Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Wondering when the next Super Storm will be born...one that reaches 150mph
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We have TD6... I think.
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There, TD Six is back. Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Tropical Depression 6.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al062012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208040149
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23927
3351. nigel20
Quoting hydrus:

Ernesto is looking very good at the moment...hopefully it will pass to our south.
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IMO this is no longer a 50mph tropical storm...when we can actually get a recon plane in there I think the intensity will be greater
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What time are the HH going out??
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there we go



AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD,
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How's that?

invest_RENUMBER_al902012_al062012.ren

AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M,
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto has proven he can strengthen in the East Caribbean, and it is likely that he will do so as he crosses the Central Caribbean as well. A stronger storm will tend to move more north. Once in the NW Caribbean, I still see this undergoing rapid, or even explosive, intensification and Ernesto may be a major hurricane entering the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.


Unfortunately I think this is probably right.

I thought as much myself, but I've lately rather wait on smarter people or at least someone else to say the same.

Right now there's even a few outlying ensemble members that do some scary crap with this storm, but I'll leave that alone.

Look at the SST anomalies along a Yucatan Channel track.



As I expected, this has slightly warmed since yesterday, including the w. caribbean.


I don't think cat 3 is out of the question at all, especially since I don't even see what the next source of shear would be over the w. caribbean or Gulf. There appears to be nothing in play for at least a few days.
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3345. nigel20
Good evening everyone!
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3343. Walshy
Quoting fsumet:
Top 10 Analogs for Ernesto are interesting. Not one of the analogs made it to the US. This isn't saying it won't happen, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Top 10 Analogs for Ernesto


Look again??
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Quoting hydrus:
I am starting to think Ernesto may be trying to reach hurricane status by tomorrow morning.
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3341. cg2916
Does the SSD or any other organization archive GOES satellite data?
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3340. fsumet
Top 10 Analogs for Ernesto are interesting. Not one of the analogs made it to the US. This isn't saying it will or will not make it to the Gulf, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Top 10 Analogs for Ernesto
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Posting a lot this evening, but I also wish that, once a storm has formed, it hits the U.S, because our warning systems, infrastructure, and housing is far superior to most of Central America. Of course, turning away to sea is the best scenario, but, loosing power for a week and picking up branches in the U.S is much better than having your home washed away in other countries.
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3338. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
3337. JLPR2
Quoting yqt1001:
Ernesto continues to develop with each frame.



The CDO is much more symmetrical and starting to cool once again. Banding is starting to develop on the south eastern quadrant.


Really giving us a show tonight, finally Ernesto looks like a TS.
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Quoting hydrus:
We did tremendous amounts of work on "hurricane houses" after Charley...It was a sad and difficult job with many health hazards and dangerous conditions.Everybody did a great job and worked very hard..Many were beyond repair and whole neighborhoods disappeared.
Charley was a nasty storm... a Category 4 at landfall
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wow invest 90L even looks like a low end TS(much more defined than some storms in the past) oh come on it deserves TD status!
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Ernesto's outer edge is bringing in some rain here in PR. I'm not complaining, though.
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Wish some of you would join the chat room...
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3332. hydrus
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


There are still blue tarps around here. From which storm I've lost track.
We did tremendous amounts of work on "hurricane houses" after Charley...It was a sad and difficult job with many health hazards and dangerous conditions. Everybody did a great job and worked very hard..Many were beyond repair and whole neighborhoods disappeared.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time are the HH going in



here the link


Link


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THX!!!:)
Quoting cg2916:


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb

Then go to invest_al052012.invest
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3327. 19N81W
My pic is about 100miles east of Yqt heading back to yyz neat place
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What time are the HH going in
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3325. cg2916
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't think Ernesto needs t get to the western Caribbean to start intensifying... does it?


It doesn't need to, but the western Caribbean is like rocket fuel for Ernesto.
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Quoting yoboi:



howzit goin taz....



going good
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast:

Not Official.

Disclaimer: This post IS NOT MEANT TO CAUSE ALARM. It is simply my assessment of the situation. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official information.

Intensity:

Low shear, high TCHP in the western Caribbean. I expect a major hurricane prior to reaching the Yucatan. This will be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico

Track:

A stronger storm will be pulled further north by
the trough, which is why I am right now discounting
the models that take it into the southern BOC. In addition, there is still somewhat of a surface ridge off the coast of Florida and Ernesto should rotate about the periphery of this ridge while being pulled north by a trough to the west that will arrive Sunday into Monday. The surface ridge periphery should keep it west of Florida, and the trough should pull it north around the periphery into the Northwest Gulf near TX/LA.
I think the best possibility for future landfall
will be Texas or Louisiana as a Major Hurricane.
The greatest concern I have is the ridiculously low
shear in the western Caribbean and how this may allow for Ernesto to become a formidable hurricane.

Recommendations:

Residents of Texas, Louisiana, and Northern Mexico should look over their hurricane plans and check if they have all supplies ready in the event of a hurricane.


I agree that the southern BOC seems unreasonable. I have been feeling that the landfall will be Louisiana/Mississippi but TX/Louisiana could very well also be reasonable.
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3322. cg2916
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Were do you get this??
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb

Then go to invest_al052012.invest
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Quoting yqt1001:
Ernesto continues to develop with each frame.



The CDO is much more symmetrical and starting to cool once again. Banding is starting to develop on the south eastern quadrant.


I don't think Ernesto needs t get to the western Caribbean to start intensifying... does it?
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3320. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:





the point is your trying too make too me ?



howzit goin taz....
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3319. yqt1001
Quoting 19N81W:

Yqt u mean a war? Are u from thunder by the way?


I do mean war, yes. And yes, I am also from Thunder Bay. :P
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Quoting RTSplayer:


From what I understand from center fixes, it averaged 16mph over the past 3 hours.

However, I'd caution about any assumptions from that, because earlier it was poorly organized and might not have been as well defined when they had the center fix, so it could be as much of a "reposition" of the coordinates as a change in velocity.



would be nic if we had a recon in there
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Where do you get this??
AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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3316. yqt1001
Ernesto continues to develop with each frame.



The CDO is much more symmetrical and starting to cool once again. Banding is starting to develop on the south eastern quadrant.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


There are still blue tarps around here. From which storm I've lost track.


My neighbors finally fixed their blue-tarped roof from Ike, after buying 2 new Mercedes' in the interim. Most of the blue roofs are from laziness or ongoing insurance struggles.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Ernesto has really slow down right now or even stalled it i say is moveing at 10 or 15mph but there no way it is moveing like it was this AM


From what I understand from center fixes, it averaged 16mph over the past 3 hours.

However, I'd caution about any assumptions from that, because earlier it was poorly organized and might not have been as well defined when they had the center fix, so it could be as much of a "reposition" of the coordinates as a change in velocity.
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3313. Gorty
Quoting weatherman566:
Regarding 90L:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 26.1W TO 13.6N 34.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 26.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 032200Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IM-
AGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADU-
ALLY IMPROVING UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED


When they say "significant tropical cyclone" how strong do they think it will get?
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3312. 19N81W
Quoting yqt1001:


Death and destruction is the best way to rebuild and grow an economy.

Of course it generally has to be on a larger scale than a hurricane.

Yqt u mean a war? Are u from thunder by the way?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that' Ernesto to the right


that's 91L, A WAVE





the point is your trying too make too me ?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yes....we can!!!!
I hope we do I am getting mad. Dr.Knabb NHC dirctor said HH wiil go out to invsteigate the low off of Florida tom. afternoon.
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Quoting redwagon:

It looks like Ernesto will miss us Texans... thinking maybe a Camille analogue.
I hope not...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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