Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, it was made to be.
Like Usain Bolt? maybe when he retired from running he will be a Metorologist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I expect a shift of the models on Ernesto to be more North in the next few days on the next runs.


It better slow down less than 20mph is all I gotta say
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
I find forecaster Eric Blake from the NHC to be the Debbie Downer for some reason.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2803. Grothar
I expect a shift of the models on Ernesto to be more North in the next few days on the next runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2802. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
2801. wxmod
11:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
These are both MODIS satellite photos taken today. The top one is of the USA, almost all of it. The bottom photo shows exactly the same area in square miles of Russia.


Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
2800. Bluestorm5
11:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
And I just saw that HH plane failed... *shaking my head*
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
2798. tropicfreak
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dry air everywhere...
maybe eventually a problem


Not really. Seems to be mixing it out.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
2797. STXHurricanes2012
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Wow! Ernesto was pissed that other storms don't do well in the dead zone but he came out saying who cares with the dead zone lol
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
2796. nofailsafe
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting robj144:


That's his actual name?! I thought it was a handle. :)


That is his actual name.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Landsea
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
2795. Tazmanian
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Check out that CDO...




is there a eye wall fourming?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2794. Patrap
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Forecast Points active

Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2792. MAweatherboy1
11:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Check out that CDO...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8046
2791. Bluestorm5
11:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:



90L may be getting renumbered right now.

Its gone on the floater page and the Navy.
Yeah I saw that. Not surprised though... that's not a invest, that's a TD or TS.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
2790. MiamiHurricanes09
11:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting nofailsafe:


But it's Chris Landsea. What better name for a meteorologist than Landsea?
LOL, it was made to be.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2789. hydrus
11:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
70% for 90L, 20% for 91L.
Nothing unexpected there.
Ernesto is looking very good. I doubt this is still a 50mph storm.
Now Ernesto is strong enough to really whip up the warm water and feed itself. This will help it create its own environment to fight off the dry air that is surrounding the storm. I said earlier today that this is going to be a large and intense hurricane.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22683
2788. LargoFl
11:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
...................................folks the invest on 91L has turned blue
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
2787. robj144
11:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting nofailsafe:


But it's Chris Landsea. What better name for a meteorologist than Landsea?


That's his actual name?! I thought it was a handle. :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
2786. ncstorm
11:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Updated HPC map

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
2785. nofailsafe
11:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Here's a little nugget of somewhat out-of-date information from the 4pm forecast discussion out of HGX:

WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TS ERNESTO WHICH IS LOOKING
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT
ASHORE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
2784. RitaEvac
11:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
If Ernesto don't start slowing down he will be in C America
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
2783. redwagon
11:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Methurricanes:
So we could have 2 storms in/ near the gulf of Mexico in the next 3-7days, Fuigiwara anyone?
After all, Ernesto is moving faster and could close the gap.

Fujuwharas don't compete for space, these two coming at right angles is going to be pretty interesting though.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
2782. TomTaylor
11:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


Pretty sure I just demonstrated that even 24-hour intensity verification has been poor. I think 24 hours counts as short term lol.
If you were looking at the global models two days ago, you'd know they have had a horrible handle on intensity. Two days ago HWRF and GFDL had a 40-50 knot Ernesto entering the Caribbean. ECMWF and GFS had an open wave.

Pretty clear who's had a better handle on short term intensity over the last couple of days. As for future forecasts, that's up in the air, but if we verify past short term intensity forecasts the hurricane models have done better.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
2781. Patrap
11:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2780. LargoFl
11:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
2779. wunderkidcayman
11:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
is it just me or did Ernesto's cloud tops just spin
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
2778. RTSplayer
11:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
This is about to become a decent sized and respectably powerful storm if that convection keeps building.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2777. Tribucanes
11:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
20% with 91L is probably right on. May weaken somewhat tonight and with land interaction coming PROBABLY won't develop before then. With a COC and the fact that 91L has made big steps towards organization, I'm thinking continued organization may happen overnight. If the last two nights were any indication, 91L could well have NHC scrambling for a different colored crayon sooner than later. Really curious to see what 91L looks like in about six or seven hours; that will be very telling for 91L's future.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
2776. LargoFl
11:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Krycek1984:
Why does LargoFL post so many weather maps of FL and all kinds of severe weather warnings from around the country? I don't get it. We don't all live in Florida, and I can look at my local severe weather warnings on my own.
yes but you looking does not show activity in the blogs post count now does it..if you can look you can post,plain and simple
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
2775. GTcooliebai
11:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
18z HWRF intensity has come down, but I still like the idea of a bend towards the NW, just can't see it plowing straight into Central America at the rate of intensity we're now seeing.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2774. nofailsafe
11:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unless Stewart is doing the writing, WU isn't interested lol.


But it's Chris Landsea. What better name for a meteorologist than Landsea?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
2773. wxchaser97
11:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think 90L is a T.D...And I hope you behave Isaac when you form.Wouldn't want you doing harm to anyone.
Pretty much is and I will try to not cause havoc on others but can't guarantee anything.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
2772. MiamiHurricanes09
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:
Before everyone gets tied up with TD 6, wanted to ask, do we know if we are getting another recon flight at around0000?

It says there is one on the schedule and I will stay up for that if the current convection over Ernesto continues.
No missions until 12z it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2771. TomTaylor
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
70% for 90L, 20% for 91L.
Nothing unexpected there.
Ernesto is looking very good. I doubt this is still a 50mph storm.
I agree. Warm waters, a solid moisture envelope, and light upper level winds have allowed Ernesto to defy forecasts from both the global models and us humans. Trade winds were accelerating into the Caribbean but when Ernesto's low pressure moves into the eastern Caribbean, it becomes the focus for the stronger winds, actually tightening up and strengthening it's circulation.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
2770. MississippiWx
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting MississippiBoy:
Mswx what's your thoughts on our tropical weather?
Interesting huh.


My head is spinning, lol. My forecast all along has been for Ernesto to make its final landfall in MX/South TX. However, I had a second scenario where it feels the weakness over the N Gulf Coast/NE Gulf Coast and escapes there. We aren't out of the woods by any means.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2769. Levi32
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
For intensity, yes. In the short term, the hurricane models have had a better handle on intensity. We'll see about long range intensity since the HWRF and GFDL usually overdo it in the long run.


Pretty sure I just demonstrated that even 24-hour intensity verification has been poor. I think 24 hours counts as short term lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2768. DataNerd
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
People is actually thinking 91L is going to be a tropical storm in near future? Lol... and NHC issuing 20% for that area? A big joke... but 90L is right on at 70%.



90L may be getting renumbered right now.

Its gone on the floater page and the Navy.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
2767. Krycek1984
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Why does LargoFL post so many weather maps of FL and all kinds of severe weather warnings from around the country? I don't get it. We don't all live in Florida, and I can look at my local severe weather warnings on my own.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
2766. GeorgiaStormz
11:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
so are they saying ll tonight or something?

later tonight TD 6 likely

I agree with low probs on 91L
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
2765. Bluestorm5
11:42 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
People is actually thinking 91L is going to be a tropical storm in near future? Lol... and NHC issuing 20% for that area? A big joke... but 90L is right on at 70%.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
2764. DataNerd
11:42 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Before everyone gets tied up with TD 6, wanted to ask, do we know if we are getting another recon flight at around0000?

It says there is one on the schedule and I will stay up for that if the current convection over Ernesto continues.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
2763. Tazmanian
11:42 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Since the HH plane failed.we'll send out stormtop's this time.




and jfv will fly the plan for us
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2762. GeorgiaStormz
11:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
70% for 90L, 20% for 91L.
Nothing unexpected there.
Ernesto is looking very good. I doubt this is still a 50mph storm.


dry air everywhere...
maybe eventually a problem
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
2761. washingtonian115
11:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Since the HH plane failed.we'll send out stormtop's this time.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
2760. MississippiWx
11:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


As opposed to the high-resolution hurricane models?

HWRF and GFDL forecasts from 24 hours ago were way too weak for this evening:





Intensity the models always struggle with early on. The track verification in the Caribbean hasn't been determined yet.


The hurricane models have at least shown intensification every now and then. It has been intermittent, but they've at least shown it. Global models want to smother Ernesto and have wanted to even before it reached the islands.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2758. CosmicEvents
11:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
drop a cow on FORECASTER LANDSEA
lol
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5688
2757. wxchaser97
11:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
90L should be TD6 later today:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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