Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 5307 - 5257

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

5307. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
Quoting hydrus:

Good morning Guys, and hydrus yes my favorite color is the green lol
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130
5305. MZT
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER

Heh. Rare to see Avila admit he's been outfoxed by a storm's development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

why do you guys keep quoteing jason hes not going too go a way if you keep doing that all your doing is feeding him and that what trolls like
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Notice the direction now! WNW


Heading of 285.


Linear extrapolation is the center of Belize.


Since I expect more and more curvature to the north through intensification, it's obviously going to be farther north than the current linear extrapolation.


NHC official track path is pretty good for now.

Just keep in mind their intensity forecasts usually suck beyond a few hours...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting biloxibob:
may need a cT scan,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here you can see how after the first convec blowup, you lose track of the center and are led the think it is in the center of the convection when it was out west all along, and the new convection blowup at the end most likely where the center really is.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
I think it's odd that the NHC keeps Ernesto at category one for two days I think once he's past Jamaica he will intensify very quickly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5299. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:44Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 29

14:45:00Z 15.633N 68.050W 842.7 mb

(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,592 meters
(~ 5,223 feet) 1012.6 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 120° at 48 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 55.2 mph) 16.7°C
(~ 62.1°F) 9.6°C
(~ 49.3°F) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 38.4 knots (~ 44.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 80.0%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations


Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic


At 14:35:30Z (first observation), the observation was 212 miles (341 km) to the SSW (205°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 14:45:00Z (last observation), the observation was 231 miles (372 km) to the SSE (148°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Stop and think these storms do tend to have a mind of their own and have defied the models and even the NHC at times.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I am really surprise to seen that the pressure has risen that much even if it has weaken some.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5296. 7544
Quoting biloxibob:
Indeed,a turn to the north has begun.


and wasnt expected this early in the game what surpise does ernesto have in store looks like hes tring to aviod the dry air and if he can stay north he just might could see a new cone as imo hes going to follow the far right of the cone
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
7% cat3 in 72hrs? Fairly high for such a storm..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
Quoting yqt1001:
Northern outflow is back.



Convection over center symmetrical.



Ernesto has handled the dry air very well!

Agreed!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
91L is doing good on Visible Loop
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I expect ernesto could start strengthen as soon as he passes 70W
70w or 75w is what i think as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Northern outflow is back.



Convection over center symmetrical.



Ernesto has handled the dry air very well!
thats what killed it today. notice the empty space north of the deep convection. once that fills up stegthining will begin again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5289. Gearsts
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i tell you before peolpe is going to be a tropical wave tonight!!
It wont be trust me on that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts


Those early cycle dynamics are quite interesting. They appear to be quite a bit further north than the other stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5287. hydrus
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i tell you before peolpe is going to be a tropical wave tonight!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since Avila does not have any reasoning for Ernesto's sudden drop in intensity, anyone care to speculate?

I'm thinking dry air that got sucked in due to the intense convention that developed last night, maybe someone has a better explanation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5284. LargoFl
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL FIRST
MOVE ASHORE THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
AND PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. REFER
TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
5283. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG OFF
MARK
14.03N/67.57W


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i tell you before peolpe is going to be a tropical wave tonight!!

It's NOT going to be a tropical wave Jason.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
5281. scott39
When a NHC forecaster really doesnt have a reason as to why ernesto "weakend"....its puts ??? in my head.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5280. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
5279. yqt1001
Northern outflow is back.



Convection over center symmetrical.



Ernesto has handled the dry air very well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I expect ernesto could start strengthen as soon as he passes 70W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5277. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sounds reasonable.

"I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."
reason for weakining is very dry stable air. have you seen the projected path? what a joke! it shows a bend back west yet ernesto is moving WNW EARLIER than expected yet they still have a southern track. just plain dumb..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so it would sees the coc is now under the convection with the new more westergly blowup, and was not really under the big CDO before..
Now it will begin to strengthen more
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That random westward turn messes the whole track up. Not to mention the fact that Ernesto is moving WNW.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
Maybe he's playing with us saying this is how i'm going to look when i'm in the western Caribbean.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting GTcooliebai:
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.
Intermediate Advisory will be written now at 2 and 8.
fisherman.off.the.south.banks.are.the.first.to.di ssapear
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
5268. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Notice the direction now! WNW
Indeed,a turn to the north has begun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CothranRoss:
I can't believe that Ernesto has winds of only 50mph when it looks so good on satellite.

The NHC is just as confused as we are.
"...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERNESTO WEAKER DESPITE THE WELL ORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION..."
" I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sounds reasonable.

"I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."
dont think it will weaken further looms to me that it needs to filter out the dry air and then the pressure should start to fall and winds respond
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5262. 7544
Quoting CothranRoss:
I can't believe that Ernesto has winds of only 50mph when it looks so good on satellite.


agreee but now its moving wnw rather than west hmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
5261. scott39
What problems did the HH plane have yesterday?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5260. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

..that sure is a spin on her now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
Quoting CothranRoss:
I can't believe that Ernesto has winds of only 50mph when it looks so good on satellite.
NHC could not believe it either but recon confirmed it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sounds reasonable.

"I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
5257. scott39
Ernesto weakened???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 5307 - 5257

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.