Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormchaser19:


55-60 mph
Ernesto looks like it could be at 60-mph by 11 PM.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Do you know why it stalled? I've been searching for an answer as to why it didn't continue on its path as forecasted.


from what I have seen a ridge to its north pushed it southward
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3005. Patrap
My love is exceeding the limit
Red-eyed and fevered with the hum of the miles
Distance and longing, my thoughts do collide
Should I rest for a while, on the side
Your love is cradled in knowing
Eyes in the mirror, still expecting they'll come
Sensing to well, when the journey is done
There is no turning back, no There is no turning back, on the road.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles shifted north with Ernesto, more realistic-looking, though the bunch going into Florida look too far east to me.

have the other models also shifted to the right towards western cuba ???
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

San Juan, Puerto Rico.

LOL
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yes but Isidore also stalled near the yucatan for over a day
Do you know why it stalled? I've been searching for an answer as to why it didn't continue on its path as forecasted.
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3000. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..................ok I can lower the pinellas shields now..worked great tonight
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2999. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

San Juan, Puerto Rico.


That's an interesting heading. Didn't know there was one named after PR's capital. XD
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2998. Levi32
18z GFS ensembles shifted north with Ernesto, more realistic-looking, though the bunch going into Florida look too far east to me.

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2997. LargoFl
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.
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I see that people are now concerned that Ernesto is about to go through some strengthening. I sort of thought so. I mentioned earlier that I was concerned that the storm was about to do a RI sometime before he reaches Jamaica on Sunday. (Yea Ernesto I have my eye on you lol).
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Ernesto looks good now, but he might be outrunning his own CDO. If he does that, it's back to square one.




Slim to none chance 1900
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2993. robj144
Quoting alcomat:
Whats the deal? Do you idiots in florida want a storm to hit you every year? Every time I log on to this blog there is about 50% of you who live in Florida, who are always trying to find a way for a freaking hurricane to come their way !!! We went through Ike here in 2008, it aint no fun !! I guess youll dont mind those government, food in a bag meals,since there aint no power...gotta love it...Flori-Duh...lol


Being realistic is quite a bit different than wanting a storm. Reread what he wrote.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Remember what happened to Major Hurricane Isidore?


yes but Isidore also stalled near the yucatan for over a day
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A question was asked earlier about the nasty squall line in the Dakota's. That is not a derecho, nor will it become one. Tomorrow may be Wisconsin's best chance at seeing it's worst weather of the season though. And since I'm guessing I'm virtually the only person here from Wisconsin, I'm pretty much warning myself. :)
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2990. Patrap
RainBowTop

TS Ernesto

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


it is getting even colder its down to -68.8 now


What does it mean for all us uninformed?
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very intrested in reading the 11pm advisory package
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO


What does this mean?
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Quoting floridaboy14:
cody is he moving west or west northwest?

San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting hydrus:
This will not happen.jmo



Right. I don't think so either. Ernesto is taking shape even in the graveyard. Getting a bit of a quicker start gives the natural coriolis a bump in latitude. As it tracks more northwestwards, too, it'll likely feel the weakness of the Bahamas system and get a tug more northwards at some point (not much but some). And, then it could catch just enough latitude to feel the predicted CONUS trough, gaining even a bit more latitude. The Bermuda High extends westwards into the central GoM, but the Bahamas low (whichever invest # it is) clearly shows the eroding western periphery of the high. And, any strengthening storm like Ernesto will have no trouble pushing up against 1012-1016 mb.

Personal opinion, if Ernesto can cycle the dry air out, continue to build convection, we'll see a significant storm that will likely track more northwards than seems currently. I don't like it. Probably serious trouble for someone - possibly Jamaica, Caymans, western Cuba/Cancun, and along the GoM coastline. Too early to tell, but mostly due west is probably not it.

TGIF, enjoy the weekend fellow weathergeeks! :) Play nice!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ernesto has intensified.

03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
cody is he moving west or west northwest?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting Pocamocca:


Affirmative. The northern part is VERY flat. Still a long landmass to cover, especially a slower moving system. It's not like moving over the extreme western tip of Cuba (like Charlie did)...


true
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2982. Patrap

Hurricane Preparation 2012

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Hurricanes101:


depends on what part of the yucatan a storm goes over, the northern portion is relatively flat
Remember what happened to Major Hurricane Isidore?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Those tracks have GOM written all over it.



yes, they definitely me have me checking my hurricane preparedness. but the NHC seems pretty certain about Mexico. since I am just learning, I am not sure why.
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Quoting alcomat:
Whats the deal? Do you idiots in florida want a storm to hit you every year? Every time I log on to this blog there is about 50% of you who live in Florida, who are always trying to find a way for a freaking hurricane to come their way !!! We went through Ike here in 2008, it aint no fun !! I guess youll dont mind those government, food in a bag meals,since there aint no power...gotta love it...Flori-Duh...lol
The only idiot in Florida on this blog that wants a storm to hit them is JFV.Floridians have went through to many in the past to want more some their way.They out of all people should know how it feels before and after a storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17492
Looks like computer models a guessing again,just like Debbie.What did Mets do before computer models.?
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2975. ackee
WHat the laest with Earnesto this is best I have seen it look
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO



come on atcf update lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
2973. bwi
Quoting bwi:


Yes, MD suburbs NE of DC. I usually follow the mid-atlantic blog, put lurk here in hurricane season.


Greenbelt/Beltsville/College Park area.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
How strong will Ernesto be at the 11pm advisory?
a: 40-45mph
b: 50mph
c: 60mph
d: 65mph
e: 70mph
f: hurricane


55-60 mph
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03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Pocamocca:


What is he stays south?

Interaction with the Yucatan is not very nice nice to hurricanes.


depends on what part of the yucatan a storm goes over, the northern portion is relatively flat
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ernesto has intensified.

03/2245 UTC 13.6N 64.4W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic
60 mph winds
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Quoting LargoFl:
from the 8pm..............THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
why do people list this stuff when a any egghead can look it up.
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Good evening everyone.

Can someone tell me if 91L is moving NW or is stationary?

Thank you.
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2966. Grothar
Doesn't look like much.

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2965. LargoFl
Quoting canehater1:
91-L : " Hey Inverted troughs need Love too !"
..lol, it hasnt entered the gulf stream and its warm waters from the gulf yet
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Ernesto looks good now, but he might be outrunning his own CDO. If he does that, it's back to square one.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
NOAA ADT at 3.2


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Quoting robj144:


After a quick Google search, here's the answer for the Atlantic:

Link

I'm sure with some searching, you can find your answer.


Thanks for answering ... but i was wondering about in all the basins. like atlantic, pacific and indian!
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Very impressive show of force out there in the tropical Atlantic on the big picture loops. Considering no MJO, and this being only August 3rd, it's extremely impressive. Mother Nature threw the August switch on us a few weeks early this season regardless of the outcome of the current picture in 72 hours.
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Quoting alcomat:
Whats the deal? Do you idiots in florida want a storm to hit you every year? Every time I log on to this blog there is about 50% of you who live in Florida, who are always trying to find a way for a freaking hurricane to come their way !!! We went through Ike here in 2008, it aint no fun !! I guess youll dont mind those government, food in a bag meals,since there aint no power...gotta love it...Flori-Duh...lol


Why make this statement after that comment?

No one other than the obvious troll has even said anything about a storm going to Florida. Keep your diatribe to yourself or at least use it when it is warranted
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2959. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Hurricane Watches are indeed very likely for Grand Cayman and jamaica tonight
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Quoting bwi:


Yes, MD suburbs NE of DC. I usually follow the mid-atlantic blog, put lurk here in hurricane season.
Yay!.What suburb?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17492

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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