Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bwi:


Yes, MD suburbs NE of DC. I usually follow the mid-atlantic blog, put lurk here in hurricane season.
Yay!.What suburb?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
Quoting floridaboy14:
How strong will Ernesto be at the 11pm advisory?
a: 40-45mph
b: 50mph
c: 60mph
d: 65mph
e: 70mph
f: hurricane



G cat 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
2954. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
91-L : " Hey Inverted troughs need Love too !"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How strong will Ernesto be at the 11pm advisory?
a: 40-45mph
b: 50mph
c: 60mph
d: 65mph
e: 70mph
f: hurricane
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
2951. Patrap
Quoting Seflhurricane:
can you post them as soon as they are avaliable please


That frame will load them, and I will post them again here when they do load.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
2950. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if everything comes together
i expect 05l to become
a major hurricane in 36 hrs from now
a possible cat 4 as it passes and enters
the gulf via yuctan channel
Scary stuff man.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2949. bwi
Quoting washingtonian115:
Are you the one from the D.C area?


Yes, MD suburbs NE of DC. I usually follow the mid-atlantic blog, put lurk here in hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ernesto has intensified.

03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
OKC081-109-040045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
OKLAHOMA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF
OKLAHOMA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A WILDFIRE WAS BURNING OUT OF CONTROL NEAR LUTHER. RESIDENTS IN THE
AREA SOUTH OF NORTHEAST 234TH STREET... NORTH OF NORTHEAST 150TH
STREET... EAST OF LUTHER ROAD... AND WEST OF COUNTY ROAD NS330
/WHICH IS ONE MILE EAST OF POTTAWATOMIE ROAD/ SHOULD EVACUATE
IMMEDIATELY. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE TOWN OF LUTHER.

A SHELTER HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED AT THE LUTHER COMMUNITY CENTER
LOCATED AT SOUTHWEST 7TH AND HOGBACK ROAD.

That's not good, I saw several of those around here last year. Hopefully they get things under control over there.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
2946. hydrus
Quoting stormchaser19:
91L will help Ernesto with some water vapor , this storm makes me have bad feelings

You and me both. This storm has the potential to affect millions of people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2945. Patrap
Dem end lines are gonna start finding coastal Solutions in a run or two as well.

Buckle up.

Check the mirror's as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Patrap:
ATCF have cleared the 18Z Runs and the 00Z should load shortly..

can you post them as soon as they are avaliable please
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2943. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
if everything comes together
i expect 05l to become
a major hurricane in 36 hrs from now
a possible cat 4 as it passes and enters
the gulf via yuctan channel
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Well, a little early, maybe, but anyone along the northern gulf coast to possibly the entire TX coast, use this weekend wisely. Look over supplies, start a basic inventory, mentally get ready for next week. We're a more informed group on this forum than joe average out there, so get a jump on things and lay in the need missing supplies--- i.e. change the oil in the genny and do a power assurance run, do you have needed board up material, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bwi:
Latest sat picture is a teensy bit alarming? The curvy looking tippy top is right along the forecast track.
Are you the one from the D.C area?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
2939. Patrap
ATCF have cleared the 18Z Runs and the 00Z should load shortly..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
2938. robj144
Quoting Dragod66:
i know this is a little off topic but ive been wondering this question for years, ok here goes. What is the highest number of tropical cyclones in the world at one time?... if anyone can answer this thatd be awesome! ;0


After a quick Google search, here's the answer for the Atlantic:

Link

I'm sure with some searching, you can find your answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2937. bwi
Latest sat picture is a teensy bit alarming? The curvy looking tippy top is right along the forecast track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Melagoo:


Ernesto is Huffing and Puffing now
Quoting Melagoo:


Ernesto is Huffing and Puffing now

lol and soon to be blowing houses down
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OKC081-109-040045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
OKLAHOMA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF
OKLAHOMA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A WILDFIRE WAS BURNING OUT OF CONTROL NEAR LUTHER. RESIDENTS IN THE
AREA SOUTH OF NORTHEAST 234TH STREET... NORTH OF NORTHEAST 150TH
STREET... EAST OF LUTHER ROAD... AND WEST OF COUNTY ROAD NS330
/WHICH IS ONE MILE EAST OF POTTAWATOMIE ROAD/ SHOULD EVACUATE
IMMEDIATELY. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE TOWN OF LUTHER.

A SHELTER HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED AT THE LUTHER COMMUNITY CENTER
LOCATED AT SOUTHWEST 7TH AND HOGBACK ROAD.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
91L will help Ernesto with some water vapor , this storm makes me have bad feelings

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Melagoo:


Ernesto is Huffing and Puffing now
The greens on the Funktop have expanded in Ernesto.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Waiting for SAB and TAFB.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 13:58:22 N Lon : 64:44:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1001.3mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 4.0

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 66km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.2 degrees

************************************************* ***
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Quoting Levi32:


Ever since the first couple of runs the HWRF and GFDL have been fluctuating rather wildly on intensity, short and long term. Criticizing global models on intensity forecasts is rather silly too in my opinion. The only model that can truly be criticized here is the ECMWF, which has a high enough grid resolution to resolve a circulation the size of Ernesto's.
You're the one who compared them in the first place


Quoting Levi32:

As opposed to the high-resolution models?


Moving on...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
*Cuagh* what happened to open wave??? *Cuagh*
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
Ernesto is breathing now!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7663
Quoting DataNerd:
Rapid intensification flag is on per recon


Why would recon do a RI if they haven't found higher winds other than that downdraft and lowest pressure found thus far is 1004mb?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5100
Good question, strange not to see Nigel20 pop his head in today. He's been coming on late during the nighttime occasionally here. Hopefully he'll be here in the next few hours. He's such a polite nice guy, never have I seen him have issues with anyone.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
2925. Patrap
AL052012 - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
i know this is a little off topic but ive been wondering this question for years, ok here goes. What is the highest number of tropical cyclones in the world at one time?... if anyone can answer this thatd be awesome! ;0
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 604
2923. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
I expect a shift of the models on Ernesto to be more North in the next few days on the next runs.
Absolutely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anyone seen Nigel20?
Yeah I hope he's getting prepared.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hurricane watch may be warranted for Jamaica and the Cayman islands.

yeah more like Hurricane watch for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Islands and a Tropical Storm Warming for Little Cayman Island and Cayman Brac Island for now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2920. Melagoo


Ernesto is Huffing and Puffing now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:




Always like that fish parade :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2918. LargoFl
00
AXNT20 KNHC 032355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 64.1W AT 03/2100Z
OR ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF ST. LUCIA AND 340 MI...545 KM SSE
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 67W
TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 18N W OF 59W.

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE ERN ATLC NEAR
13N26W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING
FROM 18N24W TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...FOUND WITHIN A BROAD
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL GYRE
DESCRIBED BELOW. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 24W-31W. THE OVERALL
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER
WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...ANALYZED
FROM 14N39W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 7N41W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY
AIR AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT SURROUND THIS WAVE ALLOWING FOR ONLY
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOW OVER ERN PACIFIC WATERS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE SEE EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION UNDER WMO HEADER AXPZ20 KNHC 032113 TWDEP.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA
ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W CONTINUING WSW ALONG THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR
13N26W TO JUST S OF CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N41W TO
6N46W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 8N58W. SCATTERED WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 24W-31W...
ASSOCIATED TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL
GYRE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AROUND THE BROAD OMEGA
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PUSHING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY TO THE SRN CONUS STATES
PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF
24N E BETWEEN 84W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS IS
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
MODERATE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE FAR ERN GULF...AS A
VIGOROUS SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS DRIFTS WNW
OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 67W...ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS MORE SPREAD OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 11N W OF
75W...RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA
TO COSTA RICA. THE ACTIVITY ON THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BASE OF A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS W OF 80W N OF 14N. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS PLACE OVER THE FAR
WRN ATLC...SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 25N79W ENDING NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 32N W OF 72W TO
ACROSS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WNW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUOUS CONVECTION AFFECTING THE COASTAL
WATERS OF FLORIDA AND NW BAHAMAS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...SOME LOCAL COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY
OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SECOND BUT MUCH WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N56W TO
25N61W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
2917. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Anyone seen Nigel20?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2915. emguy
Quoting pipelines:
Not to be a downcaster, but often times these developing systems will flare up nice CDOs like Ernesto has, but then they warm just as fast as they cooled. Don't be shocked if Ernesto dies down in < 6 hours. Might not, be it is just as likely as RI at this point.


There are signs that this may be getting ready to occur. Cloud tops have warmed slightly, but do remain intense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Has 90L and 91L gotten better organized?

Wow... Look at Ernesto...


90L is looking just as (maybe even better) than Ernesto on satellite loops. 91L will have to get together fast because the East Coast is coming up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


The storm wont be anywhere near an island until Sunday according to the NHC map and Im sure the Jamaicans are full aware of whats coming at them..the hurricane hunters will have flown at least three more flights before then..it will be okay..


I realize that, but they have been known to do such things after technical difficulties.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
2912. LargoFl
from the 8pm..............THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting pipelines:
Not to be a downcaster, but often times these developing systems will flare up nice CDOs like Ernesto has, but then they warm just as fast as they cooled. Don't be shocked if Ernesto dies down in < 6 hours. Might not, be it is just as likely as RI at this point.

Ernesto's trend for the last couple days has been flare up in the day, die down at night... We'll see what happens tonight.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Levi is still a leading vote getter for the all-star team here, but much like Debbie, Ernesto pulling moves most no one saw or anticipated. 90L looking less and less like a fishy storm; not good at all. Levi is great, one of the best here no doubt, but he's human like the rest of us too. He made an excellent observation earlier about the likely reasons behind Ernesto's quickening of intensity.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Bluestorm5:
and the comments when Floridians were claiming that 91L was better than Ernesto... I think Ernesto is angry because of attention on 91L earlier, lol.
Oh he's really pissed off now.Looks like he has his "eye" (no pun intended) on the higher categories.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16383
2908. ncstorm
Quoting MississippiWx:


I don't think they worry about fuel costs when lives are at stake. If this thing takes off in strengthening, people downstream (Jamaica) need to know.


The storm wont be anywhere near an island until Sunday according to the NHC map and Im sure the Jamaicans are full aware of whats coming at them..the hurricane hunters will have flown at least three more flights before then..it will be okay..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14416
Quoting Levi32:


I still stand by that statement about the tropical wave from which 90L spawned.

If Ernesto becomes a hurricane before 77W I'll be wrong. I said TS with possibility for opening up the southern side until Jamaica's longitude. Recon didn't find anything stronger than last night during its short mission today. Call me wrong after I'm wrong, not before.
Do you expect Ernesto to have its wind speed bumped up in the 11pm advisory?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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