Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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This blog will be in overdrive once Ernesto is closer to Gulf of Mexico... just saying.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree. Warm waters, a solid moisture envelope, and light upper level winds have allowed Ernesto to defy forecasts from both the global models and us humans. Trade winds were accelerating into the Caribbean but when Ernesto's low pressure moves into the eastern Caribbean, it becomes the focus for the stronger winds, actually tightening up and strengthening it's circulation.
Ur pretty smart kid! :)
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does galveston look like it is in its path
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3202. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting hurricanehanna:
so is 91L going to keep Ernesto on a more Westerly track once it enters the Caribbean ?

Well one, Ernesto is already in the East Caribbean, lol. Second, if anything, Invest 91L will erode the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and help Ernesto move more poleward.
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I just notice on 91L that convention starting to fire up south east of Andros Island,and you can see some curvature in the clouds,just wondering if 91L is getting better organized,this is a huge system,but checking the last satellite frames in my opinion something is going on there,any thoughts about this observation?,thank you!.
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so is 91L going to keep Ernesto on a more Westerly track once it enters the Caribbean ?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



read back a few commets and you no why



they made a mistake
I am amd I dont think they want to issue advisories. But could the NHC issue one anyway?
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
91L acting as a weakness down the road should Ernesto continue to intensify is not completely out of the realm of possibilities. Interesting synoptic set-up evolving...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
GUYS THERE IS NO TD 6
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3193. cg2916
Why on earth did they downgrade 90L from a LO to a DB?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From Tropical Tidbits of FB
ATCF says we should have Tropical Depression #6 in the eastern Atlantic at the 11pm EST advisory. Right now this system is not a threat to any landmasses and can be safely "ignored" while we deal with Ernesto. Welcome to August.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD


Yea I agree with them. It sure looks like at least a TD. Oh and nice bit of heavy thunderstorms over Africa too. If it holds together we might have 92L in a day or so.
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Ernesto looking better all the time!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If you missed it earlier (easy thing to do when the blog is in hyperdrive) I wrote a quick blog with my thoughts on the Atlantic... I won't be hear until Monday so my thoughts for the weekend are in here.

Link


Nice blog!
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3188. hydrus
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT Friday Aug 03 2012


Valid 051200z - 061200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of the
northeast/mid-Atlantic states to Ohio/Tennessee valleys...


..much of the northeast/mid-Atlantic states and Ohio/Tennessee valleys...
The primary deep convective potential on Sunday will be tied to the
east-northeastward advancement of a potent upper trough...from the
Great Lakes region early Sunday to Quebec/northern New England by
early Monday. Broad cyclonic flow aloft with a moderately strong
belt of westerlies will overspread much of the region...but
especially the upper Ohio Valley/northeast states into New England
through Sunday night.


While it is conceivable that early day thunderstorms and remnant outflows
could be factors...an increase/intensification of thunderstorms otherwise
seems probable by early afternoon along/ahead of a cold front
including portions of New York/PA and other parts of the upper Ohio Valley
to the Tennessee Valley. Relatively high moisture content...steepening low
level lapse rates...and moderate buoyancy /1000-3000 j per kg
SBCAPE/ will account for strong/sustained storms within a weak to
moderate vertical shear environment. Multicells/line segments are
likely with damaging winds as the primary overall hazard...but some
supercells may be possible especially across portions of NY/PA.
Several organized systems/clusters may ultimately evolve by late
afternoon/early evening.


Farther south/southwest...within a weaker shear but more unstable
pre-frontal regime...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tennessee
Valley/mid-south and perhaps other parts of the southeast states.


..portions of Oregon and northern California/northwest Nevada...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase across the region into
Sunday...as moisture/forcing for ascent increases in tandem with a
northeastward moving upper trough. As at least isolated storms
diurnally increase Sunday afternoon/early evening...a modest
increase in moisture/vertical shear along with steep lapse rates may
account for some strong/potentially severe thunderstorms capable of
wind/hail.


.Guyer.. 08/03/2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
3187. LargoFl
...............................................wo w look at this line of storms
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From Tropical Tidbits of FB
ATCF says we should have Tropical Depression #6 in the eastern Atlantic at the 11pm EST advisory. Right now this system is not a threat to any landmasses and can be safely "ignored" while we deal with Ernesto. Welcome to August.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD


I see DB instead of TD
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I think the area of low pressure to the Northwest of Ernesto is actually being more conducive for strenghening of Ernesto albeit for the shear.High pressure may be forming over the system to help ventilate it.
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If 90L is not a tropical depression already than I guess I'll eat crow because it sure looks like at least that.

Link
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From Tropical Tidbits of FB
ATCF says we should have Tropical Depression #6 in the eastern Atlantic at the 11pm EST advisory. Right now this system is not a threat to any landmasses and can be safely "ignored" while we deal with Ernesto. Welcome to August.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD



we do NOT have TD 6 they made a mistake

this is the info we have right now on 90L

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB,
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AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ

WHY 90L is down from LO to DB????
That looks like a TD now...

I just came from work... and found this out
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3180. TXCWC
Coming into much better consunsus through day 5 (even the GFS is in better agreement with the rest through this period)looks like NHC has had a very good handle on this so far - biggest question will continue to be where from there?

Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They at least did a forecast track (new SHIPS)
Noticed that; blog won't be happy if there's no advisory at 11p.m LOL.

Quoting TomTaylor:
I got another question for you, do you know what those other numbers represent?
I'd recommend asking Nrt what those numbers represent. I just know where to look for the T-number. :P
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
From Tropical Tidbits of FB
ATCF says we should have Tropical Depression #6 in the eastern Atlantic at the 11pm EST advisory. Right now this system is not a threat to any landmasses and can be safely "ignored" while we deal with Ernesto. Welcome to August.

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1006, TD
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Link
Thanks nrt!
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so I thought I'd pop in...seeing as the NHC took out their box of colors...I'm seeing a few familiar peeps
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What the h*** is going on with the computer systems this season? Models, planes, and now the renumbers... *SMH*
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3174. pottery
Quoting Grothar:






They probably knew we were on the blog and did it to get us going. I can here them laughing now.

Yep!
I can smell the Adrenalin from here.....
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If you missed it earlier (easy thing to do when the blog is in hyperdrive) I wrote a quick blog with my thoughts on the Atlantic... I won't be hear until Monday so my thoughts for the weekend are in here.

Link
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I got another question for you, do you know what those other numbers represent?



Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Quoting mobileshadow:


Most recent? trend back west?
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3169. TXCWC
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I don't see why they're not calling it TD6. It has increased in organization as the TAFB just came in with a 2.0.


Because the blog would officially go into meltdown mode with 2 official storms in the Atlantic and they do not want this to happen :)
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seriously. What is up with the GFS and its southern bias?



I do think this will track mostly west over the next few days and not "curve" out to sea until later, if it does

The word in the quotes was just for you TA13 lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting victoria780:
GOOD REPORT.THE WEAKER FURTHER WEST ,THE STRONGER FURTHER NORTH.REMEMBER THE MODELS RIGHT NOW EXPECT A WEAKER STORM.WAIT TILL MORNING
Yeah I agree with coffeecrusader as well, a stronger storm likely takes the path of least resistance into a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge and a weaker storm on a more WNW path towards the Yucatan and eventually into South Texas. So right now the Panhandle to South Texas needs to keep an eye on Ernesto as well as Jamaica and the Cayman Islands since they will feel the effects first.
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3166. Grothar
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sorry it looks like they changed it back to disturbance.






They probably knew we were on the blog and did it to get us going. I can here them laughing now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB gave 90L a T2.0.

AL, 90, 201208032345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 2760W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T,
I got another question for you, do you know what those other numbers represent?
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
y not what is going on?!



read back a few commets and you no why



they made a mistake
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Not good!!!!!!


Whats not good? Not sure what to make of your posts rather then alarming people for no reason. As i stated a few hrs ago there is a huge upper level trough in the middle of the Atl that won't allow anything except a very low amplitude wave (such as what was Ernesto) to make it past 55-60W.

Sit back and enjoy the rainy weekend.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
YES!!!!!!!!!!!



no we do not have a TD at 11p
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FL Hurricane
Both the GFDL and HWRF degenerate it; hence the zonal track. If 90L intensifies, it's headed out to sea. ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3160. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FL Hurricane
..there is the chance this can just be a fish spinner, way too early yet to tell
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
3159. pottery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seriously. What is up with the GFS and its southern bias?


How is the High looking?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop
y not what is going on?!
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
YES!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
So do we have a TD at 11?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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