Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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YES!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
So do we have a TD at 11?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4664
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
So do we have a TD at 11?



nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
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Quoting pottery:

Ah. Thanks!
So do we have a TD at 11?
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Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



That's looking familiar.

I figure in two days the five day cone may be somewhere on U.S. soil or very close anyway.


Hopefully, the models are a lot more reliable with ths one than Danielle.

This seems a much simpler scenario so far anyway, because the first 3 or 4 days of the track seems pretty obvious.
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Seriously. What is up with the GFS and its southern bias?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32245
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah; they just open a new file with the cyclone's number, which hasn't occurred with 90L yet.


They at least did a forecast track (new SHIPS)
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Quoting Grothar:


LOL. I deserved that one. Just as long as I don't look like him. It's not easy being green.

Lol...or dating a pig...
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Good evening maybe instead of a td they will put at ts anyways I think florence will either way.
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3148. pottery
Quoting 1900hurricane:

A defensive back.



Oh you mean in meteorology? Disturbance. :P

Ah. Thanks!
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Not good!!!!!!


You're right. Not good at all.
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3146. alcomat
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Why make this statement after that comment?

No one other than the obvious troll has even said anything about a storm going to Florida. Keep your diatribe to yourself or at least use it when it is warranted
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Quoting pottery:

What's DB ?
Sorry it looks like they changed it back to disturbance.
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Right now the majority of models believe Ernesto will be a weak system when it passes near Jamaica and therefore continues it west into the Yucatan. However, if Ernesto makes it through tomorrow a 50+ mph TS, things will get interesting on Sunday when it moves into a much more favorable environment. My belief is that Ernesto will pass just south of Jamaica as a Cat 1 Hurricane and he will be strong enough to feel the weakness in the ridge. This will take it very near the Isle of Youth and western Cuba and then into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 2. After that we will have to wait and see. My guess is anywhere from Fl Panhandle to Texas as ultimate landfall.
GOOD REPORT.THE WEAKER FURTHER WEST ,THE STRONGER FURTHER NORTH.REMEMBER THE MODELS RIGHT NOW EXPECT A WEAKER STORM.WAIT TILL MORNING
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

A defensive back.



Oh you mean in meteorology? Disturbance. :P


LOL!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They're probably getting ready to renumber. It didn't dramatically weaken or else they would have put it back at LO.
Whats DB mean? Is it a TD?
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3140. pottery
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Haha! Hear ya. You must've forgot to prune that calabash tree! Dadgummit! Can't find dependable help anymore. ;)

LMAO to that!
Especially the dependable help part.
Getting to the point where I can't even help myself.

Showers all day long. Cisterns are Happy. Mildew is flourishing.
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FL Hurricane
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4664
Quoting wxchaser97:
What, yeah sure: 30, 1009, DB,
something not right




some in is not right here


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
3137. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Hi Drus.
Things are suddenly happening.
Considering we are in the downward phase of the MJO, things are busy. When the MJO upward phase arrives, there may be some bigtime storms brewing. We will see.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
Not good!!!!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4664
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC has not done a renumber on the last two storms, 04 and 05. Must not be a strick requirement.
Yeah; they just open a new file with the cyclone's number, which hasn't occurred with 90L yet.
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TD 6 may go to S FL!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4664
Quoting txtwister78:

Ernesto will have to slow down as others have noted for it to really have any chance of maintaining its strength. I think tomorrow is a big day for this storm one way or another, as it is approaching a noticeable area in the central carribean of sinking air (dry slot). I also think that at the moment it is too far to the south to get influenced by a weakness in the ridge forecast in a few days over the southeast. If Ernesto can maintain or increase its intensity tomorrow, then all bets are off and we could be dealing with a major hurricane toward the latter part of next week.Still a lot to watch, but I think Ernesto's future is largely dependent on tomorrow's outcome.


+1. Excellent point. Tomorrow and Sunday will tell us A LOT!!!
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Gonna take a break until the 11:00 pm update. Enjoy the show and see Yall later.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9205
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/65.01W




wow that is some new intensification now isn't it. Just look at those thunderstorms explode.
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What, yeah sure: 30, 1009, DB,
something not right
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NHC has not done a renumber on the last two storms, 04 and 05. Must not be a strick requirement.
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3126. j2008
Guys atcf is just trolling the blog. LOL!! I'm sure we have TD 6.
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Quoting pottery:

What's DB ?

A defensive back.



Oh you mean in meteorology? Disturbance. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Raise your hand if you are confused.


Lol mine is raised 1900
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3122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/65.01W


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54259
Quoting pottery:

Hey there Stranger !
Sorry about the door.....

But you know how it is with unwelcome guests.
Had to open up just long enough to throw him out.
He's your problem now.

:):))


Haha! Hear ya. You must've forgot to prune that calabash tree! Dadgummit! Can't find dependable help anymore. ;)
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3120. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ouch, harsh.

ATCF file change from TD to DB.

What's DB ?
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00Z models for ernesto has shifted N
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I don't see why they're not calling it TD6. It has increased in organization as the TAFB just came in with a 2.0.
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That's likely a T.D even if the file doesn't show it..
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There's no reason not to renumber at this point. And I don't think the pressure jumped 3 millibars...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32245
Pressure went up 3mb too. LOLOLOLOL!
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I wonder how many more storms we will get out of this cluster between now and Sept 1st?.....That wave behind TD6 getting ready to exit the coast later on looks pretty mean too............... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9205
3113. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ouch, harsh.

ATCF file change from TD to DB.


With an increase of pressure.

1006mb to 1009mb

XD
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3112. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
One of my favorites...There all my favorites..:)..Touch of the mean green in the middle.

Hi Drus.
Things are suddenly happening.
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i new they made a mistake


AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
3110. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


You are descendant from Yoda.


LOL. I deserved that one. Just as long as I don't look like him. It's not easy being green.
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DID you see it going N!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4664
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
?

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB
LOL!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ouch, harsh.

ATCF file change from TD to DB.

They're probably getting ready to renumber. It didn't dramatically weaken or else they would have put it back at LO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32245

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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