Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


I still stand by that statement about the tropical wave from which 90L spawned.

If Ernesto becomes a hurricane before 77W I'll be wrong. I said TS with possibility for opening up the southern side until Jamaica's longitude. Recon didn't find anything stronger than last night during its short mission today. Call me wrong after I'm wrong, not before.
Do you expect Ernesto to have its wind speed bumped up in the 11pm advisory?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
There is a high next to FL but the Rain is going S in WPB so maybe 91L is getting stronger!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
2905. Levi32
Quoting HuracanTaino:
No, John Hopes rules states, that if it dosn't develop before entering the eastern Caribean, it wont do so until it reaches the western Caribean.Ernesto was already an storm when it did.


I know. I still thought it was funny :)
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Not to be a downcaster, but often times these developing systems will flare up nice CDOs like Ernesto has, but then they warm just as fast as they cooled. Don't be shocked if Ernesto dies down in < 6 hours. Might not, be it is just as likely as RI at this point.
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2903. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

If that is the correct center point, Ernesto may not be as symmetrical as I had thought.

It doesn't seem like it though but ya never know.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If Ernesto doesn't become the first major of the season then 90L will, who knows they might both make major status.

This is going to be one heck of a month with more strong storms to come.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol
No, John Hopes rules states, that if it dosn't develop before entering the eastern Caribean, it wont do so until it reaches the western Caribean.Ernesto was already an storm when it did.
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Quoting Levi32:


I still stand by that forecast.

If Ernesto becomes a hurricane before 77W I'll be wrong. I said TS with possibility for opening up the southern side until Jamaica's longitude. Recon didn't find anything stronger than last night during its short mission today. Call me wrong after I'm wrong, not before.
We all have fail forecast...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



yeah its spinning

spinning right up
watch wait see


S. Amer continues to generously fund Ernesto's moisture account.. staying umbilical to the ICTZ has been critical in his uninterrupted development.

All the other waves that die in the Horse Latitudes should have just kept further south :)
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2897. LargoFl
........................................namm continues to keep 99L off shore of florida
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Especially after all the ugly comments yesterday.Ernesto has gone from ugly duckling to blossoming into a beautiful swan.Unfortunately in the wrong place...
and the comments when Floridians were claiming that 91L was better than Ernesto... I think Ernesto is angry because of attention on 91L earlier, lol.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Though if Ernesto keeps out the dry air, then someone is not going to be happy down the road.
EDIT: I meant not, Im not wishing for doom
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Quoting wxchaser97:
90L:


TS Ernesto:
If Ernesto doesn't become the first major of the season then 90L will, who knows they might both make major status.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2893. LargoFl
Quoting Dragod66:


70% on 90L
..yes that local station had old data..thanks
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Hurricane watch may be warranted for Jamaica and the Cayman islands.
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Quoting hydrus:
This will not happen.jmo


This is the track I observed on this model 2 days ago!!
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2890. JLPR2
The large view, both Ernesto and 90L are booming tonight.

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2889. Levi32
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
You can add Levi to that mix. ;)

He told me that 90L was way too fat a wave to likely amount to anything. The amplitude made it too big to have a chance at development.

He also said that he expected the increasing El Nino would likely kill Ernesto as it approaches the central Caribbean. Fat chance of that, I suspect.

Don't get me wrong, I still like and appreciate his well thought out input, but the giants tend to make their own weather from the get go, as if destiny were theirs.

Based upon my experience watching these systems in the Eastern Caribbean, better known as the "grave yard," those that do well here, almost without exception go on to become monsters. The reason is simple, if conditions are that favorable in this region, they usually only get better as they travel further west.

The caveat I would like to add to this is for Central America and/or Mexico, because typically the monsters that do well in the graveyard also tend to go more west than northwest. Although I'm sure to hear of exceptions to this rudimentary observation.


You meant 91L. I still stand by that statement about the tropical wave from which 91L spawned.

If Ernesto becomes a hurricane before 77W I'll be wrong. I said TS with possibility for opening up the southern side until Jamaica's longitude. Recon didn't find anything stronger than last night during its short mission today, and the worst part of the Caribbean guantlet is still ahead. Call me wrong after I'm wrong, not before.
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2888. SLU


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Quoting wxchaser97:
90L:


TS Ernesto:

If that is the correct center point, Ernesto may not be as symmetrical as I had thought.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Has 90L and 91L gotten better organized?

Wow... Look at Ernesto...
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
You can add Levi to that mix. ;)

He told me that 90L was way too fat a wave to likely amount to anything. The amplitude made it too big to have a chance at development.

He also said that he expected the increasing El Nino would likely kill Ernesto as it approaches the central Caribbean. Fat chance of that, I suspect.

Don't get me wrong, I still like and appreciate his well thought out input, but the giants tend to make their own weather from the get go, as if destiny were theirs.

Based upon my experience watching these systems in the Eastern Caribbean, better known as the "grave yard," those that do well here, almost without exception go on to become monsters. The reason is simple, if conditions are that favorable in this region, they usually only get better as they travel further west.

The caveat I would like to add to this is for Central America and/or Mexico, because typically the monsters that do well in the graveyard also tend to go more west than northwest. Although I'm sure to hear of exceptions to this rudimentary observation.


+1
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Quoting LargoFl:


70% on 90L
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


Jeez, Ernesto is just proving the haters that he is not a weak storm... I think we got it, Ernesto.
Especially after all the ugly comments yesterday.Ernesto has gone from ugly duckling to blossoming into a beautiful swan.Unfortunately in the wrong place...
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Quoting ncstorm:


You got half on fuel? because I dont think thats happening..probably will resume with the next scheduled flight


I don't think they worry about fuel costs when lives are at stake. If this thing takes off in strengthening, people downstream (Jamaica) need to know.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
90L:


TS Ernesto:
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2879. LargoFl
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2878. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
.
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Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
ernesto misses florida way to the south, 90l misses florida way to the east and 91l doesnt amount to much so like i said a month ago florida will get no more storms this year season done again another bust season whats that 9 years in a row now>?


What! How can you call this a bust?! This is August 3, we still have this month, Sept, and October. Yes El Nino is coming but right now we are at what a neutral state of affairs. So things could just be getting started and Florida sticks its nose out into the ocean so sooner or later it will get one.

Quoting Pocamocca:


WISHCASTER!!! :)

He could make a run at that status by AM, although I think he'll fall shy of that. Sometime tomorrow though.


Why? He has some nice cold cloud tops. Once Ernesto gets situated and organized he could very well be a 60-65 mph storm. I think it can be hard to tell though with all the disorganized clouds Ernesto has. Remember Debby got up to what 65-70 mph and it was just a afternoon thunderstorm on one side of the storm each day it was over Florida.
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2876. hydrus
This will not happen.jmo
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Quoting DataNerd:
Eye is visible trying to form



Jeez, Ernesto is just proving the haters that he is not a weak storm... I think we got it, Ernesto.
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2873. LargoFl
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Most of the global models have done a poor job with Ernesto and 90L.
You can add Levi to that mix. ;)

He told me that 91L was way too fat a wave to likely amount to anything. The amplitude made it too big to have a chance at development.

He also said that he expected the increasing El Nino would likely kill Ernesto as it approaches the central Caribbean. Fat chance of that, I suspect.

Don't get me wrong, I still like and appreciate his well thought out input, but the giants tend to make their own weather from the get go, as if destiny were theirs.

Based upon my experience watching these systems in the Eastern Caribbean, better known as the "grave yard," those that do well here, almost without exception go on to become monsters. The reason is simple, if conditions are that favorable in this region, they usually only get better as they travel further west.

The caveat I would like to add to this is for Central America and/or Mexico, because typically the monsters that do well in the graveyard also tend to go more west than northwest. Although I'm sure to hear of exceptions to this rudimentary observation.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Eye is visible trying to form


Maybe, but I would say probably not, just a slightly warmer spot in the CDO. We will know in the next couple of frames though.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
.
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2869. robj144
Quoting DataNerd:
Eye is visible trying to form



Where is it?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

There is a chance that we may have to watch the western edge of the CDO for dry air erosion, but other than that, thing look to be falling together nicely for Ernesto.
Though if Ernesto keeps out the dry air, then someone is going to be happy down the road.
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2867. ncstorm
Quoting MississippiWx:
Since the HH had a failure on that flight, they could readjust the schedule to make another flight in later tonight.


You got half on fuel? because I dont think thats happening..probably will resume with the next scheduled flight
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Eye is visible trying to form

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
2865. emguy
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah this is the only way that i see Ernesto enter in the north of GOM, he need to slow down and wait until the ridge weak


Actually, Ernesto's forward speed has been gradually slowing today...and that is a trend that is ahead of schedule.
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2864. Patrap
earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Early Model Wind Forecast

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Looking really good, cant wait to find out how it looks in the morning, may be in for a surprise.

There is a chance that we may have to watch the western edge of the CDO for dry air erosion, but other than that, thing look to be falling together nicely for Ernesto.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
2862. scott39
This is the first time that I have ever seen a TC developing in the EASTERN Caribbean. All of those who have died in the graveyard in past seasons....have come for there revenge! Boowaaahahahah
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah this is the only way that i see Ernesto enter in the north of GOM, he need to slow down and wait until the ridge weak


he is forecast to slow down
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Latest shear map:

Imagine if that Anti-cyclone came down to Ernesto...
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Since the HH had a failure on that flight, they could readjust the schedule to make another flight in later tonight.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2858. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
90L coming into view of RAMSDIS loop.



The fact that only the BAMS suite and the CLIMO models show a real turn to the north makes me think that 90L could be trouble for someone down the road.

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2857. Patrap
earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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