Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Almost have all three of our storms on the map 91L, 90L, and ernesto
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2355. 19N81W
didnt masters say shear would weaken today?
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2354. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
As I mentioned during the wee hours this am, an RI event, as the term is generally used, is a rapid intensification that was/is unexpected pursuant to the official forecast/advisories (even though perhaps an isolated intensity model or two may suggest the possibility but it is not considered in the official forecast). However, many of the discussions on past systems over the years have suggested that the the storm "has the potential to develop into a major hurricane" or something to that effect. The critical issue, if not in the official forecast which has huge implications for the public, is typically a jump from tropical storm to hurricane status, or, jump from minimal hurricane status to major on the eve of landfall with little lead time for affected populations.
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That may be enough deep convection over the center to call it a CDO now.

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2351. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
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2349. robj144
Quoting amd:


Typically shear is measured by the winds at 850 mb (roughly 5000 feet above the surface) subtracted by the winds at 250 mb (roughly 35000 feet above the surface).

For instance, if winds are out of the east at 10 knots at both 850 mb and 250 mb, there is no calculated shear between these two regions. But if there is 30 knots out the east at 850 mb, and calm winds at 250 mb, there would be 30 knots of upper level westerly shear.

It is important to note that this calculation is just at 2 points in the atmosphere, and may not represent the full shear profile.


It's the difference of wind velocities right? Direction matters...
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2348. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. It might be even, but it's not weaker and certainly not getting weaker.


It definitely looks better organized , even if the pressure doesn't say so.
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Gfs has a struggling system where the nhc says it should be a hurricane. I'm not buying ghis run either
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Quoting Levi32:
Well the recon isn't going back so they must have thought it was close enough. 10kt winds and 1004mb pressure isn't stronger than last night's 1002mb measurement. Next pass will be better.
notice some reds developing closer to the center. Do you think the NHC might bump up the wind speeds to 60mph if RECON find a lower pressure?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
2345. GBguy88
Quoting CybrTeddy:
72mph SFMR winds, but they are defiantly contaminated by rainrates.


I hate to be one of those guys, but for the record, defiantly and definitely are two very different words.
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Looks like storm is tilted, flight level center different than surface.
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2343. Patrap
Ernesto is going to continue to cruise along, chugging, not unlike a Lawnmower, that's a tad cranky, but when it get's West a Tad, like past Jamaica, thing's could rev up and most likely will.

Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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So far Recon has found...
1004 MB - They missed the center.
and consistent 45 mph on the NW side.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Post 2331 is that from the latest GFS?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2340. LargoFl
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking a various maps, charts, etc. It appears 91L may turn out to be as difficult as Debbie to forecast.Looks like a lot of different spins south and east of Fl.
..I just hope it doesnt come in to florida..then stall like debby did
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
72mph SFMR winds, but they are defiantly contaminated by rainrates.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
2338. amd
Quoting CothranRoss:
I have a question... I know what shear is, but how is it measured? What exactly does it mean when you have "30 knots" of shear?


Typically shear is measured by the winds at 850 mb (roughly 5000 feet above the surface) subtracted by the winds at 250 mb (roughly 35000 feet above the surface).

For instance, if winds are out of the east at 10 knots at both 850 mb and 250 mb, there is no calculated shear between these two regions. But if there is 30 knots out the east at 850 mb, and calm winds at 250 mb, there would be 30 knots of upper level westerly shear.

It is important to note that this calculation is just at 2 points in the atmosphere, and may not represent the full shear profile.
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Quoting Levi32:
Well the recon isn't going back so they must have thought it was close enough. 10kt winds and 1004mb pressure isn't stronger than last night's 1002mb measurement.


Lol. It might be even, but it's not weaker and certainly not getting weaker.
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I think we will see a bump up to 60 mph.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2335. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Looking a various maps, charts, etc. It appears 91L may turn out to be as difficult as Debbie to forecast.Looks like a lot of different spins south and east of Fl.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Patience everyone patience they will get there.


Beware the fury of a patient man.

JOHN DRYDEN, Absalom and Achitophel
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2332. LargoFl
Quoting Matt1989:
wishcasting at it's finest
..the nam also said it would miss florida..we shall see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
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Haikui In the WPAC. If this was in the Atlantic, it would just be a 30% circle. I dont even think It's organized enough to be called a subtropical storm. the convection is nowhere near the center.
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21:55:00Z 13.600N 64.017W 842.3 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,549 meters
(~ 5,082 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 136° at 20 knots
(From the SE at ~ 23.0 mph) 14.1°C
(~ 57.4°F) 9.4°C
(~ 48.9°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 62 knots
(~ 71.3 mph) 64 mm/hr
(~ 2.52 in/hr) 40.0 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Tropical Storm

This one's not flagged Link
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nice CDO forming now.

look at that fire up in the middle of the strom! amazing!
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
What is theb hightest winds in Ernesto? Y dont we have TD 6 from the low off africa?



no TD 6
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
2326. Levi32
Well the recon isn't going back so they must have thought it was close enough. 10kt winds and 1004mb pressure isn't stronger than last night's 1002mb measurement. Next pass will be better.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It looks like they haven't got that far yet, if you look at the image on post 2306 it appears they are well west of the last fix.

Thanks making sure! I see it now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
65 knot surface winds found. Probably contaminated.
It is; check the rain rate.

Nothing much in this data set either. No true west winds, and no pressure beneath 1004mb.
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According to NWS Norman, Oklahoma City has tied its all-time record high temperature of 113 degrees. OKC has reached at least 112 just eleven times since recordkeeping began; three times last year, and three more this year (in fact, this month). Tomorrow's high is expected to be slightly cooler--109 degrees--and the long-term forecast calls for temps generally around 100 for the next week or so, so absent another big heat push (always a possibility) this should be the hottest day of the year there.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
65 knot surface winds found. Probably contaminated.
What is theb hightest winds in Ernesto? Y dont we have TD 6 from the low off africa?
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2321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nice CDO forming now.

so it shall begin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Patience everyone patience they will get there.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
MIMIC on Ernesto is kinda fun to watch, especially the last few frames.

MIMIC Ernesto
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Nice CDO forming now.


Much better than what it was this morning...
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2317. Patrap
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2316. robj144
Quoting Patrap:

Cross section of a hurricane.



What a nice looking heat engine.
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60-65 knot surface winds found. Rain contaminated it looks like.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
2314. Patrap
Uploaded by airboyd on Sep 19, 2010
http://airboyd.tv

Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'.

The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'.

'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.



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Quoting Articuno:

Dafudge they doin?
Have they even talked about Ernesto since you started watching?
Barely!! Now Pyros is on! This is really sad. Severe weather breaking out and tropics active! WOW what a way to go TWC for not being on for this type of time.SMH!!!!!!!!
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Have they checked the ne quadrant??
It looks like they haven't got that far yet, if you look at the image on post 2306 it appears they are well west of the last fix.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Nice CDO forming now.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They missed it.
what is the strongest winds in Ernesto? Y dont we have TD 6 from that Low off of Africa?
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2309. Patrap
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My concern, a body of water with an incredible amount of available energy,combined with one or two vortices.What will be the result?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They either missed the circulation to the east, or it opened up, no?


Don't think they reached the center yet, next batch of data.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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