Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:


Dats my Tally Ho, ping, dat middle,,etc,etc'

: )



Trying to form a Low a bit further south?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm most interested in the area just poleward of the circulation, that's where they found the strongest winds in past Recon missions.



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
its surviving the "deadly" eastern carribean :O
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Ernesto is actually a pretty good looking system for the first time in his life now. That bodes well for his future endeavors, but not so well for those in his way.

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18z GFS, 348 hours... Assuming 90L becomes Florence, there's Gordon, Helene, and Isaac:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7629
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.74N/64.44W


Does "Flag Flag" mean RI is twice as likely to be occurring?
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The Hurricane hunters needs investigate ernesto more often, because every time they go ernesto intensifies
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2499. Levi32
12z UKMET ensembles seem to have the right idea in general, though I don't agree with the curious NW burst towards Hispaniola during the next 48 hours:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
2498. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36983
2497. Patrap
Foul Language in any form is Strictly Verboten as per the Terms Of Service.

:O
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Quoting DataNerd:
Link


I see an Eye/CDO. Its under that really cold top.



hopefully.it.stays.south.of.jamaica..it.will.be.a .hurricane.soon..reminds.me.of.gilbert.but.its.ali ttle.south.of.where.he.was
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31519
If it go to Hurricane soon it will go N or NE by time it get the W Caribbean it will be a Cat 2 or Cat 3
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2493. Relix
So much for sinking air... heh
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2491. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36983
2490. yqt1001




What a nice upper end tropical storm CDO. Dvorak should come back with 55kts or so. Of course NHC will go with what recon finds.
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2489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.74N/64.44W


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Is this from Ernesto? Looks like it could be to me.

Link
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Hydrus those images are HUGE ... might want to link instead
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Quoting mobileshadow:


Don't let the FL wishcasters hear you say that or they will be calling you a troll and poofing you :)


actually to me it looks like pocca was only commenting on what the gfs shows, not implying anything
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7395
2485. LargoFl
.......................GFS at 5 days out
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36983
2484. gator23
Quoting mobileshadow:


Don't let the FL wishcasters hear you say that or they will be calling you a troll and poofing you :)

I dont see how being prepared is wishicasting. A stonger storm would shoot the gap and a weaker storm wouldnt.
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2483. Patrap
Maybe if we can go back to 1969 and get a few Humpback Whales?..

would that help?

...we gonna need a Big Puter and someone to input those Light Speed calc's
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Let them make it back close to that bursting convection.
I'm most interested in the area just poleward of the circulation, that's where they found the strongest winds in past Recon missions.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Link


I see an Eye/CDO. Its under that really cold top.



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if recon can hang on for a few hours those winds will pick up that convection is impressive the best thus far
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some 40kt flight-level winds coming in right now, but dassit.


222800 1426N 06318W 8435 01567 0104 167 095 126039 041 032 002 00

The next pass will be very telling IMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31519
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some 40kt+ flight-level winds coming in right now, but dassit.


222800 1426N 06318W 8435 01567 0104 +167 +095 126039 041 032 002 00


Let them make it back close to that bursting convection.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I have had enough of seeing the satellite images of 90L. It's clearly more than sufficiently organized for it to be classified TD 6. I don't know what is keeping NHC from designating it.


I can think of several reasons...

1. There doesn't appear to be a ton of model support for the system.
2. Reading comprehension. This is the relevant part of the TWO statement: "ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO." So, they may be waiting to see if it lives past the dry air and cool waters. We all know that many a wave have died that way.
3. What is the rush? I see lots of people whining that it should be named but no empirical data to prove that it should be?
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Some 40kt+ flight-level winds coming in right now, but dassit.


222800 1426N 06318W 8435 01567 0104 +167 +095 126039 041 032 002 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Thats a load of bull lol
It's not bull it's a joke.
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Quoting Levi32:
The near-hurricane force SFMR reading came during a massive thunderstorm (notice the rainfall spike). It could have been a downburst gust instead of a legitimate sustained-wind reading.

Levi would you say that Ernesto has been stregthining today?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
2468. LargoFl
AMZ101-040830-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
523 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012


.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL LIFT N THROUGH
MON. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS NE TO NEAR
31N76W. A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH NEAR 25N79W.
THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS TSTMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY W AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36983
Quoting Pocamocca:
All in all, so far nothing new with the southern trending GFS....

Looks to be favoring the BOC and in and around Veracruz, Mexico for landfall.


Don't let the FL wishcasters hear you say that or they will be calling you a troll and poofing you :)
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Its amazing we have Ernesto and 2 invests with potential WITHOUT the MJO, imagine when we get the MJO in a week
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


wait I thought the Eastern Caribbean was the deadzone :P

true but that is only for weak system said someone


lol
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2462. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
Ole Ernie has found his groove. Last vis shot before sunset:

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Quoting gator23:

Yes but that wont happen.


Why not? What is the science behind the Fujiwhara effect?
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I haven't seen any data thus far that would support Ernesto being a 40kt cyclone; obviously they have yet to investigate the northern semicircle so there's still some waiting to do.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Some greens showing up on the Funktop representing very cold cloud tops around the CDO.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.