Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Between 91L...Ernesto...and Florence...I am exhausted trying to write my daily detailed discussion of the Atlantic tropics...but I finished it an hour ago. It was very hard to write while all 3 features have been constantly changing. This is the hardest blog post I ever had to write....but I do it because of bloggers like you that want to learn...

To make things worse...all 3 systems continue to be changing and confusing just after I finish writing....arrghhh. Waiting till this afternoon before doing a special blog update because I want to see a definitive trends in these 3 systems before recalling any statements I made in my new post.
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Quoting stormcraig:
like i said long time lurker (at least 8 yrs) as for you wishcasters wanting something to come your way you go thru 3 storms in 6 weeks and go without power for a total of 7 weeks then lets see if you still wish for it. i love weather and its power but never want to go thru that again . even well supplied with a generator it was still hell on earth


Yes I don't want these storms coming anywhere near me either.
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New guy here, what is the difference between the ensemble models and the computer models?
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5353. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Noted, but here is my point: if remote intensity estimates stay relatively flat, do you strengthen Ernesto based on sustained organization from satellite, or do you keep intensity the same due to the data from the last recon pass?


What a unique dilema. Probably at this point everyone is so baffled that they will keep the intensity the same until the next recon mission. We have continuous 6-hourly fixes going now.
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like i said long time lurker (at least 8 yrs) as for you wishcasters wanting something to come your way you go thru 3 storms in 6 weeks and go without power for a total of 7 weeks then lets see if you still wish for it. i love weather and its power but never want to go thru that again . even well supplied with a generator it was still hell on earth
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
91L is doing good on Visible Loop
Link


The NHC and Local mets, TB area, keep saying 91 (a tropical wave) is heading across the state, but I don't see any movement west. Do you? In fact, 91 seems to be heading north.
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Why is this maybe hurricane

But NHC why??
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Here you can see how after the first convec blowup, you lose track of the center and are led the think it is in the center of the convection when it was out west all along, and the new convection blowup at the end most likely where the center really is.

Interesting. Judging from the way Ernesto blew up last night, the new burst of convection is just the beginning. Expect the spiral bands to the east to blow up with convection later today.
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Look back 24 hours and the storms appearance was horrendous.
I think Ernesto has made great strides considering it just made it through the eastern carribean where every storm failed the past few years.
The size of the storm has grown exponentially as well.
Considering it's fast pace all of the above is even more striking.
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i dont think this is truly representative...
I think it was fooled by the symettrical satellite representation before, and now is recorrecting as the storm repositions is clouds...

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting Patrap:


Thus the words from Avila in the Disco.

Noted, but here is my point: if remote intensity estimates stay relatively flat, do you strengthen Ernesto based on sustained organization from satellite, or do you keep intensity the same due to the data from the last recon pass?
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ernesto looks way better than yesterday and is getting a hurricane structure look to me.
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5344. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting stormcraig:
thanks Tazmanian how about Ernesto chances for florida thanks again


Ernesto going too FL? 0% ch more like from TX to AL needs too watch
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5342. 900MB
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Here you can see how after the first convec blowup, you lose track of the center and are led the think it is in the center of the convection when it was out west all along, and the new convection blowup at the end most likely where the center really is.


I'm with you Georgia.

Also, I think after a couple more rotations this thing will be on fire.
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5341. Patrap
TFP's and ZOOM are active

Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
While Ernesto has not gotten stronger wind speed wise you cant say she hasnt gotten stronger, her wind field has expanded substantially. Over 100 mile TS wind radius for a 50 mph storm? thats huge.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
why did the two modeles moving its more north


Cause they are more accurately forecasting the position of the Bermuda ridge. But even they are a bit too far west.
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thanks Tazmanian how about Ernesto chances for florida thanks again
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All images upon clicking will open in a new window.


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Quoting reedzone:


Pat you can't leave out the REED Model run... It just finished running ;)
img src="Photobucket">

I agree strongly with your track.
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What used to be the best place on the internet to get insider insight on early trends of storm expectations has turned into a cyber stadium full of cheerwishers whose emotions ebb and flow on NHC bulletins.

These 6 hour mood swings do not put this site in the best light.
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5334. Patrap
Quoting 1900hurricane:

According to ADT, he should already be at hurricane strength with a T# of 4.0, but he obviously is not. It is very possible that Ernesto will be able to strengthen, even with a marginal drop from ADT since they found the intensity so low.


Thus the words from Avila in the Disco.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
5333. yqt1001
AMSUB pass from an hour or two ago. Clearly can see the dry air entrainment, it completely destroyed the entire northern half of the storm.

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5332. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

06L/TD/XX/CX
MARK
16n/30w
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Quoting Patrap:


Not while the ADT Numbers by Appearance give Higher T#'s as they contribute as well.

According to ADT, he should already be at hurricane strength with a T# of 4.0, but he obviously is not. It is very possible that Ernesto will be able to strengthen, even with a marginal drop from ADT since they found the intensity so low.
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5330. Patrap
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Those early cycle dynamics are quite interesting. They appear to be quite a bit further north than the other stuff.



The 18Z run end lines may reach some coastal Locations, depending on angles and such.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting stormcraig:
long time lurker first time poster can someone tell me the chances that the weak low pressure system to the east of Florida might develop after it crosses florida or even before i am located about 50 miles north of Tampa in citrus county and already got hammered by Debbie and after 2004 when we had 3 storms to hit us in 6 weeks i am worried about a repeat this year




the ch of EX 91L fourming is 0%
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5328. Gearsts
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could we just ignore him? He's been circumnavigating bans and causes trouble.
Sure.
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5327. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning pat did NHC sent out any G-IV scouts on recon yet



Morn keep,


None that we can see in the POD's here
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
The NHC likes the UKMET model as stated in the last advisory. so watch to see if that flips back North...
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Are these readings and location on Ernesto close to what GFS and ECMWF have been showing ? Are the global models on to something that other models and some people aren't seeing ?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could we just ignore him? He's been circumnavigating bans and causes trouble.




thank you for that post teddy
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long time lurker first time poster can someone tell me the chances that the weak low pressure system to the east of Florida might develop after it crosses florida or even before i am located about 50 miles north of Tampa in citrus county and already got hammered by Debbie and after 2004 when we had 3 storms to hit us in 6 weeks i am worried about a repeat this year
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts



Pat you can't leave out the REED Model run... It just finished running ;)
img src="Photobucket">
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Quoting Gearsts:
It wont be trust me on that.


Could we just ignore him? He's been circumnavigating bans and causes trouble.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Here you can see how after the first convec blowup, you lose track of the center and are led the think it is in the center of the convection when it was out west all along, and the new convection blowup at the end most likely where the center really is.



Over all the circulation is improving, but the dry air in the center is just making it suck in terms of wind and rains, which should get fixed late evening or over night tonight.

Not that big a deal right now anyway.

I'm going to do some yard work or something. This is getting boring and pointless for like the next day...
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5319. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:44Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 29

14:45:00Z 15.633N 68.050W 842.7 mb

(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,592 meters
(~ 5,223 feet) 1012.6 mb
(~ 29.90 inHg) - From 120° at 48 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 55.2 mph) 16.7°C
(~ 62.1°F) 9.6°C
(~ 49.3°F) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 38.4 knots (~ 44.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 80.0%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations


Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic


At 14:35:30Z (first observation), the observation was 212 miles (341 km) to the SSW (205°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 14:45:00Z (last observation), the observation was 231 miles (372 km) to the SSE (148°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
morning pat did NHC sent out any G-IV scouts on recon yet
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Here you can see how after the first convec blowup, you lose track of the center and are led the think it is in the center of the convection when it was out west all along, and the new convection blowup at the end most likely where the center really is.
Excellent observation, and I agree with you.
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5317. Patrap
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
If I were a more sophisticated model...


I'd be sleeping still n Rio...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
5316. MZT
Levi was stepping out on the ledge last night, disagreeing with the NHC, and was skepitcal about the pace of development. He's gotta watch out for hubris, though - usually the NHC is on point and a divirgent analysis gets smacked down.
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5315. Patrap
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 14:19:40 N Lon : 68:30:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 989.5mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.5 3.3

Center Temp : -63.8C Cloud Region Temp : -60.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 66km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.4 degrees



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
If I were a more sophisticated model...
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Quoting GetReal:
Buzzaw appearance.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
5312. Patrap
Quoting 1900hurricane:
The thing that has me concerned about this new intensity is that if Ernesto goes through a strengthening episode, the NHC will probably lowball the intensity estimate due to the weaker conditions found by recon.


Not while the ADT Numbers by Appearance give Higher T#'s as they contribute as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
5311. Patrap

Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
91L is doing good on Visible Loop
Link




its not 91L any more the nhc drop it
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The thing that has me concerned about this new intensity is that if Ernesto goes through a strengthening episode, the NHC will probably lowball the intensity estimate due to the weaker conditions found by recon.
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5307. GetReal
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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