Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Some greens showing up on the Funktop representing very cold cloud tops around the CDO.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 90L and 91L be at 8PM

90L
A.50%
B.60%
C.70%
D.80%
E.90%
F.TD
Q 91L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%
E.70%
I will say C and B


F and C
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2455. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22254
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


Due to recent Government funding restrictions, NHC only has enough people to track one major system at a time. Everything that is not Ernesto has to stay an Invest until TS Ernesto goes away. It's not you time yet. By the time they do have time to acknowledge Florence it may be Hurricane Florence; but it is what it is. If it where an immediate threat to land, they would designate at least one person to acknowledge that it exists.


Thats a load of bull lol
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Ernesto continues to look better every frame:

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Quoting hydrus:
basically week to a week and half
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2451. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Quoting gator23:


this is not true


Of course, it's not and everyone here knows that.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Dry air is preventing convection to fire to the north of 90L. still looks well organized and has a defined center...
no.doubt.not.a.tropical.storm...f..for.bahama.sys tem
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Quoting Levi32:
The near-hurricane force SFMR reading came during a massive thunderstorm (notice the rainfall spike). It could have been a gust instead of a legitimate sustained-wind reading.

Well now we know that the thunderstorms near Ernesto's center are quite strong.
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2446. gator23
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
If Invest 91L takes a more westward path (towards Texas), and Ernesto takes a more northwestward path (towards TX/LA), could there be a Fujiwhara interaction?

Yes but that wont happen.
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Quoting Levi32:
The near-hurricane force SFMR reading came during a massive thunderstorm (notice the rainfall spike). It could have been a gust instead of a legitimate sustained-wind reading.

ernesto likely a 55-60 mph ts???
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I miss ol Nash Roberts......

Link
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2443. gator23
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


Due to recent Government funding restrictions, NHC only has enough people to track one major system at a time. Everything that is not Ernesto has to stay an Invest until TS Ernesto goes away. It's not you time yet. By the time they do have time to acknowledge Florence it may be Hurricane Florence; but it is what it is. If it where an immediate threat to land, they would designate at least one person to acknowledge that it exists.


this is not true
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If Invest 91L takes a more westward path (towards Texas), and Ernesto takes a more northwestward path (towards TX/LA), could there be a Fujiwhara interaction?
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Quoting Pocamocca:
2421:

We may not have 70mph, but he's getting his act together.

Newest image out 10 mins ago...

click for animation

Now, that is what a tropical storm is supposed to look like!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 90L and 91L be at 8PM

90L
A.50%
B.60%
C.70%
D.80%
E.90%
F.TD
Q 91L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%
E.70%
I will say C and B


E and C
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


They are not marked as contaminated


You don't have 20mph flight level winds with 70mph surface winds.

Edit: Or as Levi just pointed out, it could have been a gust.
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2438. Levi32
The near-hurricane force SFMR reading came during a massive thunderstorm (notice the rainfall spike). It could have been a downburst gust instead of a legitimate sustained-wind reading.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OMG
somebody on the Internet

typed something

that was

WRONG

OMG
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so far ernesto is likely a 55-60 Mph TS based on recon thus far but intense convection is exploding over the center
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2435. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
605 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ049>052-055-056-060-062-065-GMZ830-032315-
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-S ARASOTA-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
605 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING NEAR
THESE STORMS.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Quoting MississippiWx:


Those are bogus...contaminated by rain.


They are not marked as contaminated
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One week's time on the 18z GFS:

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Q. what will 90L and 91L be at 8PM

90L
A.50%
B.60%
C.70%
D.80%
E.90%
F.TD
Q 91L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%
E.70%
I will say C and B
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4981
Be back later.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is going to investigate the NE quadrant before heading back towards the center.


I was away from my desk, what are they seeing so far anything interesting?
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Time: 21:56:30Z
Coordinates: 13.55N 63.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.1 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,554 meters (~ 5,098 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.1 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 153° at 19 knots (From the SSE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 15.3°C (~ 59.5°F)
Dew Pt: 8.4°C (~ 47.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 24 mm/hr (~ 0.94 in/hr)

AND

Time: 21:55:30Z
Coordinates: 13.5833N 64.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,549 meters (~ 5,082 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.9 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 165° at 15 knots (From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Dew Pt: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 54 mm/hr (~ 2.13 in/h



Do we have 70 mph ernesto?



nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
2427. TXCWC
Quoting Pocamocca:
GFS 18Z 156 hours in...

click to enlarge


Once again showing a fairly weak system - not any stronger than currently is now - hard to believe at this point - NHC continues to disagree as well - weaker = Mexico / stronger = further EAST/North track
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Time: 21:56:30Z
Coordinates: 13.55N 63.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.1 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,554 meters (~ 5,098 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.1 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 153° at 19 knots (From the SSE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 15.3°C (~ 59.5°F)
Dew Pt: 8.4°C (~ 47.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 24 mm/hr (~ 0.94 in/hr)

AND

Time: 21:55:30Z
Coordinates: 13.5833N 64.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,549 meters (~ 5,082 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.9 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 165° at 15 knots (From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Dew Pt: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 54 mm/hr (~ 2.13 in/h



Do we have 70 mph ernesto?


Those are bogus...contaminated by rain.
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when is the next atcf update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
When will it get named? All of us should yell at the NHC!


Due to recent Government funding restrictions, NHC only has enough people to track one major system at a time. Everything that is not Ernesto has to stay an Invest until TS Ernesto goes away. It's not you time yet. By the time they do have time to acknowledge Florence it may be Hurricane Florence; but it is what it is. If it where an immediate threat to land, they would designate at least one person to acknowledge that it exists.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2422. robj144
Quoting amd:


Of course. Hence why there is 20 knots of westerly shear when winds at 850 mb are out of the east at 25 knots, but are only 5 knots out of the east at 250 mb.

In a more extreme example, if you have westerly winds of 30 knots at 250 mb and easterly winds of 20 knots at 850 mb, then the westerly shear is 50 knots.



How do you get the overall direction for the shear? In your first example, both winds were to the east, but the shear was to the west. Where did that come from? A relative velocity type subtraction, gives inconsistent directions in your two examples.

Also, does the direction of overall shear matter? Is 50 mph to the east have a different affect on a storm than 50 mph to the west?

Thanks.
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Time: 21:56:30Z
Coordinates: 13.55N 63.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.1 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,554 meters (~ 5,098 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.1 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 153 at 19 knots (From the SSE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 15.3C (~ 59.5F)
Dew Pt: 8.4C (~ 47.1F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 24 mm/hr (~ 0.94 in/hr)

AND

Time: 21:55:30Z
Coordinates: 13.5833N 64.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,549 meters (~ 5,082 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.9 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 165 at 15 knots (From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.5C (~ 58.1F)
Dew Pt: 9.0C (~ 48.2F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 54 mm/hr (~ 2.13 in/h



Do we have 70 mph ernesto?
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I think the GFS is still too far south. i dont think ernesto will be in the BOC but the Western Gulf in general anywhere from mexico to lousiana
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2419. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22254
2418. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 511 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
WEST OF CHATOM...OR NEAR STATE LINE MISSISSIPPI...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATE LINE... FRUITDALE...

LAT...LON 3142 8826 3126 8847 3141 8857 3152 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 310DEG 8KT 3141 8843
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's an anticyclone in the NW Caribbean? Hope it's not moving southwest...


No, that's the upper level low/TUTT backing away to the SW.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The NHC mentions RI frequently in it's discussions, not in it's advisories, by name(rapid intensification). Do I have to pull up old discussions from dozens of storms in the past to prove my point?


No.....You may well be correct on that...... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9372
I meant upper level low..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
2413. hydrus
Quoting bigwes6844:
MJO should be here in a week right?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22254
2412. Patrap
TFP's are active,,

Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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2410. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


wait I thought the Eastern Caribbean was the deadzone :P
not today/tonight
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I will agree to that if I see the eastern side get some more convection. I think all this will be is Ernesto making it to 60 MPH.


Yeah, Beryl had that issue. Probably among the reasons why it wasn't upgraded to a hurricane.
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2407. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22254

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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