Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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2857. Patrap
earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)


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I think many of us were hoping for an afternoon or evening update from Mr. Masters. Probably a very intelligent and prudent choice to wait till the morning when so much of this unpredictability will be far more clear; hopefully.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Correct isn't there a big ULL out there right now north of the islands? It would have probably ended up another Chris.
Yes.Chris was one of the biggest fails in tropical weather history ever!.It decoupled right before peoples eyes.CyberTed has the Gif.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
Quoting Patrap:
earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Those tracks have GOM written all over it.
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2853. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
is it just me or did Ernesto's cloud tops just spin



yeah its spinning

spinning right up
watch wait see

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to sound like a alarmist but..we may be seeing the beginning stages of a beast...


I always thought so but I never thought Ernesto would become one till the NW Caribbean. I still think that but Ernesto may become a hurricane much sooner then expected.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to sound like a alarmist but..we may be seeing the beginning stages of a beast...

Dually noted. Just my opinion, but things look set up too well for it not to be. We shall see though.
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2850. Msdrown
Newby again, what does the HH mean by 100mph max wind???
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2849. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to sound like a alarmist but..we may be seeing the beginning stages of a beast...


I dont know..I aint sold on that yet..lets hope not because if so, someone 'bout to get run over!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15264
2848. Patrap
earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Looking really good, cant wait to find out how it looks in the morning, may be in for a surprise.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2846. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Agreed. Imagine how different this would have been if Ernesto had taken the path north of the islands...we'd be looking at an entirely different storm.
Absolutely.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
If Ernesto don't start slowing down he will be in C America


Yeah this is the only way that i see Ernesto enter in the north of GOM, he need to slow down and wait until the ridge weak
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Correct isn't there a big ULL out there right now north of the islands?


Yup.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5680
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to sound like a alarmist but..we may be seeing the beginning stages of a beast...


You aren't lying!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Latest shear map:

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2841. robj144
Quoting BenBIogger:


... Why this early in the season huh?


Don't quote him... that's what trolls want. Just ignore and they go away. He can't do math anyhow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't want to sound like a alarmist but..we may be seeing the beginning stages of a beast...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
2839. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38389
Quoting washingtonian115:
We wouldn't be talking about a storm XD.I'd be sheared to pieces.
Correct isn't there a big ULL out there right now north of the islands? It would have probably ended up another Chris.
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Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
ernesto misses florida way to the south, 90l misses florida way to the east and 91l doesnt amount to much so like i said a month ago florida will get no more storms this year season done again another bust season whats that 9 years in a row now>?


... Why this early in the season huh?
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Switching over to my handy dandy JSL imagery for the night.

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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
Quoting Methurricanes:
Like Usain Bolt? maybe when he retired from running he will be a Metorologist.


I actually think it fits better that a guy with the last name Bolt is a track and field star lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Agreed. Imagine how different this would have been if Ernesto had taken the path north of the islands...we'd be looking at an entirely different storm.
We wouldn't be talking about a storm XD.I'd be sheared to pieces.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


GFS is full of caca. I will eat 2 helpings of crow if Ernesto goes to Vera Cruz!
This ^^^ LOL
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2829. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38389
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's safe to say that Ernesto is not a 50 mph tropical storm anymore. More like 60-65 mph.

This could be a hurricane tomorrow if everything continues to work in its favor.

TA 13, is that thunderstorm complex in the upper Midwest a derecho?
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2826. scott39
Ernesto is timing a favorable enviroment, while he trucks through the Caribbean. Im afraid this is going to be bad for some folks!
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90L coming into view of RAMSDIS loop.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting hydrus:
Now Ernesto is strong enough to really whip up the warm water and feed itself. This will help it create its own environment to fight off the dry air that is surrounding the storm. I said earlier today that this is going to be a large and intense hurricane.

Agreed. Imagine how different this would have been if Ernesto had taken the path north of the islands...we'd be looking at an entirely different storm.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5680
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's safe to say that Ernesto is not a 50 mph tropical storm anymore. More like 60-65 mph.

This could be a hurricane tomorrow if everything continues to work in its favor.


Link


Looking quite cold.

Also CDO visible.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Well recon reported one building earlier so I would say probably so... Unfortunately most of the microwave passes today have missed the center... The only one that really hit was AMSUB and it's always fuzzy:


This one is a couple hours more recent than that one, although at nearly four hours old, this one is beginning to become a bit dated as well.

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2820. robj144
.....
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2819. Patrap
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2817. ncstorm
Its funny that my viewing always goes to another option for "SHOW" without me selecting it recently..almost as if someone logged into my account and selected it for me..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15264
Quoting Pocamocca:
All in all, so far nothing new with the southern trending GFS....

Looks to be favoring the BOC and in and around Veracruz, Mexico for landfall.


GFS is full of caca. I will eat 2 helpings of crow if Ernesto goes to Vera Cruz!
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2815. robj144
So there's no chance of 91L becoming a hurricane or strong tropical storm and hitting Florida? Didn't Katrina form about where it is now? Katrina became a minimal hurricane right before FLA landfall.
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I think it's safe to say that Ernesto is not a 50 mph tropical storm anymore. More like 60-65 mph.

This could be a hurricane tomorrow if everything continues to work in its favor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2813. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
If you were looking at the global models two days ago, you'd know they have had a horrible handle on intensity. Two days ago HWRF and GFDL had a 40-50 knot Ernesto entering the Caribbean. ECMWF and GFS had an open wave.

Pretty clear who's had a better handle on short term intensity over the last couple of days. As for future forecasts, that's up in the air, but if we verify past short term intensity forecasts the hurricane models have done better.


Ever since the first couple of runs the HWRF and GFDL have been fluctuating rather wildly on intensity, short and long term. Criticizing global models on intensity forecasts is rather silly too in my opinion. The only model that can truly be criticized here is the ECMWF, which has a high enough grid resolution to resolve a circulation the size of Ernesto's.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Well recon reported one building earlier so I would say probably so... Unfortunately most of the microwave passes today have missed the center... The only one that really hit was AMSUB and it's always fuzzy:




ok thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
2811. Patrap
The Low Cloud Viz Final Frame

earlier

from 22:15 UTC



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He also said who's more organized now lol :P
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2809. LargoFl
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Wow! Ernesto was pissed that other storms don't do well in the dead zone but he came out saying who cares with the dead zone lol
...nice outflow behind it huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38389
Quoting Tazmanian:



is there a eye wall fourming?

Well recon reported one building earlier so I would say probably so... Unfortunately most of the microwave passes today have missed the center... The only one that really hit was AMSUB and it's always fuzzy:

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, it was made to be.
Like Usain Bolt? maybe when he retired from running he will be a Metorologist.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 699

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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