Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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90L should be TD6 later today:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
90L is off the Navy and floater pages. Renumber expected.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
2755. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
2753. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
its going to be hard watching three storms at the same time!!


naw

now when we get 5 at the same time
thats when it starts getting hectic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A very strongly worded 70%, you usually don't see "advisories could be initiated" until 90+% expect TD 6 or Florence at 11.

I think they want to wait until tomorrow afternoon for 91L to be justified as a TC, (If it is one at all) but I think at least a code orange was warranted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


As opposed to the high-resolution hurricane models?

HWRF and GFDL forecasts from 24 hours ago were way too weak for this afternoon:





Intensity the models always struggle with early on. The track verification in the Caribbean hasn't been determined yet.
For intensity, yes. In the short term, the hurricane models have had a better handle on intensity. We'll see about long range intensity since the HWRF and GFDL usually overdo it in the long run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ernesto= Big area of convection over coc and organizing nicely.
90L= almost a TD and is looking really good.
91L= organizing steadily, rain/wind for FL.
I think 90L is a T.D...And I hope you behave Isaac when you form.Wouldn't want you doing harm to anyone.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2745. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting Pocamocca:


Thought that's Avila?
Unless Stewart is doing the writing, WU isn't interested lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I truly thought Ernie would look really bad by the end of today. Rules are made to be broken I guess.

Ernesto is no conformist. He'll probably be smother-with-a-pillow ugly when we wake up and look at him tomorrow am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70% for 90L, 20% for 91L.
Nothing unexpected there.
Ernesto is looking very good. I doubt this is still a 50mph storm.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting MississippiWx:
20% for 91L? Lol. Ok, NHC. You da boss.
A percentage isn't going to stop a system from developing. ;)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Back from mowing the lawn... at least I'm thankful my grass is growing fast everyday. My back is hurting though... so how is Ernesto doing? How is 90L doing? How is 91L doing?

Ernesto= Big area of convection over coc and organizing nicely.
90L= almost a TD and is looking really good.
91L= organizing steadily, rain/wind for FL.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting txcoast16:


Good luck with that. I predict at least 7 posts of the two.



One can hope. Though, hope only goes so far and it's not very buoyant most days of the week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, well, for whatever reason the Shear directly over the CoC lifted some, and there is -60C to -80C convection over the CoC within just a few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2737. LargoFl
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

* AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WENTWORTH...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHANY...
REIDSVILLE...
WENTWORTH...
HARRISONS CROSSROADS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF QUARTER OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.



LAT...LON 3626 7996 3651 7987 3655 7984 3654 7951
3647 7952 3624 7967
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 205DEG 3KT 3638 7978



RAB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
20% for 91L? Lol. Ok, NHC. You da boss.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
So we could have 2 storms in/ near the gulf of Mexico in the next 3-7days, Fuigiwara anyone?
After all, Ernesto is moving faster and could close the gap.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 679
Quoting Levi32:


As opposed to the high-resolution hurricane models?

HWRF and GFDL forecasts from 24 hours ago was way too weak for this afternoon:





Intensity the models always struggle with early on. The track verification in the Caribbean hasn't been determined yet.
Levi, Ernesto is exceding expectations and the models are all over the place with his intensity. If he is stregthining now, will conditions in the W.carribean be even better than now?
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drop a cow on FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Ernesto a major in 48 hours? Will a possible rapid intensification change the projected course quite a bit to the NE? Yucatan may be the only thing stopping Ernesto at this point from becoming a nasty major. If Ernesto manages to shoot the gap or goes over Western Cuba then a Cat.3 may be the least of our worries. Not prognosticating disaster, just think the projected path the NHC has may be off with Ernesto becoming a much stronger storm than first thought; at least at this stage. HH failure is really unfortunate with all this change Ernesto has gone through today. Ernesto hurricane by morning, cat.2 by tomorrow evening is not out of the realm of possibilities.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Whats the buoy #?


SPGF1
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
dran you FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
2727. ncstorm
70%!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14439
Mswx what's your thoughts on our tropical weather?
Interesting huh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back from mowing the lawn... at least I'm thankful my grass is growing fast everyday. My back is hurting though... so how is Ernesto doing? How is 90L doing? How is 91L doing?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7898
Blog is not going to be happy with Landsea's conservative percentage on 91L. LOL, I can feel it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Advisories could be initiated later tonight for 90L.

91L remains 20%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't worry bout storms till they enter the Gulf, just how I roll
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
2720. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/64.76W


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2719. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:
Most of the global models have done a poor job with Ernesto and 90L.


As opposed to the high-resolution hurricane models?

HWRF and GFDL forecasts from 24 hours ago were way too weak for this evening:





Intensity the models always struggle with early on. The track verification in the Caribbean hasn't been determined yet.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How about we go ahead and decide to refrain from posting the TWO, someone's going to do it anyway and with a little discretion we won't create an illegible page of the same thing over and over again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F


Whats the buoy #?
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
TWO posted above
90L=70%
91L=20%
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
2713. sarepa
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. South Florida to be exact.
Don't make JFV happy.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Seldom say much here, just now and then. Watch and learn. I just have to admit Ernesto is defying all that I have heard about the Eastern Caribbean being a tough area for tropical systems. Albeit, this may be a short-lived burst of impressive convection in the last few hours, and it really is against the norm, something tells me Ernesto is not done strengthening by any means. Amazing how tropical systems can create their own environment, (moisture) to stay alive like this storm.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. South Florida to be exact.
Shhhhhhhhhhh! Not everyone has their shower curtain yet.
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Quoting Pocamocca:

I bet you think it's coming to Houston, Rita?


Aint either one coming to Houston sport, chillin with a Fresca
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting BenBIogger:


Pressures are not dropping near 91L yet.


5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.