Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ouch, harsh.

ATCF file change from TD to DB.

They're probably getting ready to renumber. It didn't dramatically weaken or else they would have put it back at LO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
3106. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912
Guess whats no longer a TD


AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Raise your hand if you are confused.
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Ouch, harsh.

ATCF file change from TD to DB.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TAFB gave 90L a T2.0.

AL, 90, 201208032345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 2760W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
3101. pottery
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're now looking at Tropical Depression 6


Oh boy........,.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




what dos this mean dos this mean DOOM?


N/A N/A N/A?

LOL, that's what I thought.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
3099. Gearsts
Tornado than pass over my house in Aguadilla on august 1 leaving the guerrero area without power for 38 hours and taking down a 100year old Ceiba tree in my house.Sorry for my bad inglish but i just had to say something and i have never experienced 1 like this ever!Link
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Koritheman was predicting a Western Louisiana landfall last night I believe. With the guidance split, this is still a possibility too. Lots to ponder and even more changes to come; as always this far out.




Oh, sure. The Vegas odds have to be jumping. Let's see? Throw a dart? Lower Mud Lake, Louisiana. Port Arthur to Pensacola.

But it might fizzle. NOT! ;) He not gonna be wearing any sombreros either, at least not down in Costa Rica or Honduras, imo.
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3097. SLU
956

WHXX01 KWBC 040055

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0055 UTC SAT AUG 4 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120804 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000 120805 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 27.2W 14.7N 30.0W 15.4N 32.7W 15.7N 35.4W

BAMD 13.5N 27.2W 14.6N 29.8W 15.6N 32.2W 16.4N 34.5W

BAMM 13.5N 27.2W 14.8N 29.7W 15.7N 32.1W 16.5N 34.6W

LBAR 13.5N 27.2W 14.6N 30.2W 15.8N 33.4W 16.7N 36.6W

SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120806 0000 120807 0000 120808 0000 120809 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 38.0W 16.4N 44.0W 18.3N 50.8W 21.1N 56.7W

BAMD 17.2N 36.7W 18.9N 41.6W 22.1N 46.2W 25.3N 47.6W

BAMM 17.1N 37.2W 18.7N 43.2W 21.8N 49.4W 26.1N 53.1W

LBAR 17.4N 39.5W 18.9N 44.7W 21.4N 48.7W .0N .0W

SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 60KTS 66KTS

DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 60KTS 66KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 24.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 21.7W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

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3096. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
My love is exceeding the limit
Red-eyed and fevered with the hum of the miles
Distance and longing, my thoughts do collide
Should I rest for a while, on the side
Your love is cradled in knowing
Eyes in the mirror, still expecting they'll come
Sensing to well, when the journey is done
There is no turning back, no There is no turning back, on the road.



One of my favorites...There all my favorites..:)..Touch of the mean green in the middle.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20509
?

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614

Ernesto will have to slow down as others have noted for it to really have any chance of maintaining its strength. I think tomorrow is a big day for this storm one way or another, as it is approaching a noticeable area in the central carribean of sinking air (dry slot). I also think that at the moment it is too far to the south to get influenced by a weakness in the ridge forecast in a few days over the southeast. If Ernesto can maintain or increase its intensity tomorrow, then all bets are off and we could be dealing with a major hurricane toward the latter part of next week.Still a lot to watch, but I think Ernesto's future is largely dependent on tomorrow's outcome.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're talking about 91L, not 90L.


Thank You.........Forgot the actual number with all the excitement today...........I corrected the comment.
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3092. cg2916
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD


TD 6 says "Hello, World!".
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I doubt it. The renum to TD06 should take place in the next few minutes...



ok
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I don't see a renumber on 90L...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
You're now looking at Tropical Depression 6

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Wait for a renumber before calling it TD6, but the latest ATCF run for 90L says TD.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New SHIPS run on Ernesto is in.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 64 69 77 83 86 91 92 92

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 8 2 10 1 10 3 8 N/A N/A N/A

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)




what dos this mean dos this mean DOOM?


N/A N/A N/A?
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WOW up to 91 knots
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As for 90L, it is having a much harder time at the moment. It is caught in a squeeze play between the ULL out in the Central Atlantic (that was keeping Ernesto is more check earlier) and the Tutt Cell to the NW which is dropping down 20-30 knots of sheer where it wants to go.

Current CIMSS sheer chart:

Link

It's getting sheered to death.....I would not expect any progress above the current 20% at this rate anytime in the near future for 90L.

You're talking about 91L, not 90L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
Hello TD6

What, sever not found message, not good.
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3082. pottery
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Hey, Pottery! Man, you're supposed to be keeping the door closed down there!!!! What's up with that, slacker! ;)

Hey there Stranger !
Sorry about the door.....

But you know how it is with unwelcome guests.
Had to open up just long enough to throw him out.
He's your problem now.

:):))
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i would give this about 15 ms or so too comfrom this or they made have made a mistake
I doubt it. The renum to TD06 should take place in the next few minutes.. We'll see, though; you may be right.
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New SHIPS run on Ernesto is in.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 64 69 77 83 86 91 92 92

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 8 2 10 1 10 3 8 N/A N/A N/A

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting LargoFl:


Now 90L/TD/ pre-Florence could become a biggun...
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Link


check this out notice anything strange? lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bingo.




i would give this about 15 ms or so too comfrom this or they made have made a mistake
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Koritheman was predicting a Western Louisiana landfall last night I believe. With the guidance split, this is still a possibility too. Lots to ponder and even more changes to come; as always this far out.
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look behind TD 6 another monster wave
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here's the fix file.
Thanks
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As for 91L, it is having a much harder time at the moment. It is caught in a squeeze play between the ULL out in the Central Atlantic (that was keeping Ernesto in more check earlier) and the Tutt Cell to the NW which is dropping down 20-30 knots of sheer where it wants to go.

Current CIMSS sheer chart:

Link

It's getting sheered to death.....I would not expect any progress above the current 20% at this rate anytime in the near future for 90L.
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3072. bwi
This buoy at 16n 67.5w should be interesting to watch tonight. Pretty placid there now.
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3071. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD
Bingo.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting pottery:
Greetings !

Ernesto.
Some occasional heavy rains with east, south, and south-east breezes today.
Temps only got to 86 max.
Looks like we dodged it again....

Looks pretty good right now, and seems to have slowed.
This one must have the NHC scratching their heads....


Hey, Pottery! Man, you're supposed to be keeping the door closed down there!!!! What's up with that, slacker? ;)


You didn't prune that Calabash tree this year????
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3068. SLU
04/0000 UTC 13.3N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 90L

Strange ....
1.5 is still good enough to call it a TD.
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.
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3066. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey Pottery.Sounds like a summer thunderstorm.Lol.

Not much more than that, for true.
But I aint complainin'.....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody welcome Tropical Depression Six.
Finally damm..err danged...
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AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Can you post the link for TAFB estimates please?

Don't feel like hunting through the ftp site on my phone lol
Here's the fix file.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Do you just come on the blog to complain? ;)
That was meant to be a joke lol

I know Gro was joking too
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Everybody welcome Tropical Depression Six.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
Quoting Phoenix30:
Sugarland Texas reporting here! I would welcome lots of rain, not a whole lot of wind. :D

Either way Monday im going to be doing my Hurricane shopping.
No do it over the weekend.Do it as soon as possible so you won't be caught in the crowed.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB also at T3.0. Good to see the fix file updating in a timely matter.

AL, 05, 201208032345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1390N, 6470W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,
Can you post the link for TAFB estimates please?

Don't feel like hunting through the ftp site on my phone lol
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Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles shifted north with Ernesto, more realistic-looking, though the bunch going into Florida look too far east to me.



Yep. Basically, a weaker Ernesto will head towards TexMex. But a strong Ernesto will head towards LA/MS/FL panhandle area.

I'm leaning towards the TexMex scenario. I just don't see Ernesto getting as strong as people on this blog are making him out to be.
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings !

Ernesto.
Some occasional heavy rains with east, south, and south-east breezes today.
Temps only got to 86 max.
Looks like we dodged it again....

Looks pretty good right now, and seems to have slowed.
This one must have the NHC scratching their heads....
Hey Pottery.Sounds like a summer thunderstorm.Lol.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.