Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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3306. cg2916
Quoting SETexas74:
Question: What factors does the NHC use to decide on the time interval of updates on tropical systems? I remember some storms being updated every three hours, but it seems others, such as Ernesto, are being updated every 6.


6 is the default. 3 if they have watches or warnings. 2 if they can get a look at a clear COC on radar.
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3305. scott39
I said last night that Ernesto had the potiential to "bomb"(very fast RI) in the NW Caribbean. This is a very concerning suprise in the Eastern Caribbean. Ernesto is going to be a very dangerous storm. Texas landfall...maybe. I am looking more towards a central/north Gulf Coast strike if he continues to strengthen. 91L is going to set up an invitation for Ernesto to take a more northerly track.
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John Hope on Hurricane Gilbert, the real TWC
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yes....we can!!!!



no we dont have a TD at 11
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3302. hydrus
Quoting Bluestorm5:
They changed it back to invest
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21869
Quoting Tazmanian:



you are vary worng there


that' Ernesto to the left


that's 91L, A WAVE to the left
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I was just reviewing today's temperature extremes for the State of Florida. Opa Locka, FL (near Miami) cooled down into the mid 60s F during an afternoon thunderstorm today. At 1:27 p.m., the temperature was 66 F after being in the 90s around noon. This is pretty remarkable-an afternoon temperature in the mid 60s in SE Florida in August, must be some kind of record. I have never seen it this cool at any time during July or August in Orlando.
Must have been a strong storm with big downdrafts and hail?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting hydrus:
Ernesto will be a large and intense storm. I will not say how strong, people will think I am a doomcaster, which I am not. I just ran across this, the storm that beat the crap out of us while we still had blue tarps on what was left of our roofs from Charley..Cant forget Andrew.


There are still blue tarps around here. From which storm I've lost track.
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Quoting Tropicalupdate:
So do we have a TD at 11?
Yes....we can!!!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5655

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sorry for intervene...
yes, you're right..

this is how it goes... intensity wise

for an invest
DB
LO

then
TD
TS
HC
No, thanks for answering lol
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3294. 19N81W
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
"Ernesto" still looks like a tropical wave, tbh.

I am a doubter as much as u but really? Given the ir now.....a wave?
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3291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cg2916:


Where do you get TCFA's?


Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 90L
August-03-12, 9:30:01 PM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
Issued: Fri 03 Aug 2012 22:30Z
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Question: What factors does the NHC use to decide on the time interval of updates on tropical systems? I remember some storms being updated every three hours, but it seems others, such as Ernesto, are being updated every 6.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Watch out when it gets past 75W

It looks like Ernesto will miss us Texans... thinking maybe a Camille analogue.
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3288. cg2916
Ernesto looks pretty good on the WV. It seems to have formed an envelope of moist air in front of it so the dry air won't have as much of an effect.

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I was just reviewing today's temperature extremes for the State of Florida. Opa Locka, FL (near Miami) cooled down into the mid 60s F during an afternoon thunderstorm today. At 1:27 p.m., the temperature was 66 F after being in the 90s around noon. This is pretty remarkable-an afternoon temperature in the mid 60s in SE Florida in August, must be some kind of record. I have never seen it this cool at any time during July or August in Orlando.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
"Ernesto" still looks like a tropical wave, tbh.



you are vary worng there
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I BET in the post analysis, the NHC would say TD 6 formed 12 - 18 earlier than when it was classified.... why ?

I don't know what else they want from this low... and now it's a disturbance
WTF??
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Watch out when it gets past 75W
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3280. yqt1001
Quoting alcomat:
Woo Hoo !! Come on Death and Destruction !! gotta love this economy, especially when you throw in a major Hurricane !! No electricity, no food,no water !! gotta love it !! I am pretty sure your economy in Florida is bad or more than likely, worse than the rest of the country!! Why do you want a Hurricane?? Just wondering ? Not trying to be Rude, just saying. I love to track these storms, but I dont forecast or look forward to every one of them coming my way..


Death and destruction is the best way to rebuild and grow an economy.

Of course it generally has to be on a larger scale than a hurricane.
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Quoting hydrus:
Ernesto will be a large and intense storm. I will not say how strong, people will think I am a doomcaster, which I am not. I just ran across this, the storm that beat the crap out of us while we still had blue tarps on what was left of our roofs from Charley..Cant forget Andrew.


Soo.... it took you 12 years to get your roof back?

um, ok....
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3277. cg2916
Quoting hydrus:
I thought that was T.D.6 already.


They revised it.
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3276. pottery
Post 3257.

I have never seen a statement like that before.

Contradictions, anyone ?
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Quoting hydrus:
I thought that was T.D.6 already.
They changed it back to invest
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Quoting washingtonian115:
WXGeekVA did.


we need him to put it up...
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Nicer map

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3272. alcomat
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
TD 6 may go to S FL!!
Woo Hoo !! Come on Death and Destruction !! gotta love this economy, especially when you throw in a major Hurricane !! No electricity, no food,no water !! gotta love it !! I am pretty sure your economy in Florida is bad or more than likely, worse than the rest of the country!! Why do you want a Hurricane?? Just wondering ? Not trying to be Rude, just saying. I love to track these storms, but I dont forecast or look forward to every one of them coming my way..
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Quoting hydrus:
I thought that was T.D.6 already.




nop
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is very obviously a tropical depression. It would be ridiculous not to classify it at 11 pm EDT.



The renumber usually comes an hour and a half before the advisory time. Maybe they reverted it because it was too early?


I agree
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3269. cg2916
Quoting weatherman566:
Regarding 90L:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 26.1W TO 13.6N 34.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 26.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 032200Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IM-
AGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADU-
ALLY IMPROVING UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED


Where do you get TCFA's?
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Quoting weatherman566:
Regarding 90L:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 26.1W TO 13.6N 34.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 26.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 032200Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IM-
AGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADU-
ALLY IMPROVING UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
What does this mean?
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3267. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is very obviously a tropical depression. It would be ridiculous not to classify it at 11 pm EDT.



The renumber usually comes an hour and a half before the advisory time. Maybe they reverted it because it was too early?
I thought that was T.D.6 already.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21869
3266. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting TomTaylor:
Got another question for you nrt, is there any difference between the designation "low" and "disturbance" for the atcf file? For example, invest 90l was first a disturbance, then it became a low, and now it is a disturbance again. Judging by the pressure readings, my guess is that "low" would be a slightly higher developed system than a "disturbance" but please correct me if I'm wrong.

AL, 90, 2012080212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 178W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 117N, 200W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 217W, 30, 1009, DB,
AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 122N, 231W, 30, 1006, LO,
AL, 90, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 125N, 245W, 30, 1006, LO, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2012080318, , BEST, 0, 129N, 259W, 30, 1006, LO, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB,


They don't specifically list them in order of development, just under the category "Highest level of tc development". In my mind a LO would be a higher level than a DB.

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
Quoting bwi:
Looking at the low-level clouds out in front of Ernesto on the sat loop just before sunset, it sort of looks like the storm is taking control of the low-level winds, with more of a N-S motion rather than E-W. So maybe the trade winds are being affected more by the approaching storm than the storm is being stretched forward by the low level winds. Just a thought.
As TropicalAnalystwx13 alluded to the Trade Winds have weakened over the past couple of days.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting pottery:

Looks to be building more convection north too.



yep
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NHC WHY YOU NO ISSUE ADVISORIES!!!!
who has a picture about that???
WXGeekVA did.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17492
3259. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
Ernesto has really slow down right now or even stalled it i say is moveing at 10 or 15mph but there no way it is moveing like it was this AM

Looks to be building more convection north too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is very obviously a tropical depression. It would be ridiculous not to classify it at 11 pm EDT.



The renumber usually comes an hour and a half before the advisory time. Maybe they reverted it because it was too early?



likey so what see what happen by 9pm
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Regarding 90L:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 26.1W TO 13.6N 34.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 26.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 032200Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IM-
AGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADU-
ALLY IMPROVING UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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