Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Regarding 90L:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 26.1W TO 13.6N 34.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 26.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 032200Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IM-
AGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADU-
ALLY IMPROVING UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
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3256. cg2916
Ernesto has improved so much from last night.

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Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think 91L could become Gordon tomorrow?
Nope.
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3254. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto has proven he can strengthen in the East Caribbean, and it is likely that he will do so as he crosses the Central Caribbean as well. A stronger storm will tend to move more north. Once in the NW Caribbean, I still see this undergoing rapid, or even explosive, intensification and Ernesto may be a major hurricane entering the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.
Ernesto will be a large and intense storm. I will not say how strong, people will think I am a doomcaster, which I am not. I just ran across this, the storm that beat the crap out of us while we still had blue tarps on what was left of our roofs from Charley..Cant forget Andrew.
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3253. TxLisa
Quoting washingtonian115:
No do it over the weekend.Do it as soon as possible so you won't be caught in the crowed.
So true!!! I waited in line for hours to purchase plywood for Hurricane Rita. Katrina was our wakeup call.
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This is very obviously a tropical depression. It would be ridiculous not to classify it at 11 pm EDT.



The renumber usually comes an hour and a half before the advisory time. Maybe they reverted it because it was too early?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
3251. bwi
Looking at the low-level clouds out in front of Ernesto on the sat loop just before sunset, it sort of looks like the storm is taking control of the low-level winds, with more of a N-S motion rather than E-W. So maybe the trade winds are being affected more by the approaching storm than the storm is being stretched forward by the low level winds. Just a thought.
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3250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
91L.INVEST
90L.INVEST
05L.ERNESTO

East Pacific
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
anyone think 91L could become Gordon tomorrow?
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Ernesto has really slow down right now or even stalled it i say is moveing at 10 or 15mph but there no way it is moveing like it was this AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114732
Quoting TomTaylor:
Got another question for you nrt, is there any difference between the designation "low" and "disturbance" for the atcf file? For example, invest 90l was first a disturbance, then it became a low, and now it is a disturbance again. Judging by the pressure readings, my guess is that "low" would be a slightly higher developed system than a "disturbance" but please correct me if I'm wrong.

AL, 90, 2012080212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 178W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 117N, 200W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 217W, 30, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 122N, 231W, 30, 1006, LO,
AL, 90, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 125N, 245W, 30, 1006, LO, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 129N, 259W, 30, 1006, LO, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB,


sorry for intervene...
yes, you're right..

this is how it goes... intensity wise

for an invest
DB
LO

then
TD
TS
HC
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3246. tkeith
Quoting hurricanehanna:


Heya tkeith!
just checkin in...good to see ya :)
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3245. pottery
Quoting presslord:
Any ridge humpin' goin' on in here?!

Next door down>>>>>>>>>>
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Quoting tkeith:
I see Ernesto has some of my nieghbors interested :)



Heya tkeith!
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Quoting cg2916:
If 91L were to develop or even just get stronger, how would it affect Ernesto?
91L will creates weakness that will get Ernesto to go more poleward if Ernesto is a strong storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto has proven he can strengthen in the East Caribbean, and it is likely that he will do so as he crosses the Central Caribbean as well. A stronger storm will tend to move more north. Once in the NW Caribbean, I still see this undergoing rapid, or even explosive, intensification and Ernesto may be a major hurricane entering the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.


exactly TA. I totally agree with you. I don't think I could have said anything more to add to what you said.
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3241. tkeith
Quoting presslord:
Any ridge humpin' goin' on in here?!
Not yet...but it's still early :)
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3240. pottery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto has proven he can strengthen in the East Caribbean, and it is likely that he will do so as he crosses the Central Caribbean as well. A stronger storm will tend to move more north. Once in the NW Caribbean, I still see this undergoing rapid, or even explosive, intensification and Ernesto may be a major hurricane entering the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.</em>

My thinking as well.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Surprising there's nobody in tropica talk/chat.
Jasoniscoolman was in there earlier at least 1 of his handles.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Link
Got another question for you nrt, is there any difference between the designation "low" and "disturbance" for the atcf file? For example, invest 90l was first a disturbance, then it became a low, and now it is a disturbance again. Judging by the pressure readings, my guess is that "low" would be a slightly higher developed system than a "disturbance" but please correct me if I'm wrong.

AL, 90, 2012080212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 178W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 117N, 200W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 217W, 30, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 122N, 231W, 30, 1006, LO,
AL, 90, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 125N, 245W, 30, 1006, LO, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 129N, 259W, 30, 1006, LO, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB,
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Going up to a Hurricane now
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
It's clear that the NHC was about to upgrade 90L but either they're simply not updating the ATCF file which would make no sense, or something came in that caused them to change their minds.


Any chance could already be a TS?
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Any ridge humpin' goin' on in here?!
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3234. LargoFl
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
820 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SWIFT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 815 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 65 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM APPLETON TO 8 MILES EAST OF
MADISON TO PROVIDENCE TO CANBY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MONTEVIDEO...
BENSON...
GRANITE FALLS...
APPLETON...
PROVIDENCE...
ST LEO...
MILAN...
HOLLOWAY...
BOYD...
WATSON...
BIG BEND CITY...
CLARKFIELD...
DANVERS...
SPRING CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!



LAT...LON 4480 9615 4520 9613 4522 9611 4524 9612
4541 9611 4541 9535 4496 9533 4479 9535
4459 9554 4459 9561 4462 9562 4462 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 268DEG 37KT 4526 9600 4498 9596
4482 9597 4469 9612
WIND...HAIL 65MPH <.75IN


SPD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912
3233. tkeith
Quoting hurricanehanna:

I should have said Western Caribbean lol Thanks for the explanation :)
I see Ernesto has some of my nieghbors interested :)

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3232. cg2916
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto has proven he can strengthen in the East Caribbean, and it is likely that he will do so as he crosses the Central Caribbean as well. A stronger storm will tend to move more north. Once in the NW Caribbean, I still see this undergoing rapid, or even explosive, intensification and Ernesto may be a major hurricane entering the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.


If Ernesto can improve like it did in the eastern Caribbean, I'd hate to see what the West Caribbean will do to it.
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Quoting Grothar:
I have to go take a nap. Too much excitement for me. I sure picked a bad day to quit Metamucil. Play nice and see you at 10:53 just in time for TropicalAnalyst to press the F8 button and get the report before anybody else. Poor guy doesn't know I get it 10 minutes before. Later boys and girls.


Sleep well. I just woke up. :)
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NHC WHY YOU NO ISSUE ADVISORIES!!!!
who has a picture about that???
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GFS doing a Andrew
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3228. cg2916
If 91L were to develop or even just get stronger, how would it affect Ernesto?
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Quoting floridaboy14:
i think the models should shift north because ernesto is stronger

If the GFS and ECMWF ever get the initialization right then they should.
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3226. hydrus
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well one, Ernesto is already in the East Caribbean, lol. Second, if anything, Invest 91L will erode the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and help Ernesto move more poleward.

I should have said Western Caribbean lol Thanks for the explanation :)
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


So what is your current thinking? It seems the models are converging on a Texas event but anywhere in the Western and Central gulf from Northern Mexico to MS/AL should watch this system as it all depends on strength...I would say my bullseye if i had to make one would be from Texas/Mexico border to Vermilion Bay

Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto has proven he can strengthen in the East Caribbean, and it is likely that he will do so as he crosses the Central Caribbean as well. A stronger storm will tend to move more north. Once in the NW Caribbean, I still see this undergoing rapid, or even explosive, intensification and Ernesto may be a major hurricane entering the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
3223. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
It's clear that the NHC was about to upgrade 90L but either they're simply not updating the ATCF file which would make no sense, or something came in that caused them to change their minds.


If the 3mb pressure drop is true, that's probably what caused the revision.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
This blog will be in overdrive once Ernesto is closer to Gulf of Mexico... just saying.


dont remind us. It was crazy with the 91L hype earlier. You couldn't post without another 100 posts going up a second.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
91L acting as a weakness down the road should Ernesto continue to intensify is not completely out of the realm of possibilities. Interesting synoptic set-up evolving...
How does this synoptic set-up stack up with past set-ups and what was the end result or is this a pattern you haven't seen before?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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I'm curious to see how Ernesto handles the dry air on Sat and early Sun. If he handles it well, I will get concerned....because Cat 3-4 could then become a real possibility.

And 90L is easily a TD.
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...ERNESTO...

NHC FORECASTS A HURRICANE ON DY 5 NEARING THE YUCATAN. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...ALLOWING US TO MOVE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SWIFTLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON DY 6/7. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC
CONCERNING ERNESTO.



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It's clear that the NHC was about to upgrade 90L but either they're simply not updating the ATCF file which would make no sense, or something came in that caused them to change their minds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well one, Ernesto is already in the East Caribbean, lol. Second, if anything, Invest 91L will erode the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and help Ernesto move more poleward.


So what is your current thinking? It seems the models are converging on a Texas event but anywhere in the Western and Central gulf from Northern Mexico to MS/AL should watch this system as it all depends on strength...I would say my bullseye if i had to make one would be from Texas/Mexico border to Vermilion Bay
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3214. cg2916
Quoting Bluestorm5:
This blog will be in overdrive once Ernesto is closer to Gulf of Mexico... just saying.


It just about is already.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
i think the models should shift north because ernesto is stronger
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
look at the thunderstorm activity with the feature coming in behind 90L

Link
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3210. pottery
Quoting ironbark:
does galveston look like it is in its path

Much too early to tell.
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3209. Grothar
I have to go take a nap. Too much excitement for me. I sure picked a bad day to quit Metamucil. Play nice and see you at 10:53 just in time for TropicalAnalyst to press the F8 button and get the report before anybody else. Poor guy doesn't know I get it 10 minutes before. Later boys and girls.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Most recent? trend back west?


They certainly look more west overall than earlier today.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.