Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWO should be in in the next few minutes, how many will be posted and hopefully no crash.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Is Ernesto trying to define odds?.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17849
2704. LargoFl
Quoting RitaEvac:
..right over my house
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
bad feeling about invest 90L MAYBE HITTING THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK!!
I agree. South Florida to be exact.
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Maybe a One Two punch for Gulf
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Pretty colors!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, no. A renumber would occur in about 2 and a half hours; the ATCF updates for Ernesto, 90L, and 91L will occur in about an hour with new coordinates, winds, pressure, etc.



oh ok thanks
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:


Pressures are not dropping near 91L yet.




yes they are
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




thank you so if we get TD 6 from 90L it would be in 1hr?
Oh, no. A renumber would occur in about 2 and a half hours; the ATCF updates for Ernesto, 90L, and 91L will occur in about an hour with new coordinates, winds, pressure, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
It's going to be difficult to keep this one from becoming a TC as well.



Pressures are not dropping near 91L yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
Have experienced melting pages and a virus report numerous times in the past few days from here. Anti-virus system deals with it after the fact and all seems well with WU, but this has happened to me multiple times this week. Don't know if this is an issue others have had, just wanted to let others know.
I had to re-boot my system.It locked up and I couln't access the web at all.No clue what the source of the problem was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting superpete:


Going to be an interesting time for us on Monday & Tuesday, Storm?


I think so !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2691. scott39
Look at Ernesto showing off during Dmin! 91L will help reinforce the weakness in the ridge. Look for a track more to the N if Ernesto developes faster.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting stormpetrol:
Personally I think Ernesto is a 65-70mph storm very close to hurricane status!

I'm saying the samething too

if this continues it could be a 75MPH hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Why can't they be fish storms?


Was a total joke...lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Ernesto man.. WOW thats my reaction. If it can do this in the E.carribean, imagine the W.carribean and Gulf :O
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



possible 90l is gone from navy that normally means a renumber will be posted soon



2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
91L.INVEST
05L.ERNESTO

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST
12W.HAIKUI
11W.DAMREY
10W.SAOLA

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere



Still showing it on my navy page, but like I said, microwave imagery shows a td as far as I am concerned.



Back to Ernesto
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In about 1 hour.




thank you so if we get TD 6 from 90L it would be in 1hr?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
IF... Ernesto violates the John Hope Rule

Shall we refer to Ernesto as...

Hopeless?


Ernesto didnt violate the rule

The rule states that if a storm does not form before it hits the caribbean islands, it will most likely not form until it gets into the Western caribbean.

Ernesto was already classified by the time he went through the Islands
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting MississippiWx:


OMG..No way those are fish storms!! GFS has to be crazy!

...lol
Why can't they be fish storms? Look at 2010, lots of storms and lots of fish. But then again, only takes one to make it all the way west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know y'all gon' get excited, but let's try to keep the number of TWO's posted below 10?
Yeah right that is like talking to wood.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2681. ncstorm
Has anyone thought that maybe the GFS and Euro could be right? You got the GFS and the Euro as both top models..with Debby you had the Euro in with the other camp of models and GFS all out there by itself but to have both wrong??..I just dont see that happening but if they are then thats scary with future storms..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting floridaboy14:
if ernesto keeps stregthining in the Eastern carribean, would the model tracks have to be shifted north?

very much so
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It's going to be difficult to keep this one from becoming a TC as well.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting nofailsafe:


Reads like they still need more data to make that decision, perhaps though. That was a FAST spinup. Going from Zero to TD/TS in less than 12 hours? Yikes.
The good thing about fast development out there is the majority of times they recurve out to sea.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DataNerd:

]


Are they declaring td6 then?



possible 90l is gone from navy that normally means a renumber will be posted soon



2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
91L.INVEST
05L.ERNESTO

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST
12W.HAIKUI
11W.DAMREY
10W.SAOLA

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know y'all gon' get excited, but let's try to keep the number of TWO's posted below 10?

Good luck with that one... :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting Tazmanian:




when dos the atcf update next?
In about 1 hour.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know y'all gon' get excited, but let's try to keep the number of TWO's posted below 10?




good luck with that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Global models have done poorly this year. Period.




when dos the atcf update next?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know y'all gon' get excited, but let's try to keep the number of TWO's posted below 10?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




I'd say thats a td.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
one would hope! I know I already let my friends and family out that way know to keep a heads up, though I wouldn't mind if they held together long enough to give me some excitement in Minneapolis tonight XD

not that I would wish that kind of destruction on a heavily populated area, but man they are fun to watch

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Yeah those cells have been romping around for quite a while now. Hopefully everyone in the path of the storms are aware of those.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Depression 6 at 11PM?
TD 6 at 8pm or 11pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Most of the global models have done a poor job with Ernesto and 90L.
Global models have done poorly this year. Period.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


Reads like they still need more data to make that decision, perhaps though. That was a FAST spinup. Going from Zero to TD/TS in less than 12 hours? Yikes.




I think its pretty close:

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Personally I think Ernesto is a 65-70mph storm very close to hurricane status!
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Funktop Green

...shortly after DMIN

Hang on!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most of the global models have done a poor job with Ernesto and 90L.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting ncstorm:


Now Doug..that dont even sound right coming from you..







Yeah, I know. Thats why I posted it.LOL!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Depression 6 at 11PM?


Reads like they still need more data to make that decision, perhaps though. That was a FAST spinup. Going from Zero to TD/TS in less than 12 hours? Yikes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

]


Are they declaring td6 then?
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
well that was useless next flight into ernesto is 12Z tomrrow well by that time TS ernesto could very well be Hurricane Ernesto with 80MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Could 90L be declared the prettiest invest yet of 2012?


Heck, when was the last time anybody has seen a nicer looking invest period?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS, 348 hours... Assuming 90L becomes Florence, there's Gordon, Helene, and Isaac:

That's 15 days out, but if it verifies we get 3 cyclones that recurve and clip Newfoundland before exiting stage right.
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I truly thought Ernie would look really bad by the end of today. Rules are made to be broken I guess.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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