Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:
Greetings !

Ernesto.
Some occasional heavy rains with east, south, and south-east breezes today.
Temps only got to 86 max.
Looks like we dodged it again....

Looks pretty good right now, and seems to have slowed.
This one must have the NHC scratching their heads....
Hey Pottery.Sounds like a summer thunderstorm.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting Astrometeor:


Since there is a huge, powerful high pressure in Texas, how would Ernesto go there. I remember Don being destroyed off the face of the Earth.


The high is supposed to back NW if it comes back in time it will steer Ernesto into STX or MX. If not the door's open.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
speaking of egos...
Do you just come on the blog to complain? ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3054. Levi32
Quoting Pocamocca:
His LLC is almost moving too fast for his convective ball. He needs to put on the breaks if he wants to triumph.


That's what trade winds do to weak systems in the eastern Caribbean.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Levi32:


You are descendant from Yoda.


and may be just as old :)
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Quoting Grothar:


How do I know these things?
speaking of egos...
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Sugarland Texas reporting here! I would welcome lots of rain, not a whole lot of wind. :D

Either way Monday im going to be doing my Hurricane shopping.
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3050. pottery
Greetings !

Ernesto.
Some occasional heavy rains with east, south, and south-east breezes today.
Temps only got to 86 max.
Looks like we dodged it again....

Looks pretty good right now, and seems to have slowed.
This one must have the NHC scratching their heads....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Sheer and forward speed are looking like the only two significant factors over the next 48 hours but Ernesto is starting to control the synoptic environment around him.


Agreed. If he starts slowing fwd speed, watch out.
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3048. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


How do I know these things?


You are descendant from Yoda.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
TAFB also at T3.0. Good to see the fix file updating in a timely matter.

AL, 05, 201208032345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1390N, 6470W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
i have noted that Ernesto has really slowed down some today i say its still moveing about 15 mph or so but not has fast has be for
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
3045. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles shifted north with Ernesto, more realistic-looking, though the bunch going into Florida look too far east to me.



How do I know these things?
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Quoting DataNerd:



Tops are cooling now but I think you may be on to something. Lets see what happens.


cooling means intensifying
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3043. LargoFl
Quoting alcomat:
keep wishing !! youll never give up !!!! Duh !!!!
..is I-95 near you?..use it..north
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Why do people come to this blog? For info and entertainment. Posts like the one you referenced provides the latter. We clear here?
Great answer!!!!!,this is a weather blog and we really appreciate when people put graphics and information about a tropical system,you are right we come here for the latest information and to have fun,because we are weather aficionados!!.
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3041. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
well i guess we will get drenched during our trip to florida, but I never experienced tropical storm like that so it will be a new experience for me, thanks you for your help too :)
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SAB remains the same for 90L.

04/0000 UTC 13.3N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32254
3038. LargoFl
Quoting Astrometeor:


Since there is a huge, powerful high pressure in Texas, how would Ernesto go there. I remember Don being destroyed off the face of the Earth.
..there was a powerful high in the gulf too..its not there anymore, things change and for ernesto we are talking mid next week,maybe even friday or later if it slows down
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most are too far south and others are too far north...

Oy vey...


Just no pleasing you huh? :)
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if everything comes together
i expect 05l to become
a major hurricane in 36 hrs from now
a possible cat 4 as it passes and enters
the gulf via yuctan channel



Tops are cooling now but I think you may be on to something. Lets see what happens.
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Eyewall maybe forming with Ernesto?

Link
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3033. RickWPB
Here's a good link for satellite / radar images of the Atlantic. It's hosted by the SFWMD (South FL Water Mgmnt District). They put a red line showing the exact center of 'the cone of uncertainty' instead of the cone itself.

Link

sent from iPad
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3032. ackee
Earnesto look like MIGHT be stonger at 11PM
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Ernesto has another slight hurdle period to go at around 68W with that weak ULL and dry air ahead of it (200mb chart below). However, if the center of the low is under the current ball of convection, and not on the leading edge of the storm, you can see on the WV loop that it is also developing a moisture shield out in front it so dry air entrainment is becoming less of a concern (WV Loop below).

Sheer and forward speed are looking like the only two significant factors over the next 48 hours but Ernesto is starting to control the synoptic environment around him.

200mb ULL

Link

WV Loop

Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Ernesto is looking much better tonight. But you can see in this sat loop the huge dry pockets of air in front of him. He still has some hurdles that will keep him from R.I.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.....gee this is getting scary, i hope the local mets in texas etc are warning folks about preparing, this may well get very ugly


Since there is a huge, powerful high pressure in Texas, how would Ernesto go there. I remember Don being destroyed off the face of the Earth.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z GFS Ensemble tracks



Most are too far south and others are too far north...

Oy vey...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32254
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ernesto is breathing now!

hey stormpetrol are you ready
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Right now the majority of models believe Ernesto will be a weak system when it passes near Jamaica and therefore continues it west into the Yucatan. However, if Ernesto makes it through tomorrow a 50+ mph TS, things will get interesting on Sunday when it moves into a much more favorable environment. My belief is that Ernesto will pass just south of Jamaica as a Cat 1 Hurricane and he will be strong enough to feel the weakness in the ridge. This will take it very near the Isle of Youth and western Cuba and then into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 2. After that we will have to wait and see. My guess is anywhere from Fl Panhandle to Texas as ultimate landfall.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
You can add Levi to that mix. ;)

He told me that 91L was way too fat a wave to likely amount to anything. The amplitude made it too big to have a chance at development.

He also said that he expected the increasing El Nino would likely kill Ernesto as it approaches the central Caribbean. Fat chance of that, I suspect.

Don't get me wrong, I still like and appreciate his well thought out input, but the giants tend to make their own weather from the get go, as if destiny were theirs.

Based upon my experience watching these systems in the Eastern Caribbean, better known as the "grave yard," those that do well here, almost without exception go on to become monsters. The reason is simple, if conditions are that favorable in this region, they usually only get better as they travel further west.

The caveat I would like to add to this is for Central America and/or Mexico, because typically the monsters that do well in the graveyard also tend to go more west than northwest. Although I'm sure to hear of exceptions to this rudimentary observation.

Are you really going to rip someone's forecasts?

It's unnecessary and I've yet to see you put out a better forecast.

I agree ego can be a problem on here, but this debate stemmed from a conflicting ideas on how the environment would effect the storm, not from chest-thumping egos.
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18Z GFS Ensemble tracks


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
3022. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Amateur answer:

TropicalDepressionSix :: NTO-SantoAntao :: BVR-Brava :: BQE-Bubaque

11.5n17.8w - 11.7n20.0w - 12.0n21.7w - 12.2n23.1w - 12.5n24.5w - 12.9n25.9w - 13.5n27.2w
91L :: HAV-Havana :: MIA-Miami :: FPO-GrandBahama

22.0n76.5w - 22.6n77.1w - 23.3n77.8w - 24.0n78.5w - 25.1n78.9w
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amateur question, when the new predicted trajectory map for 91L will be out?
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3019. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
..gee that last one is a very scary picture
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3018. fsumet
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, pressure went up, winds are the same.

AL, 05, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 138N, 648W, 45, 1003, TS,


It is also .1 south and .7 west of 5 PM position.
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Quoting wxmobilejim:


What does this mean?



Strength of the storm. Chart
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
.
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Quoting victoria780:
why do people list this stuff when a any egghead can look it up.



Why do people come to this blog? For info and entertainment. Posts like the one you referenced provides the latter. We clear here?
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Quoting mcluvincane:



Slim to none chance 1900

I wouldn't quite say that. While I am of the opinion that Ernesto is fine, the center does appear to be on the western half of the CDO, so the possibility is there.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles shifted north with Ernesto, more realistic-looking, though the bunch going into Florida look too far east to me.

if you take the consensus, that would be Texas.. Levi will the conditions in the gulf be better than the one's ernesto is experiencing now?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
3011. LargoFl
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles shifted north with Ernesto, more realistic-looking, though the bunch going into Florida look too far east to me.

.....gee this is getting scary, i hope the local mets in texas etc are warning folks about preparing, this may well get very ugly
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3010. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Lol, pressure went up, winds are the same.

AL, 05, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 138N, 648W, 45, 1003, TS,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
00Z Best Track keeps Ernesto at 50 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32254
Quoting stormchaser19:


55-60 mph
Ernesto looks like it could be at 60-mph by 11 PM.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.