Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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HH...#epicfail
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
anyone know where to find and/or have on hand the most recent DVORAK estimates for Ernesto? My quick google search only seems to pull up numbers for Ernesto circa 2006.

Thanks XD

My bad, just needed to refresh - Thanks Taz
#2157
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1001.4mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 4.0

Center Temp : -66.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2604. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I'm going off to the family vacation tomorrow with me and hubby and the Children.So won't get much info on the tropics.


Have fun Wash!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2603. Levi32
If Ernesto does manage to strengthen significantly in the face of the eastern Caribbean, he can likely thank the fact that there are no surface or mid-level troughs anywhere in Ernesto's vicinity, and thus his envelope of tropical moisture is not being strung out and elongated like so many sheared Caribbean systems often have. In other words, Ernesto's moisture field is remaining compact and not being torn apart, allowing the circulation to work away at forcing that moist air to rise. So far today, it's working.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
recon pretty much out of ernesto....guess they are going home
Intensity might not change afterall
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He is defying expectations. the trade winds SHOULD have kept him in check until the W.carribean but hey its the tropics and anything can happen
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting DataNerd:



They cancel the flight meant for this morning?
The 06z flight was canceled to make up for this later flight.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Headed home for sure. Really bad timing for a malfunction in equipment. How annoying.
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Well I'm going off to the family vacation tomorrow with me and hubby and the Children.So won't get much info on the tropics.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know why they did that.

* Scratches head.



They cancel the flight meant for this morning?
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2596. Patrap
HH URNT15 High-Density Observations (HDOB) Google LIVE map Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting washingtonian115:
I need proof to back that up.



Saw it in one of the Vortex messages.

Might have been erroneous.


Considering I am not seeing winds high enough to support it, probably erroneous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would have a good lol if i go to bed and wake up to a nice storm with an eye tomorrow...

before i start worrying about who it would hit...
So much excitement, i dont want to go to sleep tonight..
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Ernesto is going to give us a hell of a time one late monday early tues


Hell that's encouraging news, J/K last thing we need now though!!
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Yup, they're headed on a steady NW route.

230100 1639N 06406W 6980 03194 0121 +090 +040 112034 034 030 001 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I don't know why they did that.

* Scratches head.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32029
2590. emguy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now back to Ernesto's Recon mission; looks like they've decided to ascend. Interesting.


225100 1552N 06339W 6973 03199 0115 +093 +048 120031 033 032 000 00


They must have run into some pretty good turbulance on the first pass. They usually ascend in preps for a second pass after a wild ride (or indications there will be a wild ride).
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CIMSS ADT confirms a CDO.
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2588. Patrap
Raised Spock Eyebrow,

Interesting



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting stormpetrol:


Ernesto has grown quite a bit in the last 12 hours.

Ernesto is going to give us a hell of a time one late monday early tues
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1001.4mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 4.0

Center Temp : -66.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

The increase in the Raw T#s is a direct response to the development of Ernesto's CDO. Assuming Ernesto is able to maintain it, expect the other T#s to rise in tandem with Ernesto's strengthening.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
2585. Patrap
URNT15 - High-Density Observations (HDOB)

Mission
Number Agency Time Lowest Extrapolated
Surface Pressure Highest
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.) Highest SFMR Peak
(10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind Map
03 Air Force 08/03 22:41:30Z 1003.5mb (~29.63 inHg) 42kts (~48.3mph) 62kts (~71.3mph)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ugh, I'm going to be angry if they have to cancel the flight.

Don't see why they would. Strange.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32029
Ernesto has definetly gotten stronger. looks like a 60-65mph TS
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
2582. amd
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ugh, I'm going to be angry if they have to cancel the flight.


Just checked the recco observations on the nhc website and found this.

000
URNT11 KNHC 032235
97779 22344 60148 63308 15200 12038 17098 /2505
40830
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 05
SWS = 31 KTS
NE EXIT
;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Rapid intensification flag is on per recon
I need proof to back that up.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting hydrus:
This link shows 91L crossing Florida, intensifying, and hitting the northern gulf coast. Then a couple other developments. It is definitely worth a look...Link


Wow interesting we will have to watch that.
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2579. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


never never never go by the book

your best weapon is your brain
use common sense
imagination
and good judgement
Absolutely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Ernesto has grown quite a bit in the last 12 hours.
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Rapid intensification flag is on per recon
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They're moving towards northwest though.


Ugh, I'm going to be angry if they have to cancel the flight.
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2575. emguy
Will be interesting to see the wind speeds and pressure toward the end of the Hurricane Hunter Mission. For now, I'm not surprised that the wind speeds are up and/or the pressure is down at this moment, as these usually lag the development of intense thunderstorms by a couple of hours.
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Well if 90L and 91L do form and the other 3 later on as well,
we would have 6 August storms.
O.o
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Might be anticipating a bumpy ride?
They're moving northwest though.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1001.4mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 4.0

Center Temp : -66.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
2571. Patrap
Quoting MississippiWx:


Might be anticipating a bumpy ride?


Maybe a Better route or they vectoring around the Worst Updrafts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
2570. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Yesterday: "Ernesto might open up into a wave"
Today:
Ernesto's Response: "WHO you callin' an open wave? Huh? That's it! I'll show you what this "Wave" is capable of!"

and Today: Ernesto is looking more and more intense and could be a significant hurricane down the road...

Moral of the Story: Don't mess with the wrong cyclone...


never never never go by the book

your best weapon is your brain
use common sense
imagination
and good judgement
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
2569. Patrap
Select a product to view decoded data:

Product Expanded Product Name
URNT12 Vortex Data Messages (VDM)
URNT15 High-Density Observations (HDOB)
UZNT13 Dropsonde Observations (DROP)
URNT11 Tropical Reconnaissance Code Observations (RECCO)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
2568. ncstorm
Quoting tropicfreak:


Bermuda is in for trouble if that verified.


there was actually 4 storms at the end of that run..one went up the east coast and three storms from Africa..Bermuda..oh boy!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now back to Ernesto's Recon mission; looks like they've decided to ascend. Interesting.


225100 1552N 06339W 6973 03199 0115 +093 +048 120031 033 032 000 00
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is going home...?


Might be anticipating a bumpy ride?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please pray/send blessings/good thoughts, etc....for the people of Oklahoma and their animals this is very bad. Thank you from my heart.

Preparing to evacuate if needed.

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2565. Patrap
Quoting Skyepony:
Wunder where that non-tasked mission that just took off is going so late in the day.


Is odd fer sure.

Maybe a transport of some sort.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting Skyepony:
Wunder where that non-tasked mission that just took off is going so late in the day.
Pretty sure they did it last night too.
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Recon is going home...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32029
2562. Skyepony (Mod)
Wunder where that non-tasked mission that just took off is going so late in the day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now back to Ernesto's Recon mission; looks like they've decided to ascend. Interesting.


225100 1552N 06339W 6973 03199 0115 +093 +048 120031 033 032 000 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2559. Patrap



Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
That tornado warned storm is still going, and it's in a more populated area now:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
540 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SPINK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 537 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR REDFIELD.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 537 PM CDT THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST AND 1
MILE SOUTH OF REDFIELD.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FRANKFORT...GLENDALE COLONY AND SPINK COLONY AROUND 555 PM CDT...
DOLAND AND TURTON AROUND 605 PM CDT...
HILLSIDE COLONY AROUND 610 PM CDT...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well...something has gone wrong with Recon's data.


Looks to be a training flight over Houston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.