Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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2207. atl134
Quoting LargoFl:
.what IS the weather where YOU live?..why arent YOU posting YOUR warnings from YOUR area?


Salt Lake City, Utah.
We're currently under a severe clear warning. It's an important issue for any lame movie vampires in the area that want to avoid sparkling.
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I just wrote a very brief blog entry on all the Atlantic activity... I won't be here this weekend so I put my thoughts for the next couple days in it.

I hope you read it.
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2204. Patrap
Check the FRONTS and MSLP boxes

91L Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Link


Last 3 frames, new convective burst over the COC really intense very cold tops.


Nasty looking.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting sar2401:


Yes, indeed, I remember those antediluvian days well. Sitting there with my Hallicrafters SX-71, listening to the marine bands and hourly updates out of Miami, as well as ship reports coming in. It's nice to be able to see everythig in real time but I kind of miss the challenge of trying to place the COC on the map and tracking it with yarn attached to push pins. There was no such thing as models back then (1960) and knowing much beyond 12 hours was just a guess. Now we have such information overload that everyone can see something different in the same model runs and satellite photos and argue about it for hours or days on end. I guess it's what we call progress. :)


My years of experience with hurricanes boils down to this. Just give me 2 days notice to figure out which side of the storm I'm going to be in and I'll plan accordingly.
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One person's blessing may be another one's misfortune. Just noting on the potential future tracks of both Ernesto and 91L if it develops that Dr. M. noted that the mid-West really needed a nice wet storm to wash ashore along the Northern Gulf coast and move up into the mid-section of the US for some badly needed drought relief. Don't know if either of these two systems will provide that in the long-term but I noted when he made the comment that we also did not need a major hurricane impacting the coast either.

It's going to be a long 5-10 days regardless of the outcome.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Agreed.


What about this one?

Needs to strengthen that circulation, if there's one under there (seems to be). This could definitely become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before landfall in Florida.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
Perfect timing?

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2198. ncstorm
From CrownWeather

As for a track, I think the track guidance such as the BAM models are incorrect in bringing 91L into the Gulf of Mexico. I think instead that we will see a general northwestward track and for this system to scrape along the east coast of Florida on Saturday from about Port St. Lucie to Daytona Beach. After that, it seems plausible that the upper level winds should take 91L inland into the Carolinas by Sunday into Monday.
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2197. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/91L
MARK
24.64W/77.58W
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Based on the way things have gone so far this year...Levi might be well on his way to going the way of StormW. ;D

This comment is inappropriate.
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e: 21:31:00Z
Coordinates: 14.65N 64.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,566 meters (~ 5,138 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.9 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 62° at 27 knots (From the ENE at ~ 31.0 mph)
Air Temp: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Dew Pt: 9.2°C (~ 48.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
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2193. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL EDMUNDS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWDLE...OR 25 MILES WEST OF
IPSWICH...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROSCOE AND LOYALTON AROUND 440 PM CDT...

THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 232 AND 253.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 4553 9921 4527 9922 4529 9962 4545 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 258DEG 28KT 4538 9951


DORN
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Quoting DataNerd:



Agreed.


What about this one?
That is not a tropical storm.A disturbance trying to get it's act together.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obvious tropical storm in obvious.

Looks better organized that Ernesto to me honestly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2189. Patrap
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2188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
13.74N/64.44W


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2187. Levi32
Quoting floridaboy14:
Levi im just curious. in 2007 hurricane felix was a category 4 hurricane in the carribean with 150mph with a pressure of 956mb. Usually a strong cat 4 has a pressure of 925-935mb. Do you know why Felix's pressure was so low?


Felix was a very small storm and had an unusually tight pressure gradient around it, thus Cat 4-5 winds occurred despite the somewhat higher pressure than normal for a tropical cyclone of that strength.
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2186. BCastro
Happy August of 2012 everyone!

A month without any activity and these show up/

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obvious tropical storm in obvious.




Agreed.


What about this one?
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon is about to enter Ernesto's CDO -- if you could even really call it that.

They're reporting TD winds...
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Quoting Levi32:


No it is not open on the GFS. The analysis is fine.

18z GFS Initialization 10m wind:



That's 18z initialization. The picture I posted was the forecast for 18z by the 12z GFS.
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Link


91L Looking very very impressive on visible sat.

Might be declared tonight if it keeps this up.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Obvious tropical storm in obvious.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
2179. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
BANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR
IS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING
THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
COULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN
A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN
THIS CASE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.9N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 21.0N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting Levi32:


It looks exactly like that. The only exception is the central pressure, which is not resolved well on the GFS 35km grid. That is pretty much a standard analysis by a global model for any tropical cyclone.
Levi im just curious. in 2007 hurricane felix was a category 4 hurricane in the carribean with 150mph with a pressure of 956mb. Usually a strong cat 4 has a pressure of 925-935mb. Do you know why Felix's pressure was so low?
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Levi, would 91L have an influence of weakening some the ridge?
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2176. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


We did pretty good in those days, Pat. Here was mine for Hazel in 1954. I "nailed" that one.




My pop went through Hazel along with millions of others.
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Quoting Grothar:


We did pretty good in those days, Pat. Here was mine for Hazel in 1954. I "nailed" that one.






Are those stone arrowheads on those arrows, Grothar? :)
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2174. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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2172. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks like an open wave with a weak low.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ernesto is not a weak open low like the GFS is portraying.


No it is not open on the GFS. The analysis is fine.

Full-resolution 18z GFS Initialization 10m wind:

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GeorgiaStormz, you said I was overreacting by informing my folks in Florida. You said essentially 91L would be absolutely nothing to worry about. I thought you well might be right at the time. Not so much now. :)
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42 years ago today Hurricane Celia hit the South Tx Gulf Coast (Corpus Christi). It certainly was nasty, but not as nasty as some.
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2169. sar2401
I'd like to see how well 91L does overnight before wishcasting it into something it's not. It appears to be a typical Bahamas low that always form this time of year in the Islands. If it can maintain its strength and become better organized overnight, then I'll start paying closer attention.
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DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO DROP
POSSIBLE 1 OF 2 DEGREES TONIGHT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE MID 70S. IN ADDITION...TEMPS AND HEAT
INDEX VALUE WILL APPROACH 100F BY 11 AM SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CLOUDS THEN CONVECTION WILL DISTURB DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE THIS EVENING WITH THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. THE SURFACE
FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER BAHAMAS
WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AND APPROACH NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER FLORIDA BUT THE PENINSULA WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY WITH
SURFACE FEATURE REMAINING AN INVERTED TROUGH NEXT MONDAY FOR NOW.
GFS...ECMWF AND NHC KEEP EARNESTO WELL SOUTH 22N THROUGH NEXT 5
DAYS AND HPC KEEPS EARNEST SOUTH OF 23N THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS. FOR
NOW...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT OVER ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER FLOW
TO PUSH SOUTH TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AXIS MAY POOL OVER THE AREA...THIS WILL MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 7

New Orleans NWS discussion this PM
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Interesting path by the HH...



All about the zig-zags man
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So far it seems the HWRF and GFDL have a good handle on Ernesto.
i Have o agree its going to come very close or just south of jamaica near grand cayman and to the channel
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2165. LargoFl
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Quoting Pocamocca:
HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS


I still see the GFS bias with the NHC. Not sure what to make of that...



As far as track is concerned the GFS was on the money thus far, so thats probably why the bias.

Since about 18z Wednesday its sort of gone awry.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Interesting path by the HH...

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Link



Ernesto looking much better now then it did this morning, warmer water and lessening of shear/dry air really shows. The whole back half of the system is expanding really rapidly and the COC is getting much better organized.


Looks like a classic pre hurricane TS now, I expect them to find a pressure around 998 mb later today.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting Seflhurricane:
very likely we will have Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica Tonight and hurrican Watch for Grand Cayman , remember Folks the stronger ernesto gets it will feel the trof coming to the gulf coast
So far it seems the HWRF and GFDL have a good handle on Ernesto.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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Recon is about to enter Ernesto's CDO -- if you could even really call it that.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.