Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2257 - 2207

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

There are many things that are spam on this blog at times, but this is definitely not one of them.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, this thing is intense!



I posted a shot of this about 45 minutes ago, and it already got buried off the page!
I've been watching this line all day (I live in minneapolis) because my local met warned about it when it was on SPC's Day 3 Outlook...I'm just glad it popped out west in a sparsely populated area!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2254. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at the tops on those thunderstorms shooting up... Strengthening storm here:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2252. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What resolution are your graphics, Levi?


The GFS has a 27km grid resolution. The NCEP graphics do not plot wind barbs at every grid point, but I can.

Correction: 27km, forgot the 2010 upgrade to T574.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winds not impressive at all yet.


Rainrates are pretty low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2250. LargoFl
Quoting spathy:


Very odd storm movement over Fl today.
Its like outflows bumping into outflows an all directions.

Rocks in a pond?
.yes departing from the norm alright
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, this thing is intense!

and u would think that TWC would break in to talk about it. Guess wats on LIFEGUARD! SMH! tropics active and look whats on. one word WOW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2247. LargoFl
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
sorry to keep spamming, but this thing looks just gnarly on radar...





L6 68 dBZ 41,000 ft. 82 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 2.75 in. 19 knots W (270)
..wow bad storm there alright
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BCastro:
Best keep an eye on this as well:

It's quite possible we have Tropical Depression 6 at 11 PM tonight or 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2245. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21411
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is a huge hook

No kidding. Good chance of a tornado with that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2242. BDAwx
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I highly doubt that Ernesto will weaken considerably to the point that both the ECMWF and GFS depict, thus constituting to the more westward track in response to zonal shallow-layer steering. Personally I find steady strengthening more likely beyond 24 hours, with even quicker intensification thereafter pointing towards a slightly more poleward track. Currently I'm south of the GFDL solution, but north of the official track; right around the 18z TVCN solution basically.


That sounds reasonable. :) I personally would disagree with the gfs and ecmwf solutions for the same reason. Although I would expect Ernesto to only very slightly strengthen- at least in the short term- because of the dry air out ahead of it and it's rather fast pace. The storm is relatively small too, so it could become ill defined at times; I'm buying into the idea that it could open up into a wave, but it shouldn't weaken in terms of wind speed because of the pressure gradient in that region. However that scenario is looking less likely. When it gets in the west Caribbean I would give it a very high chance - near 70% for rapid or explosive intensification to a major hurricane IF the wind shear is favorable. The tchp in the west caribbean is pretty impressive, and the air seems to be more moist there, even if Ernesto disorganized to a tropical wave in the central Caribbean I would still expect a hurricane under these conditions. And yes, I agree on this more poleward track for a stronger character.

It seems that the windward islands fared fairly well. Although, I haven't heard much about them. I hope that is the case for them and for those in Ernesto's path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


We can do that too...

GFS 12z 6-hour 10m wind forecast valid 18z:

What resolution are your graphics, Levi?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
91L to be red circled with 70-80% chance of development if not classified later this evening or tonight if all trending continues I think. As I stated earlier this particular disturbance has held together remarkably well over the last two nights. Yesterday big storms caused by daytime heating over Cuba did dissipate, the rest did not dissipate much at all. With better organization today, I would be surprised to see 91L weaken greatly overnight. Any HH flights scheduled for 91L?

Next TWO -
90L: 80%
91L: 60%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2238. Levi32
Quoting Articuno:
Levi how good are the conditions in front of 90L (african wave I think)


I haven't really looked. It's pretty dry out there though. I always basically ignore the irrelevant systems out in the middle of nowhere if there is another close to land that deserves full attention. We will have weeks to deal with whatever is near Africa right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, this thing is intense!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


We can do that too...

GFS 12z 6-hour 10m wind forecast valid 18z:



Well I stand corrected on the closed circulation part. I don't have access to see maps like you just posted. However, it's difficult to deny that the GFS is underestimating strength.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's 18z initialization. The picture I posted was the forecast for 18z by the 12z GFS.


The graphics on the NCEP website are not at the full (27km) resolution of the GFS. If I remember correctly they are at about 75km.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On their way to the circulation...


214100 1412N 06427W 8436 01554 0084 +181 +099 078030 032 031 000 00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
sorry to keep spamming, but this thing looks just gnarly on radar...





L6 68 dBZ 41,000 ft. 82 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 2.75 in. 19 knots W (270)


That is a huge hook
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91L to be red circled with 70-80% chance of development if not classified later this evening or tonight if all trending continues I think. As I stated earlier this particular disturbance has held together remarkably well over the last two nights. Yesterday big storms caused by daytime heating over Cuba did dissipate, the rest did not dissipate much at all. With better organization today, I would be surprised to see 91L weaken greatly overnight. Any HH flights scheduled for 91L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
sorry to keep spamming, but this thing looks just gnarly on radar...





L6 68 dBZ 41,000 ft. 82 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 2.75 in. 19 knots W (270)

There are many things that are spam on this blog at times, but this is definitely not one of them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Has an EPAC hurricane ever hit Cali? I don't think so.


A couple of TS, I Think like in '38 or '39 and one in the 70's came up into the mountains and desert of SW California,Kathleen I think was her name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi how good are the conditions in front of 90L (african wave I think)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds not impressive at all yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Link


Last 3 frames, new convective burst over the COC really intense very cold tops.


Nasty looking.
bets.it.nasty.right.there..fisherman?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i Have o agree its going to come very close or just south of jamaica near grand cayman and to the channel

so what time do you think it should impact me btw I am on Grand Cayman Island
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BCastro:
Best keep an eye on this as well:




We were thinking they may make that a TD later tonight. Looks very good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2222. BCastro
Best keep an eye on this as well:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2221. Thrawst
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Why cant we talk about a more impressive feature?
Like 90L?


Because 91L is over me. I am royalty. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2220. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's 18z initialization. The picture I posted was the forecast for 18z by the 12z GFS.


We can do that too...

GFS 12z 6-hour 10m wind forecast valid 18z:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Why cant we talk about a more impressive feature?
Like 90L?


90L will almost certainly be declared later. Classic structure of a cape verde ts.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Still to early to tell, but these are the latest.

*eyes the GA path* Before I get all exited about that one, what's the reliability of the LBAR model? I understand that it is partly based on an idealized circulation data set thingy unlike the others? (Still trying to understand the differences/nuances between the model runs.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2216. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:

This comment is inappropriate.
Agree, hit ignore instead of quoting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sorry to keep spamming, but this thing looks just gnarly on radar...





L6 68 dBZ 41,000 ft. 82 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 2.75 in. 19 knots W (270)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
HH in their now?.

Yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This has got to be a TD by 11 o clock advisory IMO. and should be between 90 to 100% at the next TWO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2210. LargoFl
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
518 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 514 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED OVER NORTHERN
STAFFORD COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF STAFFORD...AND WAS MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUBY...
RURAL NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY
RURAL SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3861 7759 3860 7736 3845 7741 3847 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 191DEG 3KT 3854 7748



BAJ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Link


91L Looking very very impressive on visible sat.

Might be declared tonight if it keeps this up.

Why cant we talk about a more impressive feature?
Like 90L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2207. atl134
Quoting LargoFl:
.what IS the weather where YOU live?..why arent YOU posting YOUR warnings from YOUR area?


Salt Lake City, Utah.
We're currently under a severe clear warning. It's an important issue for any lame movie vampires in the area that want to avoid sparkling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2257 - 2207

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
67 °F
Mostly Cloudy