Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Recon is about to enter Ernesto's CDO -- if you could even really call it that.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2156. Patrap
We all remember them like family in a way, Hazel, Carla, Hilda, Frederick, Elena, Opal, Ike,Wilma, Andrew,Gilbert,Mitch...

We all remember the first with that awe though,..until something comes along and shatters that myth completely.

Best to be ready for 2012.

Itsa on'




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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Most recent microwave pass on Ernesto (only a touch over an hour old).



Looks like continued organization to me.
Hmmmmm
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting Levi32:


It looks exactly like that. The only exception is the central pressure, which is not resolved well on the GFS 35km grid. That is pretty much a standard analysis by a global model for any tropical cyclone.
Hey Levi for some reason i see ernesto following the GFDL track, i see it coming thru the yucatan channel and not make landfall on the yucatan i just cant see a hurricane get pulled west with a trof coming down to the gulf coast
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Has your opinion about 91L changed since earlier this afternoon GeorgiaStormz? Intensity guidance has certainly gone up with 91L. Starting to look very dicey.


i have changed not much..what exactly did i say before?

im out for now guys
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2152. Grothar
Quoting 7544:
ok so where in fl will 91L hit land


Still to early to tell, but these are the latest.

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2151. LargoFl
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Quoting Levi32:


It looks exactly like that. The only exception is the central pressure, which is not resolved well on the GFS 35km grid. That is pretty much a standard analysis by a global model for any tropical cyclone.

Ernesto is not a weak open low like the GFS is portraying.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting Hurricanes101:
90L looks very impressive, would not be shocked to see TD 6 tomorrow

Or TD 7... if 90L pulls a fast one...
Which it will. Its far more impressive on satellite than 91L. and will likely be declared tomorrow morning..
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Quoting Levi32:


It looks exactly like that. The only exception is the central pressure, which is not resolved well on the GFS 35km grid.


Looks like an open wave with a weak low.
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very likely we will have Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica Tonight and hurrican Watch for Grand Cayman , remember Folks the stronger ernesto gets it will feel the trof coming to the gulf coast
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2145. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is what the 12z GFS said Ernesto should look like at 21UTC (right now).



Yeah, pretty large error...


It looks exactly like that. The only exception is the central pressure, which is not resolved well on the GFS 35km grid. That is pretty much a standard analysis by a global model for any tropical cyclone.
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2144. LargoFl
Canaveral bouy.................. the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.05 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
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Most recent microwave pass on Ernesto (only a touch over an hour old).



Looks like continued organization to me. Still a long way to go though.
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2141. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
2105. sar2401


A good look back,thanx

52 years later, itsa all about the Human Eye, and element at the end of the day.


We did pretty good in those days, Pat. Here was mine for Hazel in 1954. I "nailed" that one.




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Quoting MississippiWx:
This is what the 12z GFS said Ernesto should look like at 21UTC (right now).



Yeah, pretty large error...

very large
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90L looks very impressive, would not be shocked to see TD 6 tomorrow
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Has your opinion about 91L changed since earlier this afternoon GeorgiaStormz? Intensity guidance has certainly gone up with 91L. Starting to look very dicey.
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Quoting DataNerd:
It is a reasonable bet at this point that we may see near cat 1 or cat 1 out of Ernesto, if nothing changes, by tomorrow morning.

I'd say more of Sunday... If trends continue...
Which they probably won't he'll have his good times... and bad... as long as he stays potent like he is now... He will have a chance at becoming something much larger down the road... In about 3 to 4 days.
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91L will likely get bumped to 50-60 % center is starting to get organized but still very weak
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I'm trying to understnad all this. Before Ernesto was a TD or TS,he'd had all less than ideal environment for strengthening,but it seems like thats all he's done. With the exception of the heavy shear,he's hung on and seems to be strengthening,at least by looking at his satellite presentation. i.e.Stroner Convection and Almost doubled his size. All in a poor environment and all when it had a very weak circulation,from what people ar saying he still does.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5106
well, there's the warning:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL EDMUNDS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWDLE...OR 25 MILES WEST OF
IPSWICH...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROSCOE AND LOYALTON AROUND 440 PM CDT...

THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 232 AND 253.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4553 9921 4527 9922 4529 9962 4545 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 258DEG 28KT 4538 9951


brief TVS on radar...

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2132. Patrap
Quoting StephanInNOLA:

I loved watching Nash give his forecasts back in the day. I wonder what he'd be saying about Ernesto here.


"No need to Panic, but were watching the forecasts carefully, and we'll let you know if any significant changes occur''

He was a Icon.

Betsy, Camille, and when the neighborhood saw Nash and his wife leaving for Katrina,



The WHOLE neighborhood soon followed.

Not one life was lost there.
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Time: 21:21:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0833N 65.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,573 meters (~ 5,161 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 76° at 22 knots (From the ENE at ~ 25.3 mph)
Air Temp: 17.8°C (~ 64.0°F)
Dew Pt: 8.5°C (~ 47.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
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2130. LargoFl
alabama has had its share of severe storms this week huh..................16
WUUS54 KMOB 032120
SVRMOB
ALC039-032145-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0169.120803T2120Z-120803T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 415 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FLORALA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF LAUREL HILL...AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL SOUTH CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.



LAT...LON 3102 8634 3101 8658 3114 8661 3120 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 323DEG 7KT 3109 8647
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Quoting DataNerd:
91L coc now visible on radar: Link
looks like its on the NW tip of andros island
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Repost:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I wont be on for awhile, after this...
My forecast for the next 6 Hours ---
Ernesto @ 11 pm Advisory:
60 mph
999 MB

8 Pm TWO %'s:
90L: 80%
91L: 70%
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Miami,

Almost fell out of my chair yesterday after viewing the SHIPS 700-500mb RH data for 18Z...

Are today's runs following up with much of the same data--juicy RH and low shear up ahead...?
Basically yes. Anything beyond 48 hours on the 18z SHIPS constitutes towards conditions favorable enough for explosive intensification. The combination of a moist mid-level environment, extremely favorable upper-level winds, and abundant oceanic heat content is an ugly one. (Sorry to be so DOOM-ish BTW LOL).

Interesting thing to note is how the SHIPS only analyzed 7kts of upper-level winds over Ernesto, so that's kind of weird.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Patrap:


Nash, hes watching with Hope, and the Rest.



sooo cool the old days
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let keep in mind that 91L could be drawing energy from the heating of the day it my diminish tonight we'll see
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Time: 21:08:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5333N 65.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 624.1 mb (~ 18.43 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,107 meters (~ 13,474 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.8 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 55° at 33 knots (From the NE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 3.9°C (~ 39.0°F)
Dew Pt: -3.2°C (~ 26.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)

And it's still pretty far from center.
i am noticing the same thing looks very likely recon will find a 55-60mph TS
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2122. Grothar
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It is a reasonable bet at this point that we may see near cat 1 or cat 1 out of Ernesto, if nothing changes, by tomorrow morning.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting Patrap:
Ahh, for the days of just Radio a Map and Pin.


Sheeesh



Good One - I remember those days.
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2119. Patrap
Quoting canehater1:


And Nash wid his Map and felt tip pens...


Nash, hes watching with Hope, and the Rest.



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2118. LargoFl
.............................Shields going up
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Quoting canehater1:


And Nash wid his Map and felt tip pens...

I loved watching Nash give his forecasts back in the day. I wonder what he'd be saying about Ernesto here.
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91L coc now visible on radar: Link
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Ernesto has shaken his inhibitors and is headed to hurricane strength tomorrow at the latest imo. 91L may not be to TS strength, but if the NHC finds a COC it may certainly be nearing TD strength. 91L going to really be a close call. The inverted trough associated with the wave had held together impressively over the the last two nights. Not expecting 91L to dissipate like prior blobs recently in the same area. Still needs to organize a little to get a name, but this disturbance has a lot more going for it than the blobs of a couple weeks ago.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oceansat-2 17:34z pass shows a formative circulation could be developing:



Ya i saw that, NESDIS and KMI must use different algorithms since it is the same data, ,although NESDIS is at 25km vs KMI 50km. Forgot I posted the same 50km NESDIS.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
2113. Patrap
2105. sar2401


A good look back,thanx

52 years later, itsa all about the Human Eye, and element at the end of the day.
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This is what the 12z GFS said Ernesto should look like at 21UTC (right now).



Yeah, pretty large error...
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2111. 7544
ok so where in fl will 91L hit land
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Ernesto is becoming a teenager now... no longer a baby tropcial depression, but a strong teenager tropical storm. Wondering if it'll mature and grow into big adult major hurricane?


Ernesto appears similar to Tomas 10' at it's peak intensity near the islands.
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2109. LargoFl
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Time: 21:08:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5333N 65.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 624.1 mb (~ 18.43 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,107 meters (~ 13,474 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.8 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 55° at 33 knots (From the NE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 3.9°C (~ 39.0°F)
Dew Pt: -3.2°C (~ 26.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)

And it's still pretty far from center.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7902

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.