factors will determine its path. Intensity,location of trof and the Atlantic High position , the stronger the storm the more to the right it may go the weaker the further south it will go so stay tuned lets wait and see how things play out
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5229. MZT
Looks like Ernesto is a large but not very strong storm right now... I'd expect slow organization and for the models to shift west some more. But agree he could become a hurricane tonight if the dry air mixes out well.
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Out for now, gotta go to work
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5227. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:34Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 28

14:35:00Z 15.633N 67.367W 842.6 mb

(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,598 meters
(~ 5,243 feet) 1013.3 mb
(~ 29.92 inHg) - From 128° at 43 knots
(From the SE at ~ 49.4 mph) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 9.3°C
(~ 48.7°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 32.5 knots (~ 37.4 mph)
75.6%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 14:25:30Z (first observation), the observation was 223 miles (359 km) to the SSW (202°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 14:35:00Z (last observation), the observation was 211 miles (339 km) to the SSW (204°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting Seflhurricane:
not really winds in the NE qua around 55 Mph so i assume the NHC will leave it at 60MPh for the 11am
55 MPH at the flight level.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC may have to think twice about dropping the intensity back to 50 mph.


have they found anything over 50?
I see a lot of 48s
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC may have to think twice about dropping the intensity back to 50 mph.
Why?

SFMR is just under 50 MPH, and flight level 850mb winds are just under 60 MPH.
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5223. Patrap
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Seriously miami lol
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Could Florence possibly do what Julia did in 2010?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, boring storm.

Later y'all.
see ya later i think at the 5pm its going to be intresting
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Two hours old:

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Quoting hericane96:
the ensemble models are all over the place.


spreading, US more likely for a hit now, wonder if operational will budge..

btw with florence the streak of the "she" storm being the bad ones compared to the wimpy or non important "he" storms is over
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting hericane96:
the ensemble models are all over the place.
i wouldnt pay attention to the models since ernestos circulation is still weak it may reform and that con throw the models out.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
not really winds in the NE qua around 55 Mph so i assume the NHC will leave it at 60MPh for the 11am
Lol, boring storm.

Later y'all.
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Quoting mcluvincane:



23 use to be a respectable forecaster but now just spits out nonsense


Well, it's bad initialization.

It starts off ignoring half the convection, and with a circulation that is wrong by 4 to 8 millibars, which is a pretty big deal with a 1000 to 1010mb system, and so what do you expect?


I've noticed this on many occasions. The Euro just sucks at initializing weak systems in the Atlantic.
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5214. scott39
Ernesto is slowing down some
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5213. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
Just posted a brief tropical update on my blog if anyone is interested in reading: Typical August


As a side note after spending an hour putting that together, I have a much greater appreciation for what Dr. Masters, and other bloggers do here. It's a lot of work, just putting together a short post.
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Quoting hericane96:
the ensemble models are all over the place.

LOL at the models sending it to the Eastern Pacific.
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After much criticizing, my intensity forecast last night may not end up too far off the mark. Recon reveals that pressures have slowly risen for the last several hours over Ernesto. Wind vectors indicate the circulation is also pretty weak to the SW, with most wind barbs at 5 to 10 knots.
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NHC may have to think twice about dropping the intensity back to 50 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anything noteworthy found by Recon?
not really winds in the NE qua around 55 Mph so i assume the NHC will leave it at 60MPh for the 11am
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the ensemble models are all over the place.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.